Bad science? - unprotected sex a "self-fulling prophesy"

mambo

From http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/health/2009/0414/1224244622735.html

According to Dr Gráinne Cousins, health psychologist and researcher in the division of population health sciences at the RCSI, those who believe they will behave irresponsibly when they have drink taken are more likely to be the ones who end up behaving in this way and having unprotected sex. Therefore, health promotion messages should probably be targeting these beliefs, which seem to become self-fulfilling prophesies, when trying to get the safe sex message across.

I take it from this that there is a strong statistical CORRELATION between "those who believe they will behave irresponsibly when they have drink taken" and those who "have unprotected sex".

The researcher seems to conclude (erroneously?) that "believing they will behave irresponsibly when they have drink taken" CAUSES people to have unprotected sex, and that if you take away the "belief" then you solve the problem :shock:

But surely it's the other way round? I.e. that having unprotected sex CAUSES you to believe you behave irresponsibly when you have drink taken.

Or maybe there is no causitive effect at all. After all, correlation does not imply causation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation

JuliusCaesar

As the media are liable to misquote and misreport I had a look at RCSI:

http://www.rcsi.ie/index.jsp?pID=93&nID=105&aID=2153


Dr Grainne Cousins, Health Psychologist and researcher in the Division of Population Health Sciences, RCSI said ‘As STI’s have increased in Ireland over the past few years, it is worrying to see that a high percentage (64%) of those engaging in unprotected sex in relationships are unaware of their partners STI status. Young adults aged 20 to 29 years of age account for 65% of all notified STI’s, and if left untreated, STI’s can result in irreversible complications including infertility in both males and females.” 70% of casual sexual events involved alcohol consumption. However, despite people involved in casual sex being more motivated to use a condom, often alcohol prevented condoms being used.


Dr Cousins continued, “It was found that those who believe that alcohol causes them to take sexual risks, were significantly more likely to report unprotected sex when consuming alcohol prior to a casual sexual event. This indicates that the effects of alcohol consumption are not solely due to the effects of alcohol consumption on the body, but rather is influenced by the beliefs one holds about the effects of alcohol on their behaviour.”

tallaght01

I don't know how they assign anything more than association here.

It's probably one of these areas where some qualitative research might be of use.

Any one got a link to an original paper?

JuliusCaesar

I think she just presented this at a conference - may not be ppublished yet. Seems to have been done under the auspices of the Health Research Board, who may have details..

Mrs OBumble

I've no references, but believe that there's a fair bit of psychological research that says (in summary): "If you believe that you are a gob-****e, then you are likely to behave like a gob-site."

This paper is just extending it to "If you believe that you are a gob-****e when you have drink taken, then you are likely to behave like a gob-site when you have drink taken."

mambo

JustMary wrote: »

I've no references, but believe that there's a fair bit of psychological research that says (in summary): "If you believe that you are a gob-****e, then you are likely to behave like a gob-site."

This paper is just extending it to "If you believe that you are a gob-****e when you have drink taken, then you are likely to behave like a gob-site when you have drink taken."

By "more likely to", you mean the first CAUSES then second, or simply that there's a correlation? There's a big difference!

It's much harder to prove causation, or some people just conveniently choose to ignore the difference and assume one implies the other, hence my question.

drkpower

mambo wrote: »

I take it from this that there is a strong statistical CORRELATION between "those who believe they will behave irresponsibly when they have drink taken" and those who "have unprotected sex".

The researcher seems to conclude (erroneously?) that "believing they will behave irresponsibly when they have drink taken" CAUSES people to have unprotected sex, and that if you take away the "belief" then you solve the problem :shock:

Of course the former CAUSES the latter. Or more precisely, it is one of the causes.

For a lot of people, the effect of alcohol is some kind of excuse which absolves them of personal responsibility for what they do when intoxicated. This can extend from the trivial ("I only act the eejit when I'm drink") to the irresponsible ("I only have one night stands when I'm drunk") to the dangerous ("I only get into fights when I'm drunk"). Its always been that way and far too many people accept this attitude of people who blame drink for their own behaviour.

mambo

drkpower wrote: »

Of course the former CAUSES the latter. Or more precisely, it is one of the causes.

But is there evidence for this? Is it just taken as read (which is hardly "science")?

drkpower

mambo wrote: »

But is there evidence for this? Is it just taken as read (which is hardly "science")?

Unfortunately you cant have independently verifiable evidence for everything, particularly when it comes to issues as to working of someones personality and thought processes.

All you can do is use anecdotal evidence and there is plenty of that around.....

mambo

drkpower wrote: »

Unfortunately you cant have independently verifiable evidence for everything, particularly when it comes to issues as to working of someones personality and thought processes.

All you can do is use anecdotal evidence and there is plenty of that around.....

I'm sure there's lots of anecdotal evidence for homeopathy, reflexology, etc. too.

drkpower

mambo wrote: »

I'm sure there's lots of anecdotal evidence for homeopathy, reflexology, etc. too.

But the effects of those ARE verifiable. And they havent been verified.

Whether a certain mindset can cause a certain effect is not independently verifiable in the same manner. Thats just the way it is. Get over it.

tallaght01

I'd guess there's an element of both at play. Some people get so irresponsible when they're boozed, and think that being drunk absolves them of any blame.

But people who do stupid things when they're drunk will be aware if this, and that may be what these researchers are hearing from their respondents. But it's always difficult to interpret, and especially to to extrapolate, a lot of the type of qualitative research that would be use to examine this issue.