Can the world as we know it recover from the recession?

philip100

Looking beyond Ireland and the present recession can someone please tell me how we (the planet) can move forward. The facts are as follows, the population of the planet is still increasing because of medical advancements etc, most countries throughout the world have or are presently increasing the retirement age (meaning there are a continuously growing number of the population requiring employment), on the other side because of technology advancements a robot or computer can do the work of 20 men.
So basically the number of workers required globally is on the decrease and the population of the planet requiring employment is increasing, is it just me or does the figures not add up, something has to give. Let me know you thoughts.

Diarmuid

philip100 wrote: »

So basically the number of workers required globally is on the decrease

Why are you making this assumption?

Industries rise and fall over time. We generally don't see this happening until it has. Look at some of the biggest companies around now, many exist in industries that didn't even exists 30 years ago.

jimmycrackcorm

I wonder how many times the equivalent question was asked in 1930.

philip100

Well I am glad to see there are still optimistic people out there, unfortunitally I can not see it but I hope I am wrong. Coming from an industrial background (electronics) where we are now manufacturing the same volume of computers as 5 years ago with half the manpower thanks to advancements in technology and we are being pressurised into finding additional advancements to reduce the workforce further I cannot see such a promising outcome , it has even got to the stage were robots are making robots. As for what they said in the 1930's I think if you check your history books the second world war had a major part to play in the recovery after this period. It was actually after this time credit became freelly available and people could happily live beyond their means, creating the false economy we all know so well and the answer to get out of it now is to spend, spend, spend (yet another quick fix).

thebman

There is an entire industry of green products waiting to be developed, released and utilised to clean the environment so there will be new jobs in these areas.

Of course this work will be automated over time and then we'll have to find something else but business is dynamic like that.

hatrickpatrick

^ On the other hand, the easier it is to produce goods, the more companies can afford to cut prices. If they create a robot which replaces 20 workers, that's 20 paycheques saved. This will filter down to the eventual asking price for the product. So as productivity becomes easier, prices will fall, meaning that eventually everything will be automated but it will also be as cheap as peanuts so that won't matter.

Again, it's about balance. If the rate of technological advancement increases faster than demand for the products, you're right and we're all screwed. I can't see that happening though. Assuming cars halve in price over the next 10 years, demand will go UP as more and more people can afford them.

I'm not an economist but if you follow that logic what you'll eventually have is a society where everybody is working in the few remaining jobs which can only be done by humans, probably not earning very much, but at the same time you'll find that everyone can afford these products because they've become so unbelievably cheap, so the fact that everyone is working is low pay jobs won't actually matter.

zootroid

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

I wonder how many times the equivalent question was asked in 1930.

+1

I don't think you even need to go back that far. In the seventies and eighties people were worried about machines doing the jobs of x number of people.

When ever there is a recession people cannot see past the doom and gloom. Of course they are painful, especially when they are as severe as the current global one, but they always end and there won't be any exception here. New industries are always created.

O'Coonassa

zootroid wrote: »

New industries are always created.

Your proof of this dates back how far? Not very far at all I'm thinking. About as far back as the stupid idea of making debt money up out of thin air. New industries were created before then but of course at a much slower rate.

That imaginary debt money has to be and is being extracted from our planet Earth and its exponentially growing number of consumer-ape occupants who are consuming more and more with resources growing ever scarcer.

Capt'n Midnight

O'Coonassa wrote:

That imaginary debt money has to be and is being extracted from our planet Earth and its exponentially growing number of consumer-ape occupants who are consuming more and more with resources growing ever scarcer.

oddly enough the apes who consume most tend to have the negative population growth , so once everyone has all the goods they need / more women get eductated (depending on who you believe) our population will stabilise.

It would be nice to see renewables as the new big industry, it's really only in the last century that we've gone to a disposable culture and built in obsolesence, and even that will change as we reach technical limits. Look at netbooks, they are only 1/10th as powerful as the latest and greatest but they are fast enough for most things. Transportation vehicles, especially airliners haven't changed much apart from using newer materials and more electronics.

graw

spend, spend, spend (yet another quick fix)
Spending money, increasing the money supply and dropping interest rates all encourage circulation. This is helps the economy because circulation is the problem that must be dealt with at this time. It is not a quick fix, it is necessary.

because of technology advancements a robot or computer can do the work of 20 men.
This is true but one important point is to differentiate between skilled men and unskilled men, as well as men across different countries.

Having read the posts in this thread, one would believe that the world is going to be taken over by robots! A bit of a whim to say the least so lets return to economics.

On that note, of course the world can recover from this recession. (what do you think happened in the past?) It is not so much a question of how but when.