Yesterday, today and tomorrow

EyesLeft

Can we have a thread where we can vent, rant or exult about yesterday, share our fears and hopes for today and our idle speculation about tomorrow? I know posts like these are kind of uninformative, but having a special thread for them will save the other threads for more substantiative discussion and it would be nice to have somewhere for chatter.

So my theory for today is that it will be yesterday but upside down, drifting around until the US opens strong, and then taking off like a rocket, banks especially. I am worried about what the Cisco results will do; it had poor results but good guidance, I don't know what that will do for techs.

daveirl

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EyesLeft

Sorry; that was implicit, the Cisco was mentioned as something beyond what is obvious, which is the stress tests. Payrolls these days seem reliably better than expected. I am guessing that the stress tests will make for a strong open among American financials, I could be wrong. The other big factor is the bond sale yesterday which may have been what killed the American market and took the sugar off the ISEQ.

I have lots of US techs, so that is what I mostly worry about, not just how they do but how they do relative to the market and my suggestion for this thread was that it would be a place to worry.

Idu

Well the ADP results on wednesday were very bullish on wednesday so expectations for NFP will have shifted up. Could be dangerous for the market if we get a big number as it will cause more concerns over the real economy.

This is also the last "clean" NFP as the auto industry layoffs will start to be taken into account next month and will skew the figures for a month or two

daveirl

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ranger4

daveirl wrote: »

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If fig is whats expected do you see markets continuing to climb.

Idu

This was in an email I got today:

Since the ADP number on Wednesday this week (-491k vs. -645k exp), following on from the employment constituent of the Non-manufacturing ISM report on Tuesday (37.0 vs. 32.3 prev) the Bloomberg consensus of -600k for today’s NFP looks out of date.

The Street is looking for a number of nearer to -500k now with upward revisions to the Feb and March NFP also expected.

Some analysts are even touting a number of around -400k due to seasonal hiring. The hiring in question being the temporary hiring of workers by the US Government. The number of total hires is sketchy but anecdotal evidence puts government hiring up by around 100k in April which would in turn push this month's NFP higher by a similar amount.

However, there is a chance that this Government hiring didn't even hit this month’s numbers or hit only in part.

Its worth noting that, given the optimism that many are going into today with, any number around -600k (or worse) will have much more of an impact on the markets than a -450k (or better) print - especially given the positive market reaction overnight to the US bank stress results and the likely-to-be dismal US Unemployment Rate.

US unemployment rate could well be the more important number today if NFP isn’t stellar. A big increase in claims for unemployment insurance in April allied to a big jump in continuing claims from March to April (728k vs. 502k) has led many analysts to see a rise in the rate to 9.0% or higher. Based on the 4wk jobless average it wouldn't be a surprise for us to see a rate as high as 9.3%!

If Unemployment Rate comes in over 9.0% expect any good feeling in the markets over NFP to be short lived.

daveirl

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ixus

April Jobs Lossess 539,000

Across the Curve

Labor Pains
May 8th, 2009 8:52 am

This report does not look real swell to me. The net revisions subtract 66K and the one area of strength was government workers where my friends at UBS had a nice call on the census worker hiring (66K also).

Back out the 132K and you get -671.

There is weakness in every category of this report except government and education and health.

Wonder will there be revisions next month :rolleyes:

March revised to -699k from -663k (probably over 700k really but no way were they realeasing a numer like that. Maybe in the next revision)

Idu

unemployment below 9% is the big one for me

EyesLeft

I guess yesterday started much slower than expected because of the NFP figures but cheered up at the end. Tech was a disaster though, as feared, NVIDIA especially.

EyesLeft

So today is going ok as long as you squint in such a way that you can only see IN&M. I hate these days that start with a slow decline, they so often suddenly go over a cliff.

ranger4

EyesLeft wrote: »

So today is going ok as long as you squint in such a way that you can only see IN&M. I hate these days that start with a slow decline, they so often suddenly go over a cliff.

Yep. expect profit taking.

daveirl

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EyesLeft

Look at BoI go! Amazing. What is wrong with Datalex though?

The US rally yesterday was such a surprise, to me anyway, I was ready for this week to open with another slide.

ranger4

EyesLeft wrote: »

Look at BoI go! Amazing. What is wrong with Datalex though?

The US rally yesterday was such a surprise, to me anyway, I was ready for this week to open with another slide.

I feel the present rally is going to run out of steam shortly, Us housing very disapointing.

silverharp

might explain the rally, would the gov./banks really prop up the market when the banks want to raise more capital:pac: I tried imbedding the video but didnt seem to work


http://www.myprops.org/content/EVIDENCE-OF-GOVERNMENT-MANIPULATION-IN-THE-STOCK-MARKET-Dan-Shaffer-explains-on-Fox-Business-News-video-and-transcript/

“Something strange happened during the last 7 or 8 weeks. Doreen you probably can concur on this -- there was a power underneath the market that kept holding it up and trading the futures. I watch the futures every day and every tick, and a tremendous amount of volume came in a several points during the last few weeks, when the market was just about ready to break and shot right up again. Usually toward the end of the day – it happened a week ago Friday, at 7 minutes to 4 o’clock, almost 100,000 S&P futures contracts were traded, and then in the last 5 minutes, up to 4 o’clock, another 100,000 contracts were traded, and lifted the Dow from being down 18 to up over 44 or 50 points in 7 minutes. That is 10 to 20 billion dollars to be able to move the market in such a way. Who has that kind of money to move this market?

On top of that, the market has rallied up during the stress test uncertainty and moved the bank stocks up, and the bank stocks issues secondary – they issues stock – they raised capital into this rally. It was perfect text book setup of controlling the markets – now that the stock has been issued…”