Winning Betting

readytorock

I'm trying to establish some of the traps people fall into when placing bets (backing/laying) and what i've learned over the past few years. Maybe create a do's and don'ts of betting to try to sharpen me and others up and i hope people will imput what they've learned and beliefs. So ill get it started then:

1. i've learned when i place bets bored, tired or angry i generally lose!

2. i've learned that live on tv is not always 'live'!

3. i've learned that it is very important to keep track and records of your bets to see where you are strong and weak.

4. i've learned that betting 'to keep an interest' is a recipe for constant disaster

5. i've learned that tennis betting is easy as there is no 'draw' outcome.


..........now your turn!!!

Lushed1

Totally agree with all your points. I think to be successful at winning you need the following

1. Research
2. Study
3. Discipline

If you can do this you'll win money. You've got to treat it as a business not for fun. The fun part comes watching the money in your account grow. Personally i stay away from the horses they are only animals and I don't trust them . I just do "human" bets.

Betting when depressed, tired bored, hungover etc. You'll just end up a loser. I'm just speaking just from experience but i wouldn't call myself a professional yet!;)

ErinGoBrath

Not forgetting the all important 'Dont chase your losses'.

This has done me many times over!

NabyLadistheman

Discipline is hardest for me. Try not to use Betfair as much now as it's seems easier to press a button & part with your cash as opposed to walking into a shop & placing a bet. In fact I have no online discipline

dsmythy

ErinGoBrath wrote: »

Not forgetting the all important 'Dont chase your losses'.

This has done me many times over!

To add to that, don't play up your winnings either.

legs11

ADD GREED TO THAT

I had a lot of bets in the last month vanish due to my decision to add teams onto accumulator with small odds, purely to get a higher profit

of course said teams with small odds fubared all the other hard work. [Im talking about draws, and other outcomes here]

pakalasa

Value Bet - the only way to win longterm.

Most people tend to bet on who they think will win. Always look at the value of the odds, if they are not high enough, don't bet.
Simply put you won't be winning enough to cover your losses.

Keep away from the horses aswell. I've seen the worst horse in the race win many times. Very unpredictable. A sure way to loose money.
Me - I like the 2nd & 3rd division soccer matches across Europe, you can get great value there. Very hard to do in the premiership, the markets are way too effecient.;)

Soldie

Some good points raised. Another important tip I've learned is that, regardless of what you might think, you're more than likely putting down too much money on each bet. I split my bank roll into units, each unit corresponding 1% of my bank roll, and I bet between 1 and 5 units per bet, depending on how certain I am on a particular bet. Blowing 20% of your bank roll on one bet is a quick way to go bust.

readytorock

Soldie wrote: »

Some good points raised. Another important tip I've learned is that, regardless of what you might think, you're more than likely putting down too much money on each bet. I split my bank roll into units, each unit corresponding 1% of my bank roll, and I bet between 1 and 5 units per bet, depending on how certain I am on a particular bet. Blowing 20% of your bank roll on one bet is a quick way to go bust.

thats a brilliant point actually!! I never really looked at it from that angle before. In relation to the value bets point I am split on this one. At times I think that if a team are too short odds the bet should avoided obviously but at the same time I fell if you go 'chasing' value then you tend to lose track of who you think will win instead just try to accumulate your potential winnings!! any1 feel the same?

raheny red

readytorock wrote: »

thats a brilliant point actually!! I never really looked at it from that angle before. In relation to the value bets point I am split on this one. At times I think that if a team are too short odds the bet should avoided obviously but at the same time I fell if you go 'chasing' value then you tend to lose track of who you think will win instead just try to accumulate your potential winnings!! any1 feel the same?

Yeah defo agree about over doing the value thing.

AARRRGH

1. Ignore the odds and go for low risk. (I have followed this rule for about 10 years and it has worked for me.)

2. Be honest about your betting. I used to work for a very famous bookies (in their HQ) and 99% of punters are down money. It was always a surprise to see any account which is in profit. So make sure you are tracking your bets and keeping an honest profit and loss account. The general rule is this: if the bookie hasn't closed your account, you are making a loss.

3. Be careful who you take tips from. For example, one of Ireland's most famous analysts/tipsters has massive gambling losses.

pakalasa

Value - well look at this way.
Take Chelsea, finished 3rd this year. 19 home games, they only won 11 thats 57%. Thats equivalent to 1.75 on betfair, or 1.80 to cover the commission.

So on average if you bet on all Chelsea home games you would have to get at least 1.81 on all bets, this just to break even.
Liverpool won 12 (63%) , equiv to 1.65 on Betfair.

I guarantee you you would not get these average odds on Betfair.;)

Or if you layed all Chelsea & Liverpool Home Games you would be up now - think about it

jimmysull

If you try to get rich quick, you won't!

jimmysull

pakalasa wrote: »

Value - well look at this way.
Take Chelsea, finished 3rd this year. 19 home games, they only won 11 thats 57%. Thats equivalent to 1.75 on betfair, or 1.80 to cover the commission.

So on average if you bet on all Chelsea home games you would have to get at least 1.81 on all bets, this just to break even.
Liverpool won 12 (63%) , equiv to 1.65 on Betfair.

I guarantee you you would not get these average odds on Betfair.;)

Avoid soccer completely!

Bet on Rugby or GAA instead. The score spread in these games makes it much easier to predict a winner.
For example, a last minute score in soccer can cost you a fortune, whereas in the others it is less likely to change the result
Also choose sports with no draw outcome like tennis, american football etc etc

AARRRGH

pakalasa wrote: »

Value - well look at this way.
Take Chelsea, finished 3rd this year. 19 home games, they only won 11 thats 57%. Thats equivalent to 1.75 on betfair, or 1.80 to cover the commission.

So on average if you bet on all Chelsea home games you would have to get at least 1.81 on all bets, this just to break even.
Liverpool won 12 (63%) , equiv to 1.65 on Betfair.

I guarantee you you would not get these average odds on Betfair.;)

Or if you layed all Chelsea & Liverpool Home Games you would be up now - think about it

I personally rarely bet on a team to win - it's too risky. IMO the card index is way safer.

pakalasa

jimmysull wrote: »

Avoid soccer completely!

Funny, but I like the soccer. I agree with what you are saying but I always lay straight away after a goal. I also wait until well into the match before placing a bet.
I'm on a 10 match winning streak at the moment - so feeling pretty good!:o

Asian handicapp betting is fantastic as the draw it taken out of equation. I have made more money from this than any other betting.

Chonaic

pakalasa wrote: »

Value - well look at this way.
Take Chelsea, finished 3rd this year. 19 home games, they only won 11 thats 57%. Thats equivalent to 1.75 on betfair, or 1.80 to cover the commission.

1.73 i make it, which does make a difference if your betting at a big enough level .

pakalasa wrote: »

Liverpool won 12 (63%) , equiv to 1.65 on Betfair.

1.58 to betfair.

Healio

pakalasa wrote: »

Or if you layed all Chelsea & Liverpool Home Games you would be up now - think about it

Liverpool
Won 12 HOME matches: (1.36,3,1.4,1.33,1.2,1.33,2.5,1.4,1.44,1.33,1.25,1.53 (bet365 prices))
-7.07
Drew 7: +7.00
Lost 0: 0.00

-0.07 to level stakes at bookie prices.

You would have to go at least 1 price bigger, and add comission to that.

dsmythy

readytorock wrote: »

thats a brilliant point actually!! I never really looked at it from that angle before. In relation to the value bets point I am split on this one. At times I think that if a team are too short odds the bet should avoided obviously but at the same time I fell if you go 'chasing' value then you tend to lose track of who you think will win instead just try to accumulate your potential winnings!! any1 feel the same?

I'm not sure what you are saying there. For me value should enter your mind at some point during every bet.

pakalasa

Healio wrote: »

Liverpool
Won 12 HOME matches: (1.36,3,1.4,1.33,1.2,1.33,2.5,1.4,1.44,1.33,1.25,1.53 (bet365 prices))

Yep you're right - 1.58 on both counts, average of above and (12/19).
I'm surprised by the 3 & the 2.5, I remember them down around 1.4~1.5 only.
Prooves how efficient the market really is. You can't win!

Healio

pakalasa wrote: »

Yep you're right - 1.58 on both counts, average of above and (12/19).

Your 1.75 looks correct to me. when converting to BF prices:

its (100/percent) = betfair price, so 100/57 = 1.75.

pakalasa wrote:

I'm surprised by the 3 & the 2.5, I remember them down around 1.4~1.5 only.
Prooves how efficient the market really is. You can't win!

The 3.0 was United match, and the 2.5 was against Chelsea afaik.

Although a quick run over the figures shows a profit of 4.50 to level stakes on Chelsea's home matches!!

pakalasa

No it was Liverpool that had 12 home wins so
12/19 = 0.631579 or 1.5833 when divided into 100

Chelsea had 11 so
11/19 = .57847 or 1.7272 just to be exact

Where did you get the past Betfair odds. I went in to this link before but the data was a huge Excel file of all the traded bets would have taken forever to get through.

http://data.betfair.com/

Healio

pakalasa wrote: »

No it was Liverpool that had 12 home wins so
12/19 = 0.631579 or 1.5833 when divided into 100

Chelsea had 11 so
11/19 = .57847 or 1.7272 just to be exact

Where did you get the past Betfair odds. I went in to this link before but the data was a huge Excel file of all the traded bets would have taken forever to get through.

http://data.betfair.com/

I didnt get past BF odds, they were bet365 odds.
From this site: http://www.football-data.co.uk/

Generally these odds are a bit below the BF line because most bookmakers wont lay arbs, although PP, and I think Hills, the odd time take an opinion and will keep there price for a while even when the betfair price is below.

Headshot

jimmysull wrote: »

Avoid soccer completely!

I only bet on the soccer since its the only sport i follow,and iv came out good this season

I find it funny that iv never won any money on utd,most of my money this season has been on liverpool

readytorock

i find if i am betting on football, double chance is a great way. yes the odds will be shorter but your getting 2 bets against 1 so the odds are already stacked in your favour. And even if the team i havnt backed score you can very easily lay the bet on betfair to make some profit no matter what.

BERBA

It's a mugs game. Show me a poor bookie! fact.

AARRRGH

BERBA wrote: »

It's a mugs game. Show me a poor bookie! fact.

It's a mugs game for 99% of people. Everyone wants to be in the 1%.

BERBA

AARRRGH wrote: »

It's a mugs game for 99% of people. Everyone wants to be in the 1%.

Too true. I'm bigtime well and truly in that 99% category!

CheltenhamJ

use oddschecker as much as possible and eek out value , also keep a record of ALL bets both cash and online , dont be led by morning market movers

aargh - would be interested to hear who the analyst with gambling losses is

PCPhoto

easiest money to make is from the local events: GAA, Eircom League, local soccer ..... you can get inside knowledge if you watch these closely and beat the bookie.

I tend to combo bet between various sports events: choose 1 team from 5 sports and there you have a 5 team accumulator.

too many people bet on the premiership - try to watch/keep an eye on 1div, 2nd div, etc all the way to the conference.

As another poster said: tennis, American Football must have a winner - no draw !!

similarly motor racing - the problem is that when you actually make money from the bookie - they close your account.....seems like they can take your money but are slow to pay it out.

it does take discipline and understanding of stats ..... betting is a loosers game - 'cos if you win they stop you betting.