How big a factor will Demographics be in South Dublin property market?

leonardjos

I've been looking at houses in areas such as Dundrum, Sandyford, Churchtown, Rathfarnham for the last year waiting for prices to come down from cloud-cuckooland. I have viewed lots of houses who's asking prices came close to reality, and I found that most of these were executor sales.

Recently I have noticed that the age profile of most of these older surburban housing estates is quite aged. And I'm sure the same could be said for a lot of areas in South Dublin.

So my question is what effect continuing executor sales will have on house prices in these areas? If the properties currently for sale aren't shifting, and each year more and more houses come onto the market, then surely a price collapse is imminent over the coming years? Of course I know that prices are collapsing at the moment, but could there be a collapse on top of a collapse?!

The age profile of these areas has been noted by David McWilliams too:

Let's continue out past the inner suburbs, the original 1940s and 1950s council estates. These houses are built to last and these areas have seen a huge surge in wealth and stability since the 1980s. Gone are the Hiace vans on blocks in gardens, Hallowe'en bonfires and chippers; these have been replaced by black SUVs, holiday homes in Alicante, steady incomes and careers.

And if and when a real torrent of these houses builds up in the market, who will be able to buy them? The obvious replacement generation, people in their 30s and 40s with established careers, are probably in some degree of negative equity as a result of the property bubble. Does this mean the people who will be snapping up these houses in prime locations over the coming years will be the lowly FTBs? Will FTBs in their 20s with no financial burdens steal a march on the generation ahead of them, and be a very 'lucky generation'?! :P

I dont have much stats to back up this train of thought, but I'd be interested to hear other's opinions on this!

latenia

The people who buy these houses (I presume he's talking about places like Crumlin and Artane) will be the same type of people who lived there before the bubble: low-middle single income households with the main earner a tradesman or low ranking civil servant or working in unskilled services. What prices they command will be determined by a multiple of their wages. For example, a 3-bed mid-terrace in Crumlin will be 100-150k.
The same thing will happen in the other areas you mention. A standard 3 bed semi in Rathfarnham will be 250-350k to correlate with the salary of a middle manager or higher ranked civil servant.
The whole 'executor's sale' thing is a bit of a red herring. Realistically, it would take a huge amount of deaths in one area in a short time frame to have an effect. I'm from Rathfarnham originally and, although the demographics have changed from 20 years ago, it's hardly full of 80+ year old geriatrics at death's door.

Kipperhell

latenia wrote: »

The people who buy these houses (I presume he's talking about places like Crumlin and Artane) etc...

Pretty sure he is not talking about Artane as it is on the northside. There are quite a small portion of council houses in Artane too.
There has been a massive change in demographics in the old council estates as professional people moved into ex-corporation estates close to the cities. I lived in such a property first and my neighbours were a mix of elderly people,professionals and grandchildren of the original residents. Those that inherited often were non-professional but were clearly becoming outnumbered
The biggest change will be because of family size reduction and different lifestyles e.g. more single people. 3 bed houses are not needed as much and larger one less so.Look at what happened to the Georgian houses in Ireland and any large old properties in other countries. I think there may be many traditionally standard homes being converted into two separate places. It will just take longer now while the property market is in a slump.