Green shoots in the Irish economy

leonardjos

Very interesting article in today's Irish Times - Bad news brigade in media doing Ireland down

The writer quotes a lot of positive statistics and points to strong fundamentals in the Irish economy. It states that we are even out-performing most other countries in certain key measures.

However, you could take this with a pinch of salt when you see that the writer is the CEO of Brightwater Recruitment. But statistics don't lie, do they?!

Obviously the general Irish economy is a key factor is a stabilisation of our housing market. So if these 'green shoots' as they are being called are real, then we could expect to see a levelling off of house prices and a return to 'normal' levels of buying and selling?

Also a recruitment agent who claims to have never before sent a mass email, I had to have a little chuckle at that!

whizzbang

They most certainly do!
http://www.amazon.com/How-Lie-Statistics-Darrell-Huff/dp/0393310728

johnnyskeleton

One wrote as follows: “. . . it’s giving a desperate impression to investors, commentators, etc. Also, too much time spent pummelling those who are easy to blame – bankers, developers, etc. By all means accept there have been mistakes, learn the lessons, add regulations, etc, but now time to move on and have plan for the future.”

No, what's giving a desparate impression to investors, commentators is that the media are slowly exposing the corruption that prevaled at the top levels of our society - our government, senior bankers & developers to name but a few - and yet nothing is being done about it. Where are the men in handcuffs that are seen in the US etc? If we want the media to be more positive, they should be able to hold the guilty to account and expose the obscure. Until that happens, they rightly aren't letting go. This "move on, nothing to see here folks" type approach is not going to help the economy, it is only going to prevent the corrupt and incompentent from being exposed, thus not solving anything, merely brushing the problems under the carpet.

Untill they see some vague semblence of responsibility in Ireland, investors will stay well away. In any event, international investors probably don't read the Irish papers.

Senna

leonardjos wrote: »

But statistics don't lie, do they?!

Statistics are like whores, play with them long enough and they'll do anything for you

RATM

One Word: Unemployment.

~Trixiebelle~

Senna wrote: »

Statistics are like whores, play with them long enough and they'll do anything for you

LOL!!:D

mrgaa1

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8039672.stm
Oil heading up - banks starting to make profits. US job figures today will show where things are. Once the US starts to show improvement we're on the way. So lets hear from the doom - gloom merchants.

gurramok

mrgaa1 wrote: »

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8039672.stm
Oil heading up - banks starting to make profits. US job figures today will show where things are. Once the US starts to show improvement we're on the way. So lets hear from the doom - gloom merchants.

It doesnt quite work out like that.

Expect rates to start heading up later in the year to combat oil based inflation and that will hammer households even further and along with it house prices.

None of these green shoots abroad will address the big elephant in the room, the domestic lopsided economy and thats the crux.

johnnyskeleton

mrgaa1 wrote: »

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8039672.stm
Oil heading up - banks starting to make profits. US job figures today will show where things are. Once the US starts to show improvement we're on the way. So lets hear from the doom - gloom merchants.

I don't like the idea that the world is split between "doom - gloom merchants" on the one hand and eternal optimists on the other.

I believe we as human beings can discuss things rationally. I believe the internet is the best medium for the exchange of ideas the world has ever seen.

So what does the news from the US mean for Ireland. Not a lot really. Apart from the big factors that gurramok has pointed out, I fail to see how this rise in the US will affect Ireland as a direct consequence. Between 1921 and 1990, the US experienced massive growth, to grow from a strong open economy to being the powerhouse of the world economy to which there wasn't any real opposition bar the Soviet Union. During that same period Ireland stagnated and in some years e.g. late 1930s, declined worse than other countries. So there is absolutely no definite connection between US prosperity and the Irish economy.

That changed in the 1990s as we could offer US companies the triple benefits of 1) low tax 2) access to the EU and 3) cheap english speaking highly educated workforce. So we experienced a windfall of investment from US companies. Now however, the situation is that 1) the Obama administration is seeking to curtail and/or cut the benefits of our low tax system 2) there are more than twice the number of EU member states to choose from and, crucially, 3) we are now one of the most expensive countries in Europe to do business in, our education system has fallen way behind, and a vast number of Eastern Europeans have learned to speak English fluently.

So tell me this, when the US prospers again (which it no doubt will), why will the Irish economy benefit from that? I just can't see it as things stand.

Tipsy Mac

mrgaa1 wrote: »

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8039672.stm
Oil heading up - banks starting to make profits. US job figures today will show where things are. Once the US starts to show improvement we're on the way. So lets hear from the doom - gloom merchants.

Oil heading up is hardly good for our economy, we don't produce any oil in the country, the biggest field of possible gas we have off our shore was given away free by politicians who later were exposed as being corrupt, we are living in a country resembling a soap opera. The only good I see coming out of this mess is the level of out and out contemp and government and regulators had for people of this country is now being brought to light. Hopefully the gombeen idiots who vote for a party simply because their folks did will now see the light.

BigEejit

Over here in the UK every second week there is another muppet on saying there are green shoots. And then Halifax comes out and says that house prices dropped 1.7% in April, down 17.7% from last year (22% from the peak).

Unemployment is shooting up and the number of mortgate products is tiny compared to two years ago. One of my friends is seriously considering buying an investment property and the best mortgage he could get required a 20% deposit.

I know its on wikipedia, but there are some interesting quotes from people and groups in there: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis

The IMF estimates that financial institutions around the globe will eventually have to write off $1.5 trillion of their holdings of subprime MBSs. About $750 billion in such losses had been recognized as of November 2008. These losses have wiped out much of the capital of the world banking system.

I read in one of the Sunday papers over here that the 1.5Trillion dollars bandied about is on the low side and it may be as high as 4 Trillion dollars.

Green shoots my arse.