Chip & A Chair - The odds?

383Ger

Was playing the €20 rebuy tournie in the Fitz last Wednesday and ended up all-in with another player when my set was beaten by his straight. At that stage there were 12 players left with ave stack of 35k (which I had). The blinds were 800/1500 antes 100. After my losing tussle I was left with a single 100 chip, and so I was all in the next few hands, and each of these I won and somehow managed to get my stack back up again. I made the final table with approx 50k, and then by 2am with 2 other players left (incl The General) we did a 3-way split of the first 3 prizes. It left me thinking afterwards a) I had gotten unbelievably lucky to get back in and b) What were the odds of that actually happening? Are there too many variables for a rough calculation or what do more experienced players think? Has it happened to anyone else here on boards?

Mr.Plough

Kids got alligator blood. Can't get rid of him

mdwexford

211/1

dougee19

once played a heads up sng, put a guy all in bar 1 on river he flat calls and I win the hand

blinds were at 30/60, I lose the sng with a 2999/1 chip lead...
I still do it, but one would think I would learn my lesson.
Most tilted I've ever been after losing $10

RoundTower

there are about 420k chips in play. In general your chances of winning are proportionate to the amount of chips you have, so it looks like you were about 4200/1 to win. However this is wrong for very small stacks, especially with antes involved. Lets say on each of the first few hands when you were forced all in, you had a 1/3 shot of winning. This is reasonable because you probably usually have 1 or 2 opponents, but they mostly have better hands.

So you go from 100 -> 600 -> about 2500 -> about 8500 about 1 time in 27. At that point you have 1/50 the chips in play so you win it about 1/50 times. 1 in 27 times 1 in 50 is about 1 in 1400.

Of course you didn't actually win all the chips, but let's say you had 1/3 the chips in play at the end, then you can divide the number above by 1/3 to get 1/400. If you are really good at poker you might have a significant edge on your opponents, so it might be 1/200 or 1/300 instead.

Whyno

It all depends on how much holy water ya drank before ya started to play

kennyrsb

exact same thing happened to me in the fitz one night

383Ger

Thanks Roundtower...your figures make sense...and I did get very lucky in the initial period, hitting 2 pairs, pocket aces etc....i did have such a strong feeling before I played that I was going to cash top 3 that night also, so I had a quiet word with the poker gods and it seems they listened

RichieLawlor

383Ger wrote: »

Thanks Roundtower...your figures make sense...and I did get very lucky in the initial period, hitting 2 pairs, pocket aces etc....i did have such a strong feeling before I played that I was going to cash top 3 that night also, so I had a quiet word with the poker gods and it seems they listened

forget the numbers, theres your answer right there imo

a-k-47

i hate these disguised brag posts :P nice result ... saw it happened in the se few year ago. LL did it in drawdaaa

Grafter

Marty Smyth did it on the telly, with only one generous double up from Liam Flood to get him started.

Icarus152

RoundTower wrote: »

there are about 420k chips in play. In general your chances of winning are proportionate to the amount of chips you have, so it looks like you were about 4200/1 to win. However this is wrong for very small stacks, especially with antes involved. Lets say on each of the first few hands when you were forced all in, you had a 1/3 shot of winning. This is reasonable because you probably usually have 1 or 2 opponents, but they mostly have better hands.

So you go from 100 -> 600 -> about 2500 -> about 8500 about 1 time in 27. At that point you have 1/50 the chips in play so you win it about 1/50 times. 1 in 27 times 1 in 50 is about 1 in 1400.

Of course you didn't actually win all the chips, but let's say you had 1/3 the chips in play at the end, then you can divide the number above by 1/3 to get 1/400. If you are really good at poker you might have a significant edge on your opponents, so it might be 1/200 or 1/300 instead.

You should take up poker.

MrStuffins

Happened to me too. 1 chip and 20 players left. Complete luck coz i was so tilted that i kept going all-in over and over just for the pain to go away.

But i kept winning, and somehow i ended up winning the tournie.

I vowed never to play poker again as obviously that was all of my luck used up in one tournie.

Should've taken my own advice!

corkie123

i seen it once guy had only ante left and won tourie.

odds cant really be done as u had to go all in few times and in each of those times u had maybe different amount of players against u . with u having better or worse hd against u each time .

in saying that you are just a poxie guy to win the first few hds after that we give u good play :D