The overall picture: The Locals

nesf

So the Local Election results nationally are interesting: (versus 2004 local results)

FF: 23.9% (-6.5%)
FG: 31.6% (+4.3%)
Lab: 17.1% (+3.7%)
SF: 7.4% (-1.2%)
Green: 2.8% (-1.8%)
Other: 17.2% (+1.4%)

So, versus the poll results of late, Labour and SF disappoint, the Greens and FF do predictably poorly and FG are set to become the largest party at local government level. That said, Labour have increased their vote over 2004 nicely and are already picking up "new" seats down in Cork from the tallies I've been looking at, so even though they didn't manage to make it into 20% territory in the overall vote they've strengthened their base well here.. Disappointing results for Sinn Fein since this was a protest vote election if there ever was one and they lost some of the protest vote they'd captured in 2004. The Greens may lose enough seats to make staying in Government very hard for them to do (when one takes into account that if put to a vote it's the general party members, not the parliamentary party members who decide the issue).

Overall, much pain for the Government parties and much joy (or consternation) for the Opposition parties. Surely the biggest question has to be how SF managed to lose votes on 2004 given the huge protest vote that was out in force on Friday. Definitely a time for a party rethink there.

turgon

State of the parties
One has to remember that FG's growth here has nothing really to do with FG. Its just because they are the main opposition, and to be fair, they should be performing even higher. Fianna Fail is literally there for the raping. I think Kenny should resign in lieu of Bruton. I would still vote for FG as the least worst regardless, but the fact is that many people are disheartened by his lack of charisma. He should put party over person.

I think the only possibility of the Government collapsing is the Greens freaking out over the demise.

Sinn Fein do indeed need a rethink. I think they have to position themselves as a viable hard left party. This means condemning McCabe killers and distancing them from the violence. Because at the moment they are not considered in the same vein the parties are. They really are "that party."

Change in Irish Political Landcape
There is much talk of this being a change in the political landscape. I think it has the possibility to, but these locals need to be accompanied by a FF trouncing in the General elections too. The the mindset will have changed to FG's advantage.

A (off-topic) question to ponder: FG are 33 seats off of a full majority in the Dail. If they had an extremely capable leader could they get somewhere near this and make up the rest with independent allowing them freedom from Labours trade unionist shackles?

old boy

the co. council elections do not count for schite, what say do they have in the lenster house next week

LostinBlanch

old boy wrote: »

the co. council elections do not count for schite, what say do they have in the lenster house next week

Well, "most" senators are elected by county councillors so it'll have an effect on the makeup of the next senate. Whenever that is.

Dob74

Labour probably should of had more candidates.
They did well in Cork City +1. But if they had 2 people running in more wards they would have got more seats.

Riskymove

nesf wrote: »

So, versus the poll results of late, Labour and SF disappoint, the Greens and FF do predictably poorly and FG are set to become the largest party at local government level. That said, Labour have increased their vote over 2004 nicely and are already picking up "new" seats down in Cork from the tallies I've been looking at,

I think you shoudl remember that FF did quite badly at the last local elections (although they recovered in time for GE:mad:)

anyway my point is that the change since 1999 would look even better for Labour

galwayrush

I think FG will go even higher if Kenny is replaced as leader.

nesf

Riskymove wrote: »

I think you shoudl remember that FF did quite badly at the last local elections (although they recovered in time for GE:mad:)

anyway my point is that the change since 1999 would look even better for Labour

Indeed. Labour have been making good progress over the past decade. The thing is that by not running enough candidates and failing to run any in some areas, they are failing to capitalise on their much higher polling numbers. It takes ages to build up political machines on the ground, and in fairness to Labour they have been doing this nationally for a decade at this point.

For FF this was losing from an already punishing position from 2004.