The Late Late Show Property Segment

Freddie59

Have a look at this (1hr26m in).

http://www.rte.ie/player/#v=1047020

wocoom

Have to say that guy Derek was slightly annoying, Im a major non lover of estate agents following a recent purchase of a new house but I think he was a bit ott!!

Freddie59

wocoom wrote: »

Have to say that guy Derek was slightly annoying, Im a major non lover of estate agents following a recent purchase of a new house but I think he was a bit ott!!

Possibly.

But he had all his facts right. As for the EA.......:rolleyes:

glaston

wocoom wrote: »

Have to say that guy Derek was slightly annoying, Im a major non lover of estate agents following a recent purchase of a new house but I think he was a bit ott!!

Agreed,
What an absolute noob. He probably made a lot of sense but I found myself wanting to disagree with him. I'd probably shoot myself if I had to spend time in his company.
Can you imagine being related to him?
What did you do that for? ....I told you so.... i warned you... look at what you have done now..... ad nauseam

Firetrap

He was a bit abrasive I thought but he was speaking a lot of truth. It's a far cry from what he was saying in 2007.

greendom

Pat Kenny was so patronising at the end of that piece. Something along the lines of that should give you people at home something to think about.

Good job he's retiring. I cant' understand how he comes across so much better on the radio

snubbleste

Derek is just as aggresive in that clip as all the vested interests that were encouraging FTBs into 30 year mortgages a few years ago who shouted down the pesky doommongers

Firetrap

Well, I thought he got his points across well. It might make some people stop and think. The audience were with him - the estate agent who was on the show as well seemed quite insipid

Freddie59

Firetrap wrote: »

Well, I thought he got his points across well. It might make some people stop and think. The audience were with him - the estate agent who was on the show as well seemed quite insipid

+1 to that. He had to try and defend the indefensible. Indeed, figures on www.thepropertypin.com today contradicted all he said. In March 09 the equivalent of 50 €250k mortgages were allocated. That bottom is a long, long way off yet.

kiwikid

he just struck me as poacher come game keeper - I could just imagine him flogging matchbox apartments a few years before his change of heart:cool:

Freddie59

kiwikid wrote: »

he just struck me as poacher come game keeper - I could just imagine him flogging matchbox apartments a few years before his change of heart:cool:

The one good thing is he was probably as passionate both times. Hard to argue with his figures last night.;)

Mugatu

I thought both were of little interest. The EA was too nervous to make any sort of valid contribution and the other guy was just spourting emotive things about the public being cheated by the EA's to sell his book.

All heat and no light comes to mind.

If Derek actually had some facts and figures to back-up his claims it might have been interesting.

lucky-colm

Mugatu wrote: »

I thought both were of little interest. The EA was too nervous to make any sort of valid contribution and the other guy was just spourting emotive things about the public being cheated by the EA's to sell his book.

All heat and no light comes to mind.

If Derek actually had some facts and figures to back-up his claims it might have been interesting.

i have to agree here it was all designed to make people feel bad about there purchase the fact is if its your family home there is technically no negative equity as you are not selling it and it was obviously worth the money that u paid for it to you at least at the time anyhow its the investors that are trying to offload there houses that find themselves in negative equity now and i say boo hoo to them this they drove the price of property sky high in the first place

anyhow derek got a good plug for his book out of it

Juwwi

I think dereks glass is always half empty
and estate agents is always half full ...

Neither in my opinion was any any help to a 30 year old out there who's renting and who's thinking if they dont get a mortgage soon they will paying a morgage into retirement age.

Firetrap

I'm in the same boat but my thinking is that when prices drop more, I'll be able to get a 20 year mortgage instead of a 25 or a 30 year one. Swings and roundabouts.

mikemac

Derek got his points across and won over the audience.

But very annoying and abrasive, even if I agreed with what he was saying I still didn't like the guy by the end.
Not that it matters much at all but I wouldn't like to attend meetings with him

Freddie59

mikemac wrote: »

very annoying and abrasive

Who cares? He got the message across, and even if it saves a few hundred people from going into NE, then it's worth it.

I was delighted to see it wasn't the usual media love-in with EAs and developers regarding the bottom. Derek got the point across well, and I was delighted to see SOMEONE do it - for once.

Plastic Bari

Derek was very annoying made some good points but turned it off towards the end cause he was getting to much!

Firetrap

Does it matter whether people liked him or not? Would they rather a schmoozy estate agent telling them prices would rise again had their say on the show. His manner may not have been to anyone's taste but he got his message across. Whether people decide to accept or reject it is another thing. I would hope that if they think he's talking baloney, that they don't do it solely on the grounds that he was abrasive.

amdublin

I do not think Derek got his point across well at all.

He had such an obnoxious "I know everything" abrasive personality that although he was making valid points psychologically he made me disagree with him.

It was no debate. It was just Derek barking over everyone else.

amdublin

Firetrap wrote: »

Would they rather a schmoozy estate agent telling them prices would rise again had their say on the show.

The EA was not there to say that/did not say that.

Firetrap

I never said he was. I was just comparing hypothetical styles. Anyway, there's nothing to stop anyone going out and buying in the morning if they so wish.

md23040

amdublin wrote: »

I do not think Derek got his point across well at all.

Really, he seemed fairly convincing to me. Developers were allowed to make extraordinary profits whilst EA’s covered up the reality of not enough supply etc, that still perpetuates even in this interview.

amdublin wrote: »

It was no debate. It was just Derek barking over everyone else.

The debate was as easy and as insightful as trying to prove black is black. Property was exorbitantly over-priced, and still is over-priced, and will fall in value.

However imo what Derek failed to get across was the long term affordability factor (10 year), which EA's are taking advantage of presently. Property is falsely priced since interest rates are historically low, and way below norms because of dire economic conditions. But with the cause and effect principle, the fiscal stimulation will eventually cause interest rates to move inversely with the consequences 7%+ rates to avoid inflation.

Those buying would need to ensure good stress testing at these levels.

Mugatu

md23040 wrote: »

But with the cause and effect principle, the fiscal stimulation will eventually cause interest rates to move inversely with the consequences 7%+ rates to avoid inflation.

Any chance you can backup where you got that % increase from?

If it is even possible then why not buy now and lock yourself into a 10 year fixed rate. Hate to be waiting around for cheaper houses at those interest levels.

jetski

Sorry to cut in but the point David failed to make was that when its agreed the prices have officially leveled, the bargaining power will have been striped from the buyers grasp never to return again.

johnnyskeleton

jetski wrote: »

Sorry to cut in but the point David failed to make was that when its agreed the prices have officially leveled, the bargaining power will have been striped from the buyers grasp never to return again.

You're lucky you bought so, otherwise you could lose your bargaining powers at any moment.

jetski

Am i wrong?

johnnyskeleton

jetski wrote: »

Am i wrong?

Yes. Buyers don't have any great bargaining power at the moment, because estate agents simply refuse to engage with them. Official stats don't necessarily mean that prices have actually stopped falling. If prices stop falling there will still be a massive overhang of supply and still very little by way of demand. Each individual property is different so the bargaining strength of each side depends on their individual circumstances.

Most of all, who cares whether they have bargaining power or not - the important thing is the price you pay. I'd rather buy a house at the full €200k asking price than to bargin down 15% from €300k to €255k.

Also, if they do lose this bargaining power, it is not forever, it is only until the next crash!

jetski

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Yes. Buyers don't have any great bargaining power at the moment + if they do lose this bargaining power,!

yea, contradicted yourself in what was a feeble comeback.

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

it is not forever, it is only until the next crash

now your just being really silly.

md23040

Mugatu wrote: »

Any chance you can backup where you got that % increase from?

Many Central Banks have gone heavily weighted into bonds over the last 12 months and generally analysts view this strategy as an expectation of inflation churning into the system - China already has emerged to recovery (it seems) although signs are still too early to be definitive.

However Ireland is a long way behind recovery compared to many other countries and worryingly when interest rates start going the other way and if we still have high unemployment could that mean even harder times for the economy and mortgage holders.

It is hard to be 100% certain on any strategy and where things are going but cause and effect is a basic principle. The cause is QE (Quantitative Easing or money printing) and the effect is inflation, which will be cured through higher interest rates. Given the level of QE, when demand for debt catches then high levels of inflation is inevitable (in my opinion). Many financial journalists have the same opinion, but are only divided on the level of inflation and whether hyperinflation could occur should Saudi’s/Chinese dump the dollar.

If you have a mortgage my advice would be fixing for 10 years. Those buying over priced property at the moment may have to forced sellers down the road if IR’s rise. This is just a second wave that will affect our over-priced property market and debt based consumer market. This country mistook debt for wealth, and the deleveraging is catching many with their pants down.

MG

Haven't watched the clip yet but I've just read Brawn's book. He doesn't have a great writing style, he likes talking about himself and he has a few annoying hobby horses but he has most of the relevent facts together in one book (the first person I am aware of to do so).

Apart from his writing style, the main problem is that even though it's brand new, it already feels out of date.

In the end though, his arguments are sounds and the figures are for the most part there to prove it.

mrgaa1

Unfortunately Pat Kenny's interview style totally ruined what should have been a balanced, interrogative style of interview - his lack of knowledge and intuition lead to one person saying "I told you so" but with no meat to his argument and another guy not being asked more pertitant questions. Can't take anything from this interview. If anyone saw the LLS 125yrs of GAA show will know how bad the show is at doing in depth programmes.

Mugatu

mrgaa1 wrote: »

Unfortunately Pat Kenny's interview style totally ruined what should have been a balanced, interrogative style of interview - his lack of knowledge and intuition lead to one person saying "I told you so" but with no meat to his argument and another guy not being asked more pertitant questions. Can't take anything from this interview. If anyone saw the LLS 125yrs of GAA show will know how bad the show is at doing in depth programmes.

Isn't he leaving the late late to do some form of political and current affairs programme. Oh dear!!

Freddie59

jetski wrote: »

yea, contradicted yourself in what was a feeble comeback.

:rolleyes: Now why doesn't that remark surprise me?

johnnyskeleton

jetski wrote: »

yea, contradicted yourself in what was a feeble comeback.

now your just being really silly.

If you perceive it as a loss of bargaining power, which I don't, then saying that it will never come back assumes that once house prices level off this time, they will never drop again. Are you really suggesting that this is the crash to end all crashes and that there will never be another housing bubble? Of course you are, sure you inherited the wisdom of the ages when you bought your house.

You should learn the meaning of the word "if", as in "When I go into negative equity, I don't know if I will be able to sell my house".

jetski

im entitled to give out from time to time.... the chap had no responce to my point so decided hed be clever and mention i bought a house recently, which he does alot for some reason.

johnnyskeleton

jetski wrote: »

im entitled to give out from time to time.... the chap had no responce to my point so decided hed be clever and mention i bought a house recently, which he does alot for some reason.

Is it not a valid point to say that many vendors, through their estate agents, are simply refusing to negotiate for less than what they think their house is worth, hence there is no real bargaining power?

Is it not valid to say that there can be a difference between official statisics and the reality on the ground (note also I didn't even call you up on the fact that we don't really have official statistics, as the ERSI/PTSB HPI is not official statistics)

Is it not a valid point to say that even if house prices stop falling and people start to buy again, there is still a massive supply of properties available?

Is it not a valid point to say that different circumstances will mean different bargaining strengths?

Is it not valid to say that it is better to get a cheaper house than it is to "get a bargain"?

Also, I might have mentioned your new house once or twice before but I don't think I refer to it a lot.

Freddie59

jetski wrote: »

im entitled to give out from time to time.... the chap had no responce to my point so decided hed be clever and mention i bought a house recently, which he does alot for some reason.

Jestki - the reality is this: house prices are tumbling. There is no stopping it. Economics at work. Supply/demand, etc. There WILL be other crashes. Once one occurs (as in Ireland) it will become cyclical. There is no avoiding it. The game is up. Full stop.

MG

The format wasn't great maybe. Some great stats were touched on by Brawn but the format wasn't great to explore them. Difficult to work through all the stats - a prime time report with graphs and stats would be better.

Fair play to Brawn though he's got all the key stats.