World Championship Prediction

ELSEBELLE

OK its nearly time for the action to get under way at the great Crucible for 2009. So who do you fancy for the title. Suppose Ronnie is the man to beat if he plays well, who knows with Ronnie!!!!!!Could it be Selby after going out early last year, tricky first round this year too. Maybe Carter after a decent season, can Ding ever live up to his billing, think it will be a couple years before he wins it. Maguire to hit from?Higgins maybe? Could a past winner find some form, Hendry, Williams, Murphy, or Edbon after his China open win?Did I leave anyone out that could win it, dont think so.Sad to see our own Ken not making it this year.So what ye reckon?????

celticfc

This is how Paddy power see's it today:

R O'Sullivan	2 - 1
Mark Selby	8 - 1
Stephen Maguire	8 - 1
Ali Carter	9 - 1
John Higgins	10 - 1
Shaun Murphy	14 - 1
Ding Junhui	16 - 1
Neil Robertson	20 - 1
Ryan Day	20 - 1
Mark Williams	25 - 1
Peter Ebdon	25 - 1
Mark Allen	33 - 1 
Marco Fu	33 - 1 
Jamie Cope	50 - 1 
Stephen Hendry	50 - 1 
Joe Perry	50 - 1 
Ricky Walden	66 - 1 
Graeme Dott	80 - 1 
Liang Wenbo	80 - 1 
Stephen Lee	125 - 1 
Joe Swail	125 - 1 
Mark King	150 - 1 
Barry Hawkins	150 - 1 
A Higginson	200 - 1 
Michael Holt	250 - 1 
Steve Davis	250 - 1 
Martin Gould	300 - 1 
Stuart Bingham	300 - 1 
Gerard Greene	300 - 1 
Jamie Burnett	400 - 1 
Rory McLeod	400 - 1 
Nigel Bond	500 - 1

My Picks:

John Higgins (10-1) - Been there, done that etc. Winner in 1998 and 2007. Came into good form last week in China and in the Championship League last month. I'll be very surprised if he's not there or thereabouts come the May bank-hol weekend.

Stephen Hendry (50-1) - How can you not put a couple of quid on him at that price. (My outside bet )

Mark Selby (8-1) - It's hard to bet against him. Runner-up in 2007. Seems to like the crucible. It could be his year.

Ali Carter (9-1) - Runner-up last year but ran out of gas against O'Sullivan in the final. Has had a very good season overall.

Neil Robertson (20-1) - It all depends on which Neil comes out to play, he can be unpredictable, but definitely has the game to win.

Shaun Murphy (14-1) - He had a great win at the UK Ch'ship which is a similar format tourney. 2005 winner.

For some reason I dont see Ronnie winning it & Maguire hasn't been overly impressive at the crucible before.

Ebdon could be a dark horse, he won in china last week after having a terrible season. Joe perry could be worth a quid aswell.

RocketRonnie

I think Higgins and Carter look the best value, both have a good draw.... I won't be taking PP's s*#t prices tough, both can be got at least 12/1!!

ELSEBELLE

Tricky to pick alright.Suppose u made cases for em all there Celtic lol.I think if Ronnie goes its wide open, I have to agree with u on Hendry, some price for him, 66's in a couple of places. If he can snake through a round or 2 who knows. Also give Ebdon a chance even though he is in the same quarter as Ronnie.

rafa no 1

ronnie ronnie ronnie, if he can keep his head right and get through the first round he is a definate, he won't play again until the second week so he can sit back and watch what he is up against, only other player that will bother him is john higgins, both players excel in the longer matches and are the two best match players in the world, any one who knows their snooker will know this, ps, first time on here, just home from living in england, want to continue playing, any decent players out there want to get together for a few frames?

Glenman

Its hard to predict, could be anyone from 10-12 players. Ronnie seems to think it between him and Higgins if they play well.

ELSEBELLE

Maybe Rafa, what part of the country are u from, might be interested.

celticfc

Maybe Neil Robertson can be taken out of that list. The word around is that he gave himself a bit of a shoulder injury on the way back from China last week.

He plays Steve Davis in their first session @ 7pm on Tuesday.

connie147

I know a few of the pros from organising exhibitions, and they all seem to be singing from the same hymmsheet "John Higgens FTW". Obviously, we have to wait and see with Ronnie, but I hope they get to meet. What a match-up that would be.

Anyway, my tip,(and I gave it here on another thread a few weeks ago), is to back Steven Hendry to win his quarter (ie: to get to the semi finals).
He has to play Mark Williams in his 1st round(best of 19), if he gets through that he meets probably DingJungWi (best of 25) and if he gets through that, it looks like Sean Murphy in the quarter final.(best of 25). The bookies quote Mark Williams 4/1 to win the quarter while Hendry was an unbelievable 12/1.(best on offer now is 9/1).

Fact--Hendry has played at the crucible on 20 occassions and reached 13 semi-finals.
Fact--Hendry reached last years semi-final where he was 4-1 up on ronnie until a bad kick let Ronnie back in and ultimately changed the course of the match.
Fact-- Hendry has had a bad season to date, but in his own words, theres nothing wrong with his game, he just needs a few match wins under his belt. Well he got those couple of wins that he so desperately wanted at the last ranking event in China, and with his top 16 spot assured, expect to see a rerlaxed and focussed Mr Hendry at the Crucible.
Fact-- Steven Hendry has been 7 times world champion!!

Steve Davis said that Hendry should be an identical price to Williams to win that quarter, so the 9/1 still looks good.

Remember, this is just an opinion. But once he can get through that 1st match against his good friend Mark williams, the best of 25 matches will suit him down to the ground.

Heres hoping anyway!!!


Connie

seanhynes

ebdon seems a gud bet ew @40/1 ,higgins and selby both worth a tenner

Bluezar

If Ronnie plays his A game, no one will come near him

mark renton

Semi Finals top half
O Sullivan v Selby

Semi Final bottom half
Maguire v Marco Fu


Final
Selby v Marco Fu

Dave147

Good analysis connie, I reckon Hendry will fall to Ding today, its on in a minute and I'm really looking forward to this. Maguire is hammering Burnett but he's 10x times better and so he should, Maguire doesn't have the endurance to win it. Its between Ronnie, Murphy, Higgins and Ding I reckon. I backed Marco Fu as an outsider and Ding even though if I'm honest he's probably not ready.

Jackeenboy

Is Alex Higgins still playing??He will win

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Gingy

Bluezar wrote: »

If Ronnie plays his A game, no one will come near him

If my aunt had balls etc.....

Ronnie would want to pick it up a bit, he wasn't great against Mark Allen earlier.

Jackeenboy

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Oh sorry I think Jimmie White will win then !

celticfc

Jackeenboy wrote: »

Oh sorry I think Jimmie White will win then !

Keep the embarresment smilie there , because Jimmy hasn't even qualified for the tournament, nevermind made it to the second week. These are the only men left.

hotspur147

connie147 wrote: »

I know a few of the pros from organising exhibitions, and they all seem to be singing from the same hymmsheet "John Higgens FTW". Obviously, we have to wait and see with Ronnie, but I hope they get to meet. What a match-up that would be.

Anyway, my tip,(and I gave it here on another thread a few weeks ago), is to back Steven Hendry to win his quarter (ie: to get to the semi finals).
He has to play Mark Williams in his 1st round(best of 19), if he gets through that he meets probably DingJungWi (best of 25) and if he gets through that, it looks like Sean Murphy in the quarter final.(best of 25). The bookies quote Mark Williams 4/1 to win the quarter while Hendry was an unbelievable 12/1.(best on offer now is 9/1).

Fact--Hendry has played at the crucible on 20 occassions and reached 13 semi-finals.
Fact--Hendry reached last years semi-final where he was 4-1 up on ronnie until a bad kick let Ronnie back in and ultimately changed the course of the match.
Fact-- Hendry has had a bad season to date, but in his own words, theres nothing wrong with his game, he just needs a few match wins under his belt. Well he got those couple of wins that he so desperately wanted at the last ranking event in China, and with his top 16 spot assured, expect to see a rerlaxed and focussed Mr Hendry at the Crucible.
Fact-- Steven Hendry has been 7 times world champion!!

Steve Davis said that Hendry should be an identical price to Williams to win that quarter, so the 9/1 still looks good.

Remember, this is just an opinion. But once he can get through that 1st match against his good friend Mark williams, the best of 25 matches will suit him down to the ground.

Heres hoping anyway!!!


Connie

hendry's lookin good.now 10/11 to win his quarter

connie147

Skinny value now at 10/11.

I organised 3 nights exhibition for him 7 or 8 weeks ago and really, he played quite brilliantly. Minimum 3 or 4 centuries each nite out of 7 frames.
I know exhibitions are not the same thing, but he was exuding confidence and he told me all he needed was a couple of wins under his belt to give him back his match play confidence. He got those at the China open, and now every match he's winning at the crucible is helping him even more.

My problem (and its a nice problem to have) is that I've been backing him every week for the past 7 weeks to win his quarter. 3 times at 12/1, once at 11/1, twice at 19/2 and once at 9/1.
Now I'm wondering of I should now lay this off as its worth a substantial amount of money if he was to go on and win the quarter. I wouldn't really say I'm getting cold feet, but if I leave it run and Hendry wins, I collect 11.5k.
So queastion is:
Do I back Murphy at 4/6 or 4/5,(not sure what price he'll be until he beats Fu) and make 4k if Murphy beats him, while reducing my profit to 5k if hendry wins the quarter, or go for broke?

Opinions?

Connie

rafa no 1

Connie you are the man!

Hendry crept right under my radar until i read your post, backed him at 66/1 on bet fair, he's down to 9's now, also have higgins and maguire as a saver just in case, best i've seen Hendry play in 4/5 years, problem is can he maintain that form? As you say he is playing Murphy next and he too is finding some form, big decision, this has 13-12 written all over it and we know both of these boys can play under the pressure, but if it was my cash i'd stick with Hendry, he seems very focused and pumped up, he's giving every shot that extra second or two, has cut out missing the easy balls and most important he is scoring heavily when he is in the balls.

Every year his chances of winning the eight title get smaller but he would have won it last year only for running into an inspiried o' sullivan, but Hendry in the quaters of the worlds looking sharp and punching the air when he wins looks very ominous, stick with Hendry, you backed him from the start, you knew his form, best of luck to you.

PS,
if he wins and we both collect pm me where you are based and i'll buy you a pint!

Trafford Lad

With Ronnie out of the picture now it has suddenly become very open, I've gone with Selby all along but might look at Ryan Day each way for a bit of value. Robertson is also playing well..not sure about his dodgy hair style though:)

RocketRonnie

connie147 wrote: »

Skinny value now at 10/11.


My problem (and its a nice problem to have) is that I've been backing him every week for the past 7 weeks to win his quarter. 3 times at 12/1, once at 11/1, twice at 19/2 and once at 9/1.
Now I'm wondering of I should now lay this off as its worth a substantial amount of money if he was to go on and win the quarter. I wouldn't really say I'm getting cold feet, but if I leave it run and Hendry wins, I collect 11.5k.
So queastion is:
Do I back Murphy at 4/6 or 4/5,(not sure what price he'll be until he beats Fu) and make 4k if Murphy beats him, while reducing my profit to 5k if hendry wins the quarter, or go for broke?

Opinions?

Connie

Some nice bets there, how much have you staked on Hendry??
You could lay Murphy just to clear your stake in case he wins, without majorly effecting your profit should Hendry win....

hotspur147

connie147 wrote: »

Skinny value now at 10/11.

I organised 3 nights exhibition for him 7 or 8 weeks ago and really, he played quite brilliantly. Minimum 3 or 4 centuries each nite out of 7 frames.
I know exhibitions are not the same thing, but he was exuding confidence and he told me all he needed was a couple of wins under his belt to give him back his match play confidence. He got those at the China open, and now every match he's winning at the crucible is helping him even more.

My problem (and its a nice problem to have) is that I've been backing him every week for the past 7 weeks to win his quarter. 3 times at 12/1, once at 11/1, twice at 19/2 and once at 9/1.
Now I'm wondering of I should now lay this off as its worth a substantial amount of money if he was to go on and win the quarter. I wouldn't really say I'm getting cold feet, but if I leave it run and Hendry wins, I collect 11.5k.
So queastion is:
Do I back Murphy at 4/6 or 4/5,(not sure what price he'll be until he beats Fu) and make 4k if Murphy beats him, while reducing my profit to 5k if hendry wins the quarter, or go for broke?

Opinions?

Connie

it's a nice problem to have connie but you have say that although hendry looked good ding did miss a lot of easy balls and threw away at least 2/3 frames.murphy will not be as charitable,he looks to be playing as well as he did when he won it a few seasons ago so if i were you i'd cover myself by backing murphy.he's 8/11 atm or 10/11 -1.5 frames handicap betting.any way best of luck whatever you decide to do.
p.s best of luck in running the world series event.hope it goes well.also any plans for another pro-am in the gleneagle?

mark renton

connie147 wrote: »

Do I back Murphy at 4/6 or 4/5,(not sure what price he'll be until he beats Fu) and make 4k if Murphy beats him, while reducing my profit to 5k if hendry wins the quarter, or go for broke?

Opinions?

Connie

Lay it off - its very hard to call these games espescially since the pockets are like buckets this year

Im guessing your stake is around the 1k mark, thats 4/1 for hendry to win 2 games

IMO take the 5k and place a 500 bet for hendry to get to the final

connie147

For those of you interested, I did lay some of it off tonite. I got a bit of 4/5 Murphy and I layed it so that if Murphy wins, I'll make about 3k profit while a Hendry win gets me 6k profit. I cant complain with that. Now I can sit back and watch the match tomorrow and enjoy it.

hotspur147 wrote: »

it's a nice problem to have connie but you have say that although hendry looked good ding did miss a lot of easy balls and threw away at least 2/3 frames.murphy will not be as charitable,he looks to be playing as well as he did when he won it a few seasons ago so if i were you i'd cover myself by backing murphy.he's 8/11 atm or 10/11 -1.5 frames handicap betting.any way best of luck whatever you decide to do.
p.s best of luck in running the world series event.hope it goes well.also any plans for another pro-am in the gleneagle?

I am hoping to have another pro-am in the Glen Eagle next Jan/Feb. Let ye know nearer the date.



PS,
if he wins and we both collect pm me where you are based and i'll buy you a pint!

I'm based in Killarney. Hope your bet comes up for you. I'll gladly join you for that pint!!

Connie

Stevecw

I reckon Higgins 4/1 is good value!
He used his get out of jail card today and i reckon he will win it out.
I put 20 on him at 4/1 anyway!

celticfc

celticfc wrote: »

My Picks:

John Higgins (10-1) - Been there, done that etc. Winner in 1998 and 2007. Came into good form last week in China and in the Championship League last month. I'll be very surprised if he's not there or thereabouts come the May bank-hol weekend.

Stephen Hendry (50-1) - How can you not put a couple of quid on him at that price. (My outside bet )

Mark Selby (8-1) - It's hard to bet against him. Runner-up in 2007. Seems to like the crucible. It could be his year.

Ali Carter (9-1) - Runner-up last year but ran out of gas against O'Sullivan in the final. Has had a very good season overall.

Neil Robertson (20-1) - It all depends on which Neil comes out to play, he can be unpredictable, but definitely has the game to win.

Shaun Murphy (14-1) - He had a great win at the UK Ch'ship which is a similar format tourney. 2005 winner.

For some reason I dont see Ronnie winning it & Maguire hasn't been overly impressive at the crucible before.