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May forecast contest -- enter by 1st of May (2359h)

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  • 29-04-2009 4:54pm
    #1
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,362 ✭✭✭✭


    May 2009 Forecast Contest -- enter by Friday evening

    (penalties apply if you enter on the 2nd or later)


    Okay then, for May, I have two interesting bonus questions for you as well as the usual three items:

    (1) Mean temperature for the month (average of highest and lowest monthly average values on met.ie)

    (2) Highest temperature of the month

    (3) Lowest temperature of the month

    (4) High for the day on Saturday 16th at Dublin A.

    (5) Rainfall for the day on Saturday 16th at Dublin A. (mms)

    Good luck, and watch for some April scores some time this coming weekend.


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    #2
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    May 2009 Forecast Contest -- enter by Friday evening

    (penalties apply if you enter on the 2nd or later)


    Okay then, for May, I have two interesting bonus questions for you as well as the usual three items:

    (1) Mean temperature for the month (average of highest and lowest monthly average values on met.ie)

    (2) Highest temperature of the month

    (3) Lowest temperature of the month

    (4) High for the day on Saturday 16th at Dublin A.

    (5) Rainfall for the day on Saturday 16th at Dublin A. (mms)

    Good luck, and watch for some April scores some time this coming weekend.


    mean temp 10 c

    high temp 22 c

    low temp 3 c

    high sat 16th dub a 16 c

    no rain on sat 16th dub a


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    #3
    nilhg
    Registered Users Posts: 5,122 ✭✭✭nilhg


    (1) Mean temperature for the month (average of highest and lowest monthly average values on met.ie) 10.6C

    (2) Highest temperature of the month 23.8C

    (3) Lowest temperature of the month -0.5C

    (4) High for the day on Saturday 16th at Dublin A. 17.8C

    (5) Rainfall for the day on Saturday 16th at Dublin A. (mms) 0.5MM

    Good luck, and watch for some April scores some time this coming weekend.


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    #4
    Strasser
    Registered Users Posts: 240 ✭✭Strasser


    1) Mean temperature for the month (average of highest and lowest monthly average values on met.ie) 14.5C

    (2) Highest temperature of the month 22.5C

    (3) Lowest temperature of the month -0.2C

    (4) High for the day on Saturday 16th at Dublin A. 16.5C

    (5) Rainfall for the day on Saturday 16th at Dublin A. zero


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    #5
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,656 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    1) Mean temperature for the month (average of highest and lowest monthly average values on met.ie) 11.6C

    (2) Highest temperature of the month 21.9C

    (3) Lowest temperature of the month 1.9C

    (4) High for the day on Saturday 16th at Dublin A. 17.1

    (5) Rainfall for the day on Saturday 16th at Dublin A. 1.3mm


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    #6
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,362 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    (1) 12.8 C

    (2) 24.4 C

    (3) -0.3 C

    (4) 16th Dublin ... 18.8 C

    (5) rainfall ... 5.0 mms


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    #7
    hellboy99
    Registered Users Posts: 6,219 ✭✭✭hellboy99


    1. Mean temp: 11.3c

    2. Highest temp: 21.8c

    3. Lowest temp: -0.4c

    4. High Sat 16th @ Dublin A: 18.6c

    5. Rainfall on Sat 16th Dublin A: 1mm


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    #8
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    (1) Mean temperature for the month (average of highest and lowest monthly average values on met.ie) 10.7c

    (2) Highest temperature of the month 23.6c

    (3) Lowest temperature of the month -0.4c

    (4) High for the day on Saturday 16th at Dublin A. 15.8c

    (5) Rainfall for the day on Saturday 16th at Dublin A. (mms) 0.2mm

    Many thanks for keeping the competition alive MTC. Keep up the good work!


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    #9
    dasa29
    Registered Users Posts: 551 ✭✭✭dasa29


    (1) Mean temperature for the month (average of highest and lowest monthly average values on met.ie) 12.5c

    (2) Highest temperature of the month 26.0c

    (3) Lowest temperature of the month 0c

    (4) High for the day on Saturday 16th at Dublin A. 14.5c

    (5) Rainfall for the day on Saturday 16th at Dublin A. (mms) 10.5mms


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    #10
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,760 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    (1) Mean temperature for the month (average of highest and lowest monthly average values on met.ie 11.6c

    (2) Highest temperature of the month 20.8c

    (3) Lowest temperature of the month 1.3c

    (4) High for the day on Saturday 16th at Dublin A. 16.8c

    (5) Rainfall for the day on Saturday 16th at Dublin A. 0.3mm


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    #11
    TheGreenGiant
    Registered Users Posts: 300 ✭✭TheGreenGiant


    (1) Mean temperature for the month 13.6 C

    (2) Highest temperature of the month 21 C

    (3) Lowest temperature of the month 6.7 C

    (4) High for the day on Saturday 16th at Dublin 16.5 C

    (5) Rainfall for the day on Saturday 16th at Dublin A. 2MM


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    #12
    Trogdor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭Trogdor


    (1) Mean temperature for the month (average of highest and lowest monthly average values on met.ie) 12.4C

    (2) Highest temperature of the month 22.2C

    (3) Lowest temperature of the month 3.5C

    (4) High for the day on Saturday 16th at Dublin A. 17.5C

    (5) Rainfall for the day on Saturday 16th at Dublin A. (mms) 0mm


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    #13
    jd
    Registered Users Posts: 5,683 ✭✭✭jd


    1) Mean temperature for the month (average of highest and lowest monthly average values on met.ie) 12.5C

    (2) Highest temperature of the month 23.8 C

    (3) Lowest temperature of the month 2.5 C

    (4) High for the day on Saturday 16th at Dublin A. 18.2 C

    (5) Rainfall for the day on Saturday 16th at Dublin A. (mms) 0


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    #14
    TheInquisitor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    (1) Mean temperature for the month (average of highest and lowest monthly average values on met.ie) 11C

    (2) Highest temperature of the month 27C

    (3) Lowest temperature of the month 3.5C

    (4) High for the day on Saturday 16th at Dublin A. 19C

    (5) Rainfall for the day on Saturday 16th at Dublin A. (mms) no rain


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    #15
    kindredspirit
    Registered Users Posts: 340 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Oh dear, a bit late for this one again.

    I wonder what dastardly penalty Empty Head will inflict! :eek: :eek: :eek:

    :):):):):)

    1; 12.0°C

    2; 21.0°C

    3; 2.0°C

    4; 15.0°C

    5; 0.5mm

    https://coolwatergarden.com/



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    #16
    200motels
    Registered Users Posts: 2,602 ✭✭✭200motels


    (1) Mean temperature for the month (average of highest and lowest monthly average values on met.ie) 11.2C

    (2) Highest temperature of the month 24.7C

    (3) Lowest temperature of the month -1.1

    (4) High for the day on Saturday 16th at Dublin A. 20C

    (5) Rainfall for the day on Saturday 16th at Dublin A. (mms) 0.1MM


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    #17
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,362 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I propose being lenient and will extend the cut-off to end of play today (Saturday) since people have probably been busy with the weekend starting on the first.


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    #18
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,362 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The maximum temperature at Dublin (A) on the 16th was 13.2 C, and the rainfall recorded was 5.1 mms.

    Those will be the basis of 20% of the monthly points for May, scores with the monthly round-up.


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    #19
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,362 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    For the three main parts of the May forecast, the results are:

    Monthly mean 10.8 C

    Highest of month 24.4 C (31st, Birr)

    Lowest of month 0.3 C (10th, Claremorris)

    The bonus questions as already stated in previous post, Dublin on 16th, maximum temp was 13.2 C and the rainfall 5.1 mms.

    Scoring for the three main components will proceed as normal, the range of guesses was pretty much straddled on the actual values so we have no shortage of qualifying points. The scoring for the max temp at Dublin will go by rank, because everyone tended to be quite a bit higher (I think this was about the coolest day of the month as it turned out). So closest gets 10 pts, and so on. As for the rainfall, I think this is fair: points drop off by one per half mm error on the down side, then one per mm on the up side, so if anyone went above 15 mm in their guess or said zero, they score zero for being as far off in relative terms of probability.

    I am sure nobody cares that much but we can meet at the United Nations which is about half-way for me, should there be a serious dispute breaking out. :D

    Okay then, here are your scores, for the merry merry month of May. Two who were a day late were also a buck short, so I didn't penalize them (new rule, late entry, 60+ lose 10% above 60, below 60, as it didn't help to be late, no penalty)

    (10.8,24.4,0.3,13.2,5.1)

    Danno ...... (29,17,18,03,01) ... 68
    Nilhg ...... (28,19,17,00,01) ... 65
    MTCranium .... (10,25,19,00,10) ... 64
    200Motels ... (26,22,11,00,01) ... 60
    Dasa29 ...... (13,09,22,10,05) ... 59
    Hellboy99 .... (25,00,18,00,02) ... 45
    Docarch ..... (22,00,15,03,01) ... 41
    Nacho libre ... (22,00,09,02,03) ... 36
    Kindred Spirit .. (18,00,08,09,01) ... 36
    JD ...... (13,19,03,00,00) ... 35
    Strasser .... (00,06,20,05,00) ... 31
    Redsunset .. (22,01,00,05,00) ... 28
    The Inquisitor .. (28,00,00,00,00) ... 28
    Trogdor ... (14,03,00,01,00) ... 18
    Green Giant ... (02,00,00,05,04) ... 11

    I will update the annual (cumulative) scoring a bit later as it is now breakfast time here by the (other) sea. Congrats to Danno, Nilhg and some other guy whose name escapes me for cleaning up the slim pickings this month, also 200motels and Dasa29 did quite nicely. Bit of a trainwreck in general though. The new five-month totals should be interesting, some changes ahead for sure.


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    #20
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,362 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The above should have been in the "annual forecast contest scores" thread, and it now is, along with the updated annual scores.

    GO THERE NOW OR FACE SEVERE DIFFICULTIES !!! :eek:


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