Opinion polls - media missing the point

A Primal Nut

Am I the only one getting deja vu about the media rambling on about how bad Fianna Fail are going to do. This happens every election and usually FF end up winning by a landslide. And then they wonder "how were the opinion polls so wrong?"

Of course, the reason is because people vote by candidate, not by party. Fianna Fail are the most shrewd when it comes to appointing experienced, popular local characters whose father/uncle/brother probably used to hold the same seat. So no matter how unpopular the party may seem, they always get enough seats to remain in power. I know this myself, my father hates Fianna Fail but feels compelled to vote for an old friend who runs in the general election in his constituency (he's now a Minister) - but as he hates the idea of voting for the local guy rather than the party, he decides not to vote for the FF candidate. Of course he is right, National Politics plays a much more important role in our lives than local politics (tax, public spending, job creation) I really can't think of anything our local candidates have every done for me. Therefore it is important to vote for the party, rather than candidate.

However, most people will always vote for the local candidate, and hence Fianna Fail will do well in the upcoming election, especially in the local elections. And so, like after every other election, everyone will be wondering what happened. The fact is that people's opinion of each individual party is irrelevant, its the candidates that matter. Therefore, it is necessary to perform opinion polls of each candidate in each constituency, because performing a national opinion poll on each of the parties is irrelevant. Do the media genuinely not understand this, or do they just think they can sell more papers by predicting Fianna Fail's demise and then even more by analysing how everyone got it all wrong?

Dob74

FF will still do ok. They will probably end up getting between 25 and 30%.
The problem is they got 42% in the last election so a drop of 15% will hurt.(the same as the 79 election when they went from 50 to 35)
If the greens get decimated they could pull the plug on the gov.

Dalfiatach

30% of the population would vote FF if they put up Hitler, Stalin and a dead donkey as candidates. That's the woeful reality, about one third of the poulation are complete morons who will blindly vote for one party come what may.

This is why it's so hard to get the b'stards out of office. They might be incompetent and utterly corrupt, they might bankrupt the country repeatedly every 30 years or so (30s, 50s, late 70s and again now) but that doesn't matter to 30% of the voters.

So all FF ever have to do in every election is to rely on that solid 30% and convince another 10-15% of the electorate to vote for them, either by making whatever promises the voter wants to hear; by threatening that by not voting FF the goodies will be taken away; or simply relying on the "me too" camp follower idiot voter who will always vote for whichever party seems to be winning.

These floaters will then cheerfully invent all sorts of mad illogical justifications to explain to themselves why they went and voted for an organisation they know to be gangsters. "Ah sure der all de same, sure didn't I know his da, sure better the devil ye know" blah blah blah. Same old guff every time. Ever read Dirk Gently's Holistic Detective Agency by Douglas Adams? The OP is full of the same pseudo-justifications.

FF have their near-permanent lock on power for the last 70 years because of this. The others only get in from time to time by mistake, when FF deliberately throw an election, or when some of that 30% die-hard FF voters decide to stay at home.

The "FF no matter what" voter is the real blockage that prevents normal politics from developing in this country. FF don't need policies, never mind good ones, because they can rely on this vote. And they can be as blatant as they like about ripping the country off and lining their own pockets, because this 30% just dont care and will vote for them anyway.

It's only when everyone else realises this ugly truth and bands together to keep that 30% away from power for at least 10 years that things will ever change in Ireland.

A Primal Nut

Dob74 wrote: »

FF will still do ok. They will probably end up getting between 25 and 30%.
The problem is they got 42% in the last election so a drop of 15% will hurt.(the same as the 79 election when they went from 50 to 35)
If the greens get decimated they could pull the plug on the gov.

If the polls predict 25-30 then you can expect to end up with twice that amount, at least in terms of seats. These polls don't take into account the pull of local candidates.

The fact is the same people who complain about Fianna Fail the most are the same people who will vote for them again, for all the reasons pointed out by Dalfiatach. The worst is how time and again people fall for the "have a great final budget before the election" trick every time, and forget about the rubbish first one after the election. I think Irish people like to have someone to complain about and blame their woes on, instead of actually wanting to change things.

Sleazus

It's only when everyone else realises this ugly truth and bands together to keep that 30% away from power for at least 10 years that things will ever change in Ireland.

There's another side of that coin. There's at least thirty percent that will never vote Fianna Fail. It is - as with anything - the middle that makes the deciding call.

dennistuam

i have been out canvassing for the blueshirts the last two weeks
some of the houses we called to would so called ff houses
they give out about the levy ect but i know they will still vote for ff
only difference this time is the mess in picking candidites by interview s

ninty9er

Dob74 wrote: »

FF will still do ok. They will probably end up getting between 25 and 30%.
The problem is they got 42% in the last election so a drop of 15% will hurt.

Check your facts. FF got 22% in 2004 locals.

Dob74

ninty9er wrote: »

Check your facts. FF got 22% in 2004 locals.

42% in 07'

Thought they got 32% in the last local elections?

Maybe 22% in Dublin

ninty9er

Dob74 wrote: »

42% in 07'

Thought they got 32% in the last local elections?

Maybe 22% in Dublin

Lost 80 seats in 2004. 2007 was a General Election and is, as such irrelevant.