First marathon - realistic time goal to train for?

Supercell

While i'd love to aim for a sub three, I'm coming to realise that's unrealistic for my first marathon.
From my training 4.5min per km to 4.75km per km seems pretty reasonable and doable to me, which gives me a range of 3'10" to 3'30" I think for the full marathon.
Small as the difference is between between the numbers its a massive difference in effort to shave off every second per km.

So starting out i can just about manage a 20km run at 4.5km pace..is it realistic to expect that if I train well and don't go out on the lash every weekend that i can build this to the full 42.2 km?, or is it more realistic to aim for the 3.5 hour time time? (4.75 mins per km seems like a pretty leisurely pace, but haven't tried it over 20km yet).

I'm going to follow this training plan for the Dublin City marathon. This guide is fairly detailed as to the correct pace to do on each run and i want to make sure I'm optimising my chances of being able to make my target come race day.

I don't want to set myself a unrealistic goal and end up injured and not managing to complete it or even start it.
Any sage advice from experienced marathoners most gratefully received!

911sc

Hard to tell, entirely depends on your endurance capabilities.
Running the first 30/32km at a set pace if not really an issue, but maintaining that set pace for the last 12/10km is the issue.

If you "can just about manage" say 21.1km @ 4:30, that's 1h35min for the half.
(which is very good imo, i'd be happy with that!). Rule of thumb is to double that and add 15min for the full, hence 3h25.

i can just about manage 20km run at 4.5km pace

That's need attention, but you should be able to overcome that with training. You need to be able to run very comfortably that distance at your set pace to have a chance of keeping it until the end.

Considering it will be your first marathon, there are many unknown parameters which will come into play. But you should be able to discover some during some very long runs.

Go initially for a sub 3h30min...

TFBubendorfer

Supercell wrote: »

So starting out i can just about manage a 20km run at 4.5km pace..is it realistic to expect that if I train well and don't go out on the lash every weekend that i can build this to the full 42.2 km?

The first marathon is usually an eye opener. Not many runners, including some very good ones, ran faster than 3:20 for their first.

I wouldn't say it's unrealistic to hold that pace for the entire distance, but it's an ambitious target.

cfitz

How about starting an autumn half marathon programme now, and doing the same again for spring (hopefully breaking 80 minutes), and then go for sub-3 in Dublin 2010?

chinguetti

If you looking for a 3.30 marathon, you would need to be able to run 10 miles in 1hr 20 comfortably. You would need to do 8 mins a mile to make 3.30.

To do 3 hrs 30 in your first marathon is a great achievement. It really takes alot out of you and you'll learn more in the last 6 miles than any amount of training you do.

Supercell

Thanks guys, it seems like I should be aiming for a 3'30" for the first one then.
This seems totally doable to me right now, then again I haven't put in the real distance yet, I think I'll aim for a 3'20" and be satisfied with anything sub 3'30".

cfitz, what you suggest does appeal but i think for me attempting a sub three without having done one before is just likely to result in injury, I don't have enough natural talent to do that. I thought I could do a sub three before, but with about 6 months running under my belt now, a sub three aint happening for another six months minimum!

So sub 3'30" is going to be my Dublin '09 goal and sub 3 my '10 goal in Beijing. Anyone ever ran the Beijing marathon?, sorry going off topic!