10 grand options

DUBLINHITMAN

i have no idea about stocks or share's should i stay clear'
or should i get more info ,
as above i've 10grand to put into something , but @ the end of the day i want to make money quick with the least amount of stress and problems

Thomas_S_Hunterson

Risk and return are pretty directly correlated.

There aint no easy money.

DUBLINHITMAN

THANKS SEAN
full of info here lads what a site

mickman

well your post is very vague

if you want the least ammount of stress then put the money on deposit with anglo irish for the best interest rate

rugbyman

Hitman,

if you look over these threads for the last year you will find many have asked the same question as you asked. dozens of others replied and you will find lots of good opinions and advice.

in a nutshell, investing in shares at the moment is not without risk. though shares have fallen from great heights to penny levels, one cannot say there is not worse to come.

Some posters have stated that there are American shares trading way below their asset value and that therefore they should rise. this seems straigh forward but this depression may get worse and there may not be buyers for these assets or companies.

the most commonly debated topic on here is Irish bank Shares.

had you invested your 10 k in B of Ire last thurs /friday at 85 cent, by wed you would have had shares worth 61 cent each, a 30 per cent fall.

had you bought on wed @ 61 cent, you could sell this morning at 72 cent, approx 15% rise in two days.

there is a roller coaster running at the moment and profits can be made.

there are some posters on here who favour buying and selling bank shares ,based on how the U.S. market went the previous evening. I am looking at that at the moment, in so far as I am able to, and it seems to work. both of the price changes that I referred to above were forecast by this method.


Had you invested your 10k in ryanair 6 weeks ago or so when they were 275, you could sell now for 330, almost 20% rise, which is a large gain.
Are they worth buying now, I dont know, they are well run, have cash reserves, cut losses as soon as they arise, will be there when others go bust, but will this mean a share price rise, WHO KNOWS.?

A poster on a similiar thread this morning suggested that AIB and Bank of Ireland might be 3 euro in a year or two. I would be inclined to agree, but there is no logical reason to think so.

regards ,Rugbyman

DUBLINHITMAN

thanks again rugby man
fai play,,

Idu

rugbyman wrote: »

A poster on a similiar thread this morning suggested that AIB and Bank of Ireland might be 3 euro in a year or two. I would be inclined to agree, but there is no logical reason to think so.

Classic

rugbyman

Hello IDU

I remember, in your last posting name you helping me out on a query about. FFyfes.

Might i ask your opinion on the following

A poster expressed his opinion that AIB ,Bof I might be 3 or 4 times its present share price in a few years. I happen to agree.


Any of the following fours scenarios might be the case in a few years,

1 S.P. might be higher

2 S.P. might be lower

3 S.P. might be the same

4 the bank might not exist ( liquidation, nationalisation with some eventual pay out ,nationalisation with no payout,)


Might I ask you to give an opinion on this, and ideally showing your reasons.

You may choose not to give an opinion, you may perhaps not have one. But an answer, a statement of belief, something definite.


I have re read this to see if I have expressed anything personal or negative. While of course there is a personal element, in that i am asking for your personal opinion, I certainly mean no offence.

Regards, Rugbyman

Idu

My opinion is the same as it has been for the last year - the banks do not offer the best potential return on an investment that is available at the moment due to the increased uncertainty that surrounds them.

Your own post sums it up, you think it will trade higher but you can offer no reason as to why? What is so good about the outlook for the banks? Whats the big secret that you can all see but most of the experienced traders on here have missed?

Until the intangibles that surround the banks are removed then I can't see how they are such an attractive proposal.

If someone can show me even 1 reason based on solid economic information why BOI/AIB are a good investment now then fair enough. But nobody can. The best on offer seems to be that they probably wont be nationalised and that they used to trade much higher.

pocketdooz

Here's one (of many that I have listed over the last year) reason not to invest in AIB (specifically AIB this time) . . . .

AIB made an operating profit of €2.71 billion in 2008 and then wrote down €1.82 billion for impairment of loans and receivables. This gave them an operating profit of €862 million.

Now, their total loan book is €135.6 billion. So, they took a write-down of 1.34% of their loan book. Come off it - if they get away with ten times that they will be lucky in my opinion. For example - If you look at the Spanish banks it's ticked up from 1-2% last year to 4-5% currently and is rising rapidly.

So, if we take a more realistic, yet conservative estimate of the write-down, let's say, only 5% we get to an impairment figure of €6.78 billion. Hence giving them an operating loss (not profit) of €4.07 billion.

All these figures are in the Annual report (I attached this before to the AIB discussion thread (about 2 pages back from the last page as of April 23rd) - flip to page 135-138. Also, bear in mind that profit is an accounting concept and what we are really worried about is cash generation, cash burn and capitalisation which are the really worrying things about the banks at the moment.


Edit to say - No dividend / Huge and unknown bad debt liabilities / No public trust / Decreasing deposit base / Inadequate capitalisation / Irish recession that will last for 5 years or more / increasing unemployment in its home country / Inadequate access to cheap capital / Liquidity issues / Employee brain-drain / Mortgage repossessions that will go thorugh the roof as soon as inflation kicks in and interest rates start to rise again and on and on and on.

NOw - Can anyone list ONE (!!!!) adequate reason TO invest in AIB. (PS - "duh, cos they were 20 quid last year" , "eh cos they will rebound with the economy next year, oh look there's a flying pig" , "I don't know but yer man who runs my local shop says they are a good buy " etc etc do NOT count as adequate reasons.