Fianna Fáil in danger of losing European seat - poll

Sully

Fianna Fáil is set to hold at least three of its four seats in the European Parliament, despite the slump in the party vote, but Libertas founder, Declan Ganley, is unlikely to be elected, according to the latest Irish Times /TNS mrbi poll.

The Fianna Fáil MEP at risk is Eoin Ryan in Dublin who could lose out to Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Féin in the battle for the last seat in the capital.

Another MEP in difficulty is Kathy Sinnott in the South constituency who is facing a challenge from the Labour Party and Sinn Féin.

The poll also shows that Fine Gael is facing an uphill struggle to retain its current five seats while Labour will hold its existing seat and is in with a strong chance of gaining two more.

The leading vote getter in the poll, which was conducted with mock ballot papers, is Mairead McGuinness of Fine Gael. Brian Crowley of Fianna Fáil is the second biggest vote getter in the country.

The poll was conducted from Tuesday to yesterday of this week among a representative sample of 2,000 voters. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 500 people in each of the four Euro constituencies. The margin of error is 2 per cent.

Declan Ganley of Libertas is on just 9 per cent of the first preference vote in the North West constituency and would need to double that vote to have a chance of winning a seat.

Jim Higgins of Fine Gael leads the field in the constituency with 20 per cent, closely followed by Pat “The Cope” Gallagher of Fianna Fáil on 19 per cent and Independent, Marian Harkin, on 18 per cent. Sinn Féin candidate, Padraig MacLochlainn is on 10 per cent, followed by Mr Ganely on 9 per cent. The likely winners in North West are Mr Higgins, Mr Gallagher and Ms Harkin.

In Dublin, which has lost a seat to become a three-seat constituency, Gay Mitchell of Fine Gael leads the field with 26 per cent, followed by Proinsias De Rossa of the Labour Party with 21 per cent and Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Féin with 14 per cent.

Eoin Ryan is back on 11 per cent followed by Independent, Patricia McKenna, on 8 per cent, Joe Higgins of the Socialist Party on 7 per cent, Deirdre De Burca of the Greens on 6 per cent and Eibhlin Byrne of Fianna Fail on 5 per cent. Caroline Simons of Libertas is on just 1 per cent of the vote.

While Mr Ryan will get significant transfers from his party running mate he will need to improve his first preference total to have a realistic chance of edging out Sinn Féin to hold his seat.

Source: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0515/breaking78.htm

Half expected something like this. When it comes to it, people seem to gladly vote FF. Either that or Crowleys posters without the FF logo (in a decent size) is paying off. Kenny had been warning his party about something like this and it looks like he was right.

Lots of work for the other partys if they want to make a ground breaking election me thinks.

unwyse

GOOD, the sooner peeps realise it was fianna fail who marched us into this mess the better. time to take out the thrash people,brian clowen et all.:mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad:

mike65

So FF likely to loose seat but Sully sees only bad news?!

tbh the euros don't matter too much as a barometer I think, its the locals that'll give clues of what might be FFs future.

Joey the lips

^^^ agree although they have been a subject I honestly believe the majority of irish dont give a flying fiddlers about the euro elections ^^^^

The locals will be important which is appropiate considering all politics is local

Sully

mike65 wrote: »

So FF likely to loose seat but Sully sees only bad news?!

I saw the results, FG should be doing much better in certain areas.

Daithinski

Sully wrote: »

Source: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0515/breaking78.htm

Half expected something like this. When it comes to it, people seem to gladly vote FF.

If FF changed their logo to a swastika and starting goosestepping and sieg-heiling around the dail 25% of people would still vote for them...:eek:

Donnaghm

Daithinski wrote: »

If FF changed their logo to a swastika and starting goosestepping and sieg-heiling around the dail 25% of people would still vote for them...:eek:

Except in 2002 when they got 22%.

Edit. Wait, I thought you were referring to FG. I agree, I know loads of people who express disapointment with the government and acknowledge the fact that FG have quality in their frontbench and that the Government has made serious policy error. Yet, they can't bring themselves to vote against the party of their deseased relatives. I'm sure this will change in a generation or two.

nesf

Sully wrote: »

Either that or Crowleys posters without the FF logo (in a decent size) is paying off.

Crowley's support is actually quite broad in the South and he isn't strongly associated with the parliamentary wing of the party. He's regarded as a good politician and decent person and attracts support from a much broader base than just core FF voters. He stands a very good chance of topping the poll in the South constituency in an election that's going to see FF getting hammered in the constituency in general, which says a lot about him.

2-D Man

FF will be hit very hard.
FG will make gains but not as much as they would like.
Labour will benefit the most in the current climate.
SF will continue a steady gain, nothing major but will increase.
Greens will be wiped out.
Will probably also see a few SP, SWP and WP local candidates returned.

Souljacker

For the Euros this is my prediction:

South: Brian Crowley FF, Sean Kelly, FG and Alan Kelly Lab

I'd like FG to get 2 seats but IMHO Kelly, Burke and Sinnott will be the last 3 standing and SF transfers will probably leave Kelly in the strongest position to take the final seat but it'll be very close.

North West: Jim Higgins FG, The Cope FF, Marian Harkin Ind

I think this one's probably the most certain, I can't see Ganley or MacLochlainn doing anything to close the gap, neither'll attract sufficient transfers to join the race.

East: Mairead McGuinness FG, Nessa Childers Lab, and John Paul Phelan FG

This one IMO is the most open but I'm going to be optimistic and go for the 3 I'd like to see win. FF running 2 candidates here is beyond stupid, Byrne
and Aylward will both have low 1st preference votes and given the ill will FF are feeling in the country I think the chances of them attracting transfers is nil.
Childers will pick up the disaffected FF vote and Maairead McGuinness as the biggest dead cert in the euros will carry her running mate across the line.


Dublin: Gay Mitchell FG, Proinsias de Rossa Lab and Eoin Ryan FF

the fight for the 3rd seat will definiely be between Ryan and McDonald, Higgins is going to hurt McDonald's 1st Prefs and when Byrne's elliminated her transfers may be enough to push Ryan over the line but it will be close.

I think a lot will depend where Mitchell's surplus will go, It'll be a battle between the 'anything but FFs and anything but SFs. You never know Higgins could sneak past the 2 but I think that's a case of wishing for too much.

If you're an optimist it's win win.

FG: 5 (hold)
Lab: 3 (+2)
FF: 3 (-1)
Ind: 1 (-1)

2-D Man

Current opinion poll:

Gay Mitchell (FG) - 26%
Proinsias De Rossa (Lab) - 21%
Mary-Lou McDonald (SF) - 14%
Eoin Ryan (FF) - 11%
Patricia McKenna (Ind) - 8%
Joe Higgins (Soc) - 7%
Deirdre de Burca (Green) - 6%
Eibhlin Byrne (FF) - 5%
Caroline Simons (Libertas) - 1%

(Irish Times)