Bear market rally?

radioactiveman

Hi
Is the current rally just a short bear market rally or could shares actually hold the value they're at at the moment?

Just interested in people's opinions even though obviously it's impossible to call the market.
There seems to be a lot of talk about how we will probably go back near the lows of March before there is a real recovery. But I don't see why this should be a given?

ranger4

radioactiveman wrote: »

Hi
Is the current rally just a short bear market rally or could shares actually hold the value they're at at the moment?

Just interested in people's opinions even though obviously it's impossible to call the market.
There seems to be a lot of talk about how we will probably go back near the lows of March before there is a real recovery. But I don't see why this should be a given?

I feel we are due a pull back soon, I doint believe we will retest lows but could see a conciderable fall with sp with profit taking before next leg up.

pirelli

Bloomberg discussed this on tonights news. Its a yes and No answer. It has happened in the past and there is strong opinion that it ( nasdaq,S& P,dow...) will just keep rising.I.E it will just keep rallying up and up forming a v shape on the charts with march 09 being the lowest point.

On the other hand there is a strong opinion that like similar models and market situations before that signify it will pull back again and might also bottom out for a long time and or has a long way to go with alot of volatility.


In summary if you look at bidu it appears to be just soaring its way back to its usual steep heights. I think it will be similar to bidu but with much more turbulence and with possibly many pullback's

daveirl

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radioactiveman

So for the average joe trying to buy into the market would it be best to average in even though it could fall significantly in the next while?

silverharp

daveirl wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

I mentioned the point over on the economics forum but at the moment the S&P P/E ratio is over 50 and the dividend yield is around 3% , a standard bear market bottom would have these ratios in the 6 to 10 range. Anyone that buys and hold now has not studied bear markets

ixus

Insider Selling Jumps to Highest Level Since 2007 Bloomberg Article

ranger4

ixus wrote: »

Insider Selling Jumps to Highest Level Since 2007 Bloomberg Article

a possible signal of no faith left with rally?

pirelli

ranger4 wrote: »

a possible signal of no faith left with rally?

You should also factor in a volatile few months ahead. These companies are desperate for cash and need to pay off debts.All this in order to post good profits which will in turn drive up their share price allowing them to control their price share and or buy back in. The future is uncertain but business has expenses.

silverharp

It looks like the S&P is breaking out to the upside (above 875 confirms it) so this bear rally seems to have more legs, wouldnt be surprised to see 9-10 K in the Dow during May possibly. There was a non confirmation last week as the Nasdaq made a higher high and it tends to be a leading index. The chatter was that a lot of funds had gone short coming into earnings season so no doubt they will feed the rally if they cover. Plus you may have a lot of cash of the sidelines that will be forced to chase this.
There will be a fantastic shorting opportunity coming up over the next month or 2 , any longer term longs should have one foot out the door over the next few weeks. Its a soft art but look for sentiment to get extreme to the upside, along the line of recovery in 09 , the worst is behind us , the stimulus is working.... you get the idea