Could the governement actually topple over Fridays results?

peasant

Assuming that the outcome of the elections is as desastrous for FF as some people predict ...could this actually topple the governement even though it's European and local elections only?

Would loosing the by-elections alone do it?

Would Brian cowen be forced to resign by his own back-benchers?

Would the opposition (bolstered by strong results) feel encouraged to look for a vote of no confidence in the governement?

What are your thoughts ...

Tricity Bendix

FF backbenchers wouldn't gain anything by pulling down the government. They could try and pull down Cowen, though.

The only threat comes from the Greens. If things go disasterously wrong, they might think it worth the gamble to pull the plug.

Joey the lips

tbh I dont think friday will be as bad as we all think. This has happened before and I have to say I do admire Finna Failure voters. They will come out. There is no doubt, The biggest problem is those who are disheartened or annoyed wont come out. If that vote did there would be massive changes in the council

Long term if there was massive changes in council it would become impossible for Fianna Failure to do anything!

Fratton Fred

To be honest, if it does all go horribly wrong for the government this week, i expect them to put thier heads even further in the sand and close ranks even further, in the hope of hanging on until the general election.

RayM

Tricity Bendix wrote: »

FF backbenchers wouldn't gain anything by pulling down the government. They could try and pull down Cowen, though.

The only threat comes from the Greens. If things go disasterously wrong, they might think it worth the gamble to pull the plug.

The trouble is that if they ditch Cowen and replace him with someone else (the third Taoiseach since the 2007 election), it would be pretty difficult for them to justify not looking for a fresh mandate from the people.

With regard to the Greens, if they have a reasonably decent election, they might decide that it's a good time to risk forcing a general election, rather than waiting until their vote has completely collapsed.

oscarBravo

I'd imagine it hinges on the Greens. A good result for them may see them pulling out of government, but if they don't do well, they'll hunker down for the long haul.

Dr Galen

this could go either way, but I think people are right when they say that the Greens are the important factor to watch here.

If things go badly for them, I predict that they will walk. Not straight away, but i would say a Green party meeting would be called and a motion to pull out of government would be tabled and passed. They will try and say that they championed the cause of the ordinary man, who had lost faith in the government, FF watchdog as such. Then take their chances in the inevitable General Election.

If they do ok, then I'd say it's 50/50 on them pulling out this side of the summer, but I'd hedge my bets and say that they will be gone by November. For much the same reasons.

If they make gains, and do well in general, then they will feel that they have a stronger hand to play in any re-negotiation of the programme for government, play the waiting game and take advantage of the lame duck FF that exists post-Friday.

LostinBlanch

oscarBravo wrote: »

I'd imagine it hinges on the Greens. A good result for them may see them pulling out of government, but if they don't do well, they'll hunker down for the long haul.

Look, don't for one moment ever think the Greens will relinquish their grip on power. They have no credibility at all. The best description I heard of them was tree hugging PDs and given the absolute loathing that the greens previously expressed for the PDs that says a lot.

If we were in the last 12 months of the government they would try and break for cover in some manufactured crisis.

Speaking as someone who believed all their cant about cleaning up corrupt politics in this country and someone who has consistently voted for them in the past I look forward to every single one of them being thrown out. Unlikely that every one of them will get thrown out I know but it's nothing less than they deserve.

conchubhar1

hopefully

spank_inferno

It wont bring down the government because as mentioned FF td's have nothing to benefit from it.
There may be a leadership contest, though I personaly think its unlikely.

post Friday, the government will continue as normal for the remainder of its term.
They have proved remarkably resilient to throwing in the towel considering the s**t they have come up with in the last decade.

Think of the UK
Brown is teetering on the brink because of a few innapropriate expenses claims.
Can you imagine what our guys do here by comparison!!
Yet nothing happens....

Executive Steve

I think the Greens are in a double bind really - if they walk away and topple the government they'll never be seriously considered as a reliable coalition partner ever again...

I'd say they're ruing the day they decided to cast their lot in with Fianna Fáil...