when do you think brian cowen will be replaced

johnnyc

Was reading an article on todays examiner and its recon brian cowen will be gone by september what you think

mike65

If the Lisbon re-run were defeated he'd be gone (assuming the local and eueo elections dont go well).

johnnyc

fianna fail will be wiped out in the local & european elections.

dingding

Monday week, when the election results are out.

P. Breathnach

Do you mean as leader of Fianna Fail, or do you mean that both he and his government will be gone?

Whichever you mean, his greatest protection is that nobody else really wants to take his place, at least until some more of the pain has been absorbed.

brianthebard

The longer they hold onto him as leader, the more they can blame him for everything that's happening and try and get the party in the clear. So I don't believe he will go until a general election defeat at least.

InFront

When the TDs go home for their Summer holidays and spend more time with their constituents and constituency workers as opposed to their colleagues in leinster house, I believe an unease about their electoral situation will hit those in the back benches. The revolt will start from there after the Summer break when the Dail reconvenes in September and the Government will probably be lucky to just make it to Budget 09 Episode II.

johnnyc

InFront wrote: »

When the TDs go home for their Summer holidays and spend more time with their constituents and constituency workers as opposed to their colleagues in leinster house, I believe an unease about their electoral situation will hit those in the back benches. The revolt will start from there after the Summer break when the Dail reconvenes in September and the Government will probably be lucky to just make it to Budget 09 Episode II.

Ah when the tds go back to there local constituency and see the reaction of the general public to then they will be scared sxxxxxs.They will think how can i get re-elected if the public are like this. Brian Cowen is a weak leader, any other leader would address his/her people monthly and tell then how we will and are going to get out of this mess? This goverment fly around in helicopters( costing 8,000) for the day while the general public are wondering how will i pay the mortage or worse how will i pay for the bills(food,esb,telephone etc). We are retruning to a banna republic with politicans just worried about there own pensions

mikedublin

Hopefully the international financial community / bond markets / IMF lads will see that Cowen and Co have now totally lost the support of the people, and stop lending them any more money.
If the only way that Ireland can raise more money is by having a new democratically elected govenment , then maybe Cowen will do his patriotic duty and resign.

Het-Field

Local/European Elections are insufficient to pull the Government down. Look at the Labour Party in Britain after their 2008 Local decimation. They are still standing (notwithstanding the fact that Gordon Brown is Dead Man Walking). Equally even if FF lost 100 Councellors, both bye elections and two EU seats, I feel Cowen would weather the storm, by spouting rubbish about it being a mid term election, and all governments taking a beating.

Where the difficulties will arise will be the next budget (which will be October, they can call it an early budget rather then another attempt to put their mess right). Equally, the performance of the Greens in these elections, and future polls is crucial, as they will get nervous if they poll poorly, and then pulmmet to 2% in opinion polls in the next few months.

bmaxi

mikedublin wrote: »

Hopefully the international financial community / bond markets / IMF lads will see that Cowen and Co have now totally lost the support of the people, and stop lending them any more money.
If the only way that Ireland can raise more money is by having a new democratically elected govenment , then maybe Cowen will do his patriotic duty and resign.

That would be dependent upon there being ethics in the FF party, don't hold your breath.

is_that_so

There is no real benefit in doing anything now. If FF retain a seat in each of the Euro constituencies it will be a "success" because everyone expects them to do badly. The same will apply to the locals. Irrespective of what happens Cowen will remain, mostly because FF will be mindful of how Bertie's long walk screwed them up as well as the Lisbon campaign. I still think the threat may come from the as yet unseen fees proposals, which I suspect they'll try and slip out when the Dail is in recess. This is the one fig leaf left for the Greens. Providing the Greens doesn't go into single figures, they'll be satisfied with the locals and may try to brazen things out.
Failing that it'll probably be another giant banana skin courtesy of Budget 2009 Mark 2 or 3 that'll precipitate an election. If FF do lose the next GE he'll be gone at the first available opportunity.

P. Breathnach

mikedublin wrote: »

Hopefully the international financial community / bond markets / IMF lads will see that Cowen and Co have now totally lost the support of the people, and stop lending them any more money.
If the only way that Ireland can raise more money is by having a new democratically elected govenment , then maybe Cowen will do his patriotic duty and resign.

That's venturing way into cutting off your nose to spite your face territory.

We have problems, and there is no doubt that FF-dominated governments had a major part in enabling, and even in ways assisting, things to get out of kilter.

But to wish our problems to become more severe just so that people can have an earlier opportunity to send them packing is getting the priorities wrong.

Joey the lips

Who is brien cowen!

mikemac

Joey the lips wrote: »

Who is brien cowen!

If you're going to correct the OP's spelling of Cowan, maybe check your post for spelling too

Joey the lips

mikemac wrote: »

If you're going to correct the OP's spelling of Cowan, maybe check your post for spelling too

You have just proved a fact about boards!

1. Sometimes you can say one thing but be perceived to mean another!
2. A lot of people on boards(me included cant spell)


I ment who is brien cowen as in he is gone already! ahhh I am not so bad now am i?

Max Power1

He wont be gone in the short term to medium term, for the simple reason of no-one else wanting the position (either as Taoiseach or leader of Fianna Fail Scumbags Ail)

dingding

I think the Greens are in an interesting position. Their support has collapsed at local level and the longer they support fianna fail the worse it will get. If Fine Gael pushed the government on some vote that the greens could not support because of their high moral ground, they could vote out the taoiseach, (vote of no confidence). Without going to the country the remaining parties and intependents without fianna fail could form a government.

In any event with the demise of the Greens support, his fate is sealed. It is only a matter of time.

iseethelight

He will stay for now anyway because it suits his party. He has no real public support or mandate being elected leader when Fianna Fail were in power. Any successor would be twice removed from an election/public mandate and be almost obliged to go to the people to seek a mandate for their government.


he only he will go if and it seems a big if the second lisbon is defeated. They would then say people treated it as a referendum on the Government. I feel he would then resign and we get a General Election and maybe even a lisbon 3 when the new Govt. takes office.

mikedublin

Interesting that people are now looking at a Lisbon II defeat as a trigger for Cowens resignation. I supported Lisbon the first time, but if a defeat of Lisbon II is the only way to force Cowen out, then I'd vote against it to bring that about.

P. Breathnach

mikedublin wrote: »

Interesting that people are now looking at a Lisbon II defeat as a trigger for Cowens resignation. I supported Lisbon the first time, but if a defeat of Lisbon II is the only way to force Cowen out, then I'd vote against it to bring that about.

You don't deserve to have a vote.

iseethelight

mikedublin wrote: »

Interesting that people are now looking at a Lisbon II defeat as a trigger for Cowens resignation. I supported Lisbon the first time, but if a defeat of Lisbon II is the only way to force Cowen out, then I'd vote against it to bring that about.

I feel its being viewed that way because people have the impression that the Local and European elections have no impact on sitting Governments. This is heightened by the upcoming endless ministerial soundbites "well its a mid term election-the sitting Govt always gets a voter backlash, were focusing on the business of Govt." etc,etc.
They give no impression of listening to the electorate or taking on board any criticism which leads people to look for an alternative way of sending that message ie Lisbon.

Red Alert

He is in danger of losing Lisbon if he doesn't go - if he is so interested in the good of the country he should go now so that the lisbon vote is about lisbon, not the government.

Liam Byrne

To answer the question in the thread title :

NOT. SOON. ENOUGH.

Remember that this is the idiot who, as Minister for Finance, laid the groundwork for the crash.

LostinBlanch

P. Breathnach wrote: »

You don't deserve to have a vote.

You go around and take it off him then.


Maybe you're upset at the election results, but I'd suggest stopping with those arrogant* remarks and try a little persuasion instead. Catch more flies with honey instead of vinegar and all that.



* Please note I only said the remark was arrogant

briktop

I too will be voting no to lisbon to get the FF criminals out .
as will alot of people , alot more then you realise .

P. Breathnach

briktop wrote: »

I too will be voting no to lisbon to get the FF criminals out .
as will alot of people , alot more then you realise .

Jaysus! Europe is pretty well our only hope of salvation, and you want to wreck our position in the EU because you want FF out. That would put is into really deep doo-doo -- and without any guarantee that you would achieve your objective. So, marginalised in the EU, Cowen still Taoiseach: would that make you happier?

Have some patience. You will get your general election.

P. Breathnach

LostinBlanch wrote: »

You go around and take it off him then.

Of course not.

Maybe you're upset at the election results, but I'd suggest stopping with those arrogant* remarks and try a little persuasion instead. Catch more flies with honey instead of vinegar and all that.

Isn't a bit arrogant to suggest that the election results influence my attitude? I have given very little indication of what result would please or upset me, other than making it clear that I didn't want Libertas to succeed.

I was responding to a post about using a vote for a wrong purpose; that is a misuse of one's democratic right. It's a form of playing silly buggers with people's welfare.

Dr Galen

briktop wrote: »

I too will be voting no to lisbon to get the FF criminals out .
as will alot of people , alot more then you realise .

thats an incredibly bad idea. Lisbon should not be a referendum on the government, FF or otherwise. It's an issue that could effect generations to come, long after Biffo and Co have had their day.

BERBA

P. Breathnach wrote: »

Jaysus! Europe is pretty well our only hope of salvation, and you want to wreck our position in the EU because you want FF out. That would put is into really deep doo-doo -- and without any guarantee that you would achieve your objective. So, marginalised in the EU, Cowen still Taoiseach: would that make you happier?

Have some patience. You will get your general election.

I too will be voting NO to lisbon if it means getting those FF criminals out. Its the ordinary joe paying for their mistakes at present while their developer buddies are sitting pretty.

DublinWriter

My prediction is that the Greens will walk in 2010 or 2009 in a move designed to retain some semblance of credibility with the voters and still ride out the majority of the term.

That will be the point when the long-knives of FF will be unsheathed.

goldenbrown

and say that he wants the Lisbon treaty to be passed and does not want to risk it being a poll on him, and off he goes, Brian Lenihen would be better, not much better, but at least he condescends to do interviews and answer hard questions

goldenbrown

it is not about misspelin its about tiping fasst and not loking at what you rote

LostinBlanch

P. Breathnach wrote: »

I was responding to a post about using a vote for a wrong purpose; that is a misuse of one's democratic right. It's a form of playing silly buggers with people's welfare.

Fair enough, but your reply was arrogant and not likely to change anyone's mind. There's enough people on here saying how some people shouldn't be allowed to vote because they vote the wrong way.

Well that's universal suffrage for ya, everyone gets to vote and unless you're planning on campaigning to introduce some kind of voting IQ test it's not going to change. Smart comments at posters who express a view on a way they wish to vote is more likely to make them react badly and could reinforce their vote rather than changing their minds.

Look back over the last Lisbon thread if you can bear it and see how many references there were to arrogant Yes voters telling everyone else how to vote. Now what was the result again? And think how many potential yes voters were turned off by such attitudes?

Repeating the same mistakes is likely to produce the same results. Try some persuasion instead, it's got a better chance of working.

FWIW I agree with you that Lisbon is too big to be mixed up with other issues, but everyone has to deal with the political realities and debating points with people is more likely to change their minds.