A FF EU vote could be a good idea

is_that_so

I was struck with the perverse notion that voting FF in the EU elections might be a good idea. With two TDs in the running Thomas Byrne (East) and Pat "The Cope" Gallagher(Northwest) if both were elected a GE could be a lot closer than many of us expect. Based on arithmetic they would be close to a minority Govt and at risk of losing the vote of confidence which could lead to the end of the present administration.

Currently the majority is 5. If as expected non-Government parties win the bye-elections that should come down to 3. If both FF EU candidates were elected there would be a further two bye-elections. More importantly the majority would drop to 1 and put them at risk on any number of issues.

So what are FF up to to? I suspect that the candidates are gambling on the constituency size giving them enough votes to get in. They may also have decided that the writing is on the wall and hope that an EU seat might be a way out.

dave-higgz

I agree. While it's unacceptable that these candidates continue to support the party that screwed us sideways, it's worth our while sending them to Europe at the expense of a FG or Lab candidate. Party politics really doesn't apply in Europe and they'd probably do as good a job as another candidate.

turgon

The bad news: you can sit in both the Dail and the Euro Parliament simultaneously. Simon Coveney did it up to 2007 I think.

P. Breathnach

It's bad enough that people vote for candidates in European elections on the basis of their position on purely national or even local issues (10-15 minutes of the RTE1 debate this morning between candidates in the North & West constituency was taken up with cancer services in Sligo General Hospital).

Now we have this suggestion that we play silly buggers with Europe.

No thank you. I will vote for who I think might be best for Ireland in Europe.

dave-higgz

turgon wrote: »

The bad news: you can sit in both the Dail and the Euro Parliament simultaneously. Simon Coveney did it up to 2007 I think.

I thought double mandate was banned?

is_that_so

My impression on the dual mandate ban is that it applies to both EU and local seats in practice, even though it was expressly set up for local v Dail. Pat "The Cope" acknowledged that a bye-election would be likely. In real terms holding both seats would be physically impossible.

turgon

Well Coveney did do it from 2004 to 2007. Considering the Dail is nothing more than a rubber stamping agency I wouldn't think it would be that hard.

Also, do you think FF is going to push a by-election if they really really dont have to?

is_that_so

As I said the bye-election was mentioned by Gallagher. Whether that becomes a reality is another question. An opposition TD with two seats is less problematic than a sitting Govt TD, although I don't agree with anyone doing it. There is a question of votes and extended absences. You certainly could expect any opposition refusing to accept any pairing, because a TD has become a MEP. I suspect a Govt TD would not stand a chance of being elected without accepting that they probably would have to relinquish their Dail seat and I have no doubt that will come up for Byrne in the campaign.

turgon

Well election promises are just that, and FF have shown a log of gall.

I personally think that a certain time period should be established after which a by-election must occur, and ideally this would be enshrined in the constitution.

nesf

turgon wrote: »

Well Coveney did do it from 2004 to 2007. Considering the Dail is nothing more than a rubber stamping agency I wouldn't think it would be that hard.

Coveney had to step down from the EU because of the ban on holding a dual mandate that came into force after the 2007 elections. Any FF TD elected to the European Parliament would (by my understanding) have to step down from the Dáil in order to take the position.

There's nothing stopping FF delaying the by-elections for a year or something though.

Breezer

While tempting, I won't be doing it because

a) I'm in Dublin, and neither FF candidate is a sitting TD
b) What P. Breathnach said.
c) What nesf said. Sure look how long it took them to have these ones.

Tempting though.

ednwireland

i am in the consituency but i couldn't bring myself to put an x next a FF'er never have , never will

i could see FF wining a byelection up here anyway so pat the cope seemed to think it was possible

Het-Field

turgon wrote: »

The bad news: you can sit in both the Dail and the Euro Parliament simultaneously. Simon Coveney did it up to 2007 I think.

As far as im aware, that only applied to the first set of EU Elections. I dont think that applies anymore, hence why parties have the "alternate list".

It is unlikely that The Cope will get it, but it would be even more unlikely to see Byrne get in. Even if the Cope won, it is likely that Donegal would return a FF TD. Labour have no base up there, and Fine Gael have often struggled.

I doubt that we wil see any upheavel. Furthermore, FF may use their alternate list to co-opt somebody very quickly.

Darsad

Was thinking the very same as the OP when I heard that the Cope was running . I am surprised that there was not more people running in the Euro elections as it is free to stand unlike a general election but i am not sure on cost for running in the locals .

turgon

I stand corrected.

I would still be against the whole idea of electing FF to Europe.

Victor

is_that_so wrote: »

Currently the majority is 5. If as expected non-Government parties win the bye-elections that should come down to 3. If both FF EU candidates were elected there would be a further two bye-elections. More importantly the majority would drop to 1 and put them at risk on any number of issues.

If the 2 FF EU candidates get elected, the majority drops to 1. If there are bye-elections and they lose both seats, they lose their majority.

is_that_so

Indeed they would but I was merely speculating on the state of play without a by-election where they would be vulnerable with a majority of 1. Hypothetically they would lose Meath to Dominic Hannigan of Labour but would probably hold Donegal South West.