Will Sinn Fein lose their Dublin MEP Seat

tobias_wolf

looking over the last european election numbers Mcdonald won the forth seat in dublin, with dublin now only three will it be likely she will loose her seat?, or has her popularity grown(hopefully not)?, if she looses here seat will it be the end of Mary lou Mcdonald (hopefully), or has Fianna Fail completely blown it and thus giving her a chance to remain Sinn Feins immoral puppet.

dave-higgz

tobias_wolf wrote: »

looking over the last european election numbers Mcdonald won the forth seat in dublin, with dublin now only three will it be likely she will loose her seat?, or has her popularity grown(hopefully not)?, if she looses here seat will it be the end of Mary lou Mcdonald (hopefully), or has Fianna Fail completely blown it and thus giving her a chance to remain Sinn Feins immoral puppet.

Well It's fair to say that Mitchell and DeRossa are safe. The rise in FG/Lab has secured this.

But then there's the third seat. The FF backlash will weaken Eoin Ryan's chances however the recent Lisbon vote generated much support for Ms Sinn Fein. I'm one of the backlashers but I'd prefer FF over SF in this case.

Caroline Simmons, Joe Higgins, Patricia McKenna and Deirdre de Burca don't have a chance IMO, however they won't be close behind.

Scrunch

She has one of the lowest attendance records last year. Asked about this on Radio (Saturday morning) her response was that she had to take time out to have a baby.When questioned further she had the baby in 2006.
Typical bull from this 'legitimate cause / solution for everything' party.

The only thing that might get her re-elected would be the anti-FF and general protest vote. She did fail in Dublin Central in last general election when expected to win. Losing will not be unsurprising.

tobias_wolf

Fianna fail always seem to have a decent number of loyal voters who generally vote fianna fail no matter whats going on, good or bad, so maybe they have a chance of carrying a third seat,

tobias_wolf

lowest out of nearly 800 MEPs !?!?, im not surprized there not realy interested in europe,isolationist's that they are.

Firetrap

Will Sinn Féin lose their Dublin MEP Seat?

Good question. I think Eoin Ryan will no doubt suffer an anti-Fianna Fáil backlash. Whether it's enough to cost him his seat, only time will tell. Mary-Lou got in last time partly because of the novelty value; for some reason she was considered to be the glamour girl of SF and the new face of her party (rather than beardy nordies). She didn't do well in the general election so perhaps she's plateaued. I wonder will Joe Higgins do better than anticipated? Voting for him would be a protest vote without the whiff of cordite that Sinn Féin brings. He's also got the distinction of having Bertie Ahern call him a failed politician and a failed person. With the way things have turned out for Fianna Fáil, this could be a badge of honour

Scrunch

I think Joe Higgins will get a lot of votes from the backlash plus he does a good talk. Have not really hear anything about his campaign, maybe he is media-gaged and and has no money to advertise.

Would not agree with him on a lot of things and feel he does play into the suport-everything but nobody needs pay mould.

Might give him a vote, that way we won't hear from him again for 5 years

tobias_wolf

Funny.. joe higgins was always on about Nationalization of the banks..funny how things turn out...

O'Coonassa

What actual practical difference would it make who gets the seat?

Karlusss

Presumably we'd have to see less of Mary Lou if she didn't have a seat. The amount of air time she got at the last Ard Fheis was unreal.

She's female, relatively young and doesn't have a Northern accent, she's the new face of Sinn Fein... but it'd be nice if she actually showed up to the job we're paying her to do.

Scrunch

Funny.. joe higgins was always on about Nationalization of the banks..funny how things turn out...

Not for the reasons he outlined at the time, he just didn't want any private company to make profits 'off then back' of workers.

Maybe we should nationalise IBM - That way the staff would not have to work the Tuesday after a holiday weekend.

The Raven.

Karlusss wrote: »

Presumably we'd have to see less of Mary Lou if she didn't have a seat. The amount of air time she got at the last Ard Fheis was unreal.

She's female, relatively young and doesn't have a Northern accent, she's the new face of Sinn Fein... but it'd be nice if she actually showed up to the job we're paying her to do.

I think it would be far nicer if she took a slow boat to China and didn't come back anytime soon !!

I also think that Joe Higgins and Pat Rabbitte should team up and move to RTE. Their sharp wittedness is wasted on Dail Dull Eireann !!

Bottle_of_Smoke

Firetrap wrote: »

Will Sinn Féin lose their Dublin MEP Seat?

Good question. I think Eoin Ryan will no doubt suffer an anti-Fianna Fáil backlash. Whether it's enough to cost him his seat, only time will tell. Mary-Lou got in last time partly because of the novelty value; for some reason she was considered to be the glamour girl of SF and the new face of her party (rather than beardy nordies). She didn't do well in the general election so perhaps she's plateaued. I wonder will Joe Higgins do better than anticipated? Voting for him would be a protest vote without the whiff of cordite that Sinn Féin brings. He's also got the distinction of having Bertie Ahern call him a failed politician and a failed person. With the way things have turned out for Fianna Fáil, this could be a badge of honour

Very amusing post!

vincenzo1975

if she is such a poor mep, why did she get shortlisted for an award?

http://www.europarl.ie/Two_Irish_MEPs_nominated_for_2007_MEP_Awards-10_September_2007.html

Joey the lips

Come on folks, is this thread going to be another non factual rant or is it going to contain some political comment in any way!

This is the third thread I have seen about mary lou mcdonald that comments about her attendence. Who cares! As i said in the first

You can actually understand her low attendence she wants europes influence in ireland kept to a min because the more it influences the less chance we have to be a united country. You see her logic does make a little sense

Here is a question that makes more sense about europe, do you vote party or policys???? I bet its party becuase although I understand policys I have yet to see the effects of policys

Terrontress

I thought Mary Lou only got in the last time on the back of a dirty tricks smear campaign against Royston Brady at the 11th hour.

If her cronies can't pull off something similar this time then maybe she won't be returned.

Joey the lips

Terrontress wrote: »

I thought Mary Lou only got in the last time on the back of a dirty tricks smear campaign against Royston Brady at the 11th hour.

If her cronies can't pull off something similar this time then maybe she won't be returned.

I respectavly ask you learn your politics before relieing on your thoughts. Your incorrect and your allagations are only fit for the sun. This thread has developed enough crap without your poor contrabution

On another note its good to see oul royston lived up to the reasons HIS party failed to get him electected only recently in requesting the boot for brien.

He is egotestical and over confident and clearly has no respect for his party leader. This will get him far in politics

is_that_so

Mary Lou will be in for a tough battle and may suffer by association with the political expenses story across the water, which is causing quite a stir. SF claimed £500K for housing. That said she will probably be in for the last seat. The question is whether Ryan can hang on and how strong Joe Higgins will be. Wouldn't be surprised to see her scrape in but she could just as easily lose.

Terrontress

Joey the lips wrote: »

I respectavly ask you learn your politics before relieing on your thoughts. Your incorrect and your allagations are only fit for the sun. This thread has developed enough crap without your poor contrabution

On another note its good to see oul royston lived up to the reasons HIS party failed to get him electected only recently in requesting the boot for brien.

He is egotestical and over confident and clearly has no respect for his party leader. This will get him far in politics

Come on, you know that's true. All the crap whipped up about his father's taxi.

It's referenced here:

http://www.hotpress.com/archive/2931538.html

If it hadn't been for that he would have been a shoe in for the seat. I'd say even Mary Lou was surprised to be returned for the seat.

gandalf

Terrontress you need to be a subscriber to read that link.

blinding

Surely after all the wrong doing nobody is going to vote for Fianna Fail.

I cannot see FF holding a seat so Mary Lou McDonald must be in with a chance.

Terrontress

gandalf wrote: »

Terrontress you need to be a subscriber to read that link.

Apologies, I am a Hot Press subscriber.

Am I allowed to copy from there and paste on to here if it is a subscription service? Theft of intellectual property?

The facts, which can be seen all over the internet are:

Brady was a shoe in for the Dublin MEP seat.
Brady gives an interview in the run up to the election where he says his father's car was used in the Dublin bombing.
Politicians and newspapers alike round on Brady for not having made this information known to the inquiry.
The election comes and Brady does massively worse than expected.
Net loser: Fianna Fail and Royston Brady.
Net winner: SF and Mary Lou.
Information subsequently comes to light that Royston's father had made several interviews with the investigating authorities. This information has remained on public record. Royston had no further information to offer.

dave-higgz

If Eoin Ryan or Mary Lou McDonald don't get the third seat then who will?
Patricia McKenna?
Deirdre De Burca?
Joe Higgins?
Eibhlinn Byrne?

Our man in Havana

Deirdre De Burca

Does she even live in the constituency?

fingal hoop

is_that_so wrote: »

Mary Lou will be in for a tough battle and may suffer by association with the political expenses story across the water, which is causing quite a stir. SF claimed £500K for housing. That said she will probably be in for the last seat. The question is whether Ryan can hang on and how strong Joe Higgins will be. Wouldn't be surprised to see her scrape in but she could just as easily lose.

people in Dublin wont vote for Mary Lou because SF were claiming what they were due from the English taxpayers:rolleyes:

A Dub in Glasgo

fingal hoop wrote: »

people in Dublin wont vote for Mary Lou because SF were claiming what they were due from the English taxpayers:rolleyes:

Do the Scots, Welsh & Northern Irish not pay tax?

fingal hoop

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Do the Scots, Welsh & Northern Irish not pay tax?

slightly pedantic there


woeful stuff yesterday

A Dub in Glasgo

Certainly was!

On the topic in hand, I do not think SF will lose their seat because they are claiming allowances (in lieu of salary) nor do I think that SF will lose their seat because MLM did not attend 25% (ish) of the time in Brussels [when was the last time you truly heard from your MEP]. They may lose their seat because some folk have an inability to vote anything other than FF.

Our man in Havana

They may lose their seat because some folk have an inability to vote anything other than FF.

I don't think that will be a factor as FF will get the biggest kicking since the foundation of the state in the elections.

Joey the lips

gandalf wrote: »

Terrontress you need to be a subscriber to read that link.

No you dont you just got to follow his links to realise that he is playing a game with you. He figures I will turn enough people against Mary Lou so they will vote fianna Fail. Its a brilliantly clever tactic and one that I would give him a christmas bonus for

Well done. I applaud you

Terrontress

Joey the lips wrote: »

No you dont you just got to follow his links to realise that he is playing a game with you. He figures I will turn enough people against Mary Lou so they will vote fianna Fail. Its a brilliantly clever tactic and one that I would give him a christmas bonus for

Well done. I applaud you

What part of what I have said do you disagree with?

I have not said it was the Shinners who did the smearing but there was definitely a hatchet job done on him in the run up to the election and that was why Mary Lou was elected.

Do a simple search on google. You'll see that he was widely expected to walk the election. He wasn't returned, Mary Lou got the fourth seat.

If a dirty tricks campaign does not materialise against one of the candidates this year does Mary Lou stand a chance?

I have never voted Fianna Fail in my life and do not intend to do so in the upcoming elections.

Erin Go Brath

tobias_wolf wrote: »

looking over the last european election numbers Mcdonald won the forth seat in dublin, with dublin now only three will it be likely she will loose her seat?, or has her popularity grown(hopefully not)?, if she looses here seat will it be the end of Mary lou Mcdonald (hopefully), or has Fianna Fail completely blown it and thus giving her a chance to remain Sinn Feins immoral puppet.

Mary Lou's popularity and profile has grown considerably since the last election, also buoyed by the victory of the NO side in the Lisbon treaty.

My prediction is FG and Labour to take the first two seats, Eoin Ryan to get the third highest votes and Mary-Lou fourth. I think Mary Lou will finish higher than Eoin Ryan thanks to a favourable surplus from Joe Higgins and other left leaning and No to Lisbon candidates and sneak the final seat.

Souljacker

I think it'll be a close call but ultimately I think they'll lose it. It seems all but assured FG and Labour will win the first 2 seats.

The final seat seems to be lining up for a battle between Ryan, McDonald and Higgins.

FF's vote has plummeted but even if it held at 20, even 15% it's unlikely SF would be able to match FF on first preferences. After that it will be down to transfers and while FF are unlikely to attract too many SF historically don't receive transfers given people's tendencies to either love or loth the party.

If Higgins is the penultimate candidate to go his transfers will make it interesting but I still think ultimately it will be FG, Lab, FF.

Personally I'd love Higgins to win the 3rd seat. I don't think people should discount his personal popularity. If he's able to hang in there I believe he's the potential to attract more transfers than either Ryan or McDonald. Here's hoping anyway.

ilkhanid

"Surely after all the wrong doing nobody is going to vote for Fianna Fail?"

Remember, Haughey, Liam Lawlor, Ray Burke and Beverley Flynn? They had no trouble getting votes. If FF appointed "Seanie" Fitzpatrick head of the Central Bank,moved the Dail to Sherkin Island and announced a tax on eyebrows, there would still be a hard core that would vote for them.

Our man in Havana

ilkhanid wrote: »

"Surely after all the wrong doing nobody is going to vote for Fianna Fail?"

Remember, Haughey, Liam Lawlor, Ray Burke and Beverley Flynn? They had no trouble getting votes. If FF appointed "Seanie" Fitzpatrick head of the Central Bank,moved the Dail to Sherkin Island and announced a tax on eyebrows, there would still be a hard core that would vote for them.

If you put a FF badge on a scarecrow, people would vote for the scarecrow.