Turn €20 into €1168

Castlerock

Ok only thinking about this idea the last few days.

You take the best 4/7 odds for your €20 be it premiership, division 1, Serie A darts, rugby, snooker, formula one obviously a bit of research is needed u bet the €20 on it,

If it wins you bet your accumulated winnings on the next 4/7 bet and so on. Looks like this - €20 x 4/7 = 31.42
31.42 x 4/7 = 49.37
49.37 x 4/7 = 77.58
77.58 x 4/7 = 121.91
121.91 x 4/7 = 191.57
191.57 x 4/7 = 301.03
301.03 x 4/7 = 473.05
473.05 x 4/7 = 743.36
743.36 x 4/7 = 1168.13.

so thats hardly rocket science, where this gets interesting is you start with a bankroll of say €1000.

So you have 50 of these €20 running accumulators in place and you only need one to win to be in profit.

1 win/50 = 168.13 profit
2 wins/50 = 1336.26 profit
3 wins/50 = 2504.39 profit
4 wins/50 = 3672.52 profit
5 wins/50 = 4840.65 profit
10 wins/50 = 10681.30 profit

I would love to know what the stats are re win rates for 4/7 favs for all sports and just how many of these accumulators would hit out of 50.

Any one have tips/advice or a better way open to suggestions

Thanks

Words can't describe...

Castlerock

This should be easier to read.

Ok only thinking about this idea the last few days.

You take the best 4/7 odds for your €20 be it premiership division 1, Serie A, darts, rugby, snooker, formula 1 etc obviously a bit of research is needed & u bet the €20 on it.

If it wins you bet your accumulated winnings on the next 4/7 bet and so on.

Looks like this €20 x 4/7 = 31.42
31.42 x 4/7 = 49.37
49.37 x 4/7 = 77.58
77.58 x 4/7 = 121.91
121.91 x 4/7 = 191.57
191.57 x 4/7 = 301.03
301.03 x 4/7 = 473.05
473.05 x 4/7 = 743.36
743.36 x 4/7 = 1168.13

so thats hardly rocket science where this gets interesting is you start with a bankroll of say €1000

So you have 50 of these €20 running accumulators in place and you only need one to win to be in profit.

1 win/50 = 168.13 profit
2 wins/50 =1336.26 profit
3 wins/50 = 2504.39 profit
5 wins/50 = 4840.65 profit
10 wins/50 = 10681.30 profit

I would love to know what the stats are re win rates for 4/7 favs for all sports and just how many of these accumulators would hit out of 50.

Any one have tips/advice or a better way open to suggestions?

Thanks

ErinGoBrath

If it was this simple do you not think we'd all be rich???

mike65

I love these threads

They always fail, if only due to cowardice.

Castlerock

thanks for the detailed responses. are you saying that winning 1 out of 50 of these accumulators isnt achievable?

most people dont have the discipline to manage their bankroll and keep strict betting system or rules so they ve probaly never tried something like this and given it a few months

and as i thought u know nothing about how often a 4/7 fav wins?

so i probaly wouldnt listen to a chump like u anyway but thanks i guess

ErinGoBrath

Castlerock wrote: »

thanks for the detailed responses. are you saying that winning 1 out of 50 of these accumulators isnt achievable?

Anything is possible however not statistically likely to happen.

I haven't got the stats on hand but I do recall a lad on here that worked in a bookies that could tell you the hit rate of 4/7 shots. I think it may have been around 50% which would do your accumulator no favours.

ninebeanrows

Castlerock wrote: »

thanks for the detailed responses. are you saying that winning 1 out of 50 of these accumulators isnt achievable?

most people dont have the discipline to manage their bankroll and keep strict betting system or rules so they ve probaly never tried something like this and given it a few months

and as i thought u know nothing about how often a 4/7 fav wins?
so i probaly wouldnt listen to a chump like u anyway but thanks i guess

I presume your taking the wizz right?

Boston

I'd love to do it, but I gave my last grand to this nice Nigerian prince exile who was in a spot of bother.

wb

Don't know about football, but since 2003 in horse racing - there have been 674 4/7 shots and 383 won (56.82%).

Now, the probability of a 4/7 shot winning (in a true book) is 63.64% to you can see the bookie over-round at work here.

There were ten winning bets in a row on one occasion. On the other side of the coin, there were six losing bets in a row on one occasion.

There were five losing bets in a row on five occasions.

cson

wb wrote: »

Don't know about football, but since 2003 in horse racing - there have been 674 4/7 shots and 383 won (56.82%).

Now, the probability of a 4/7 shot winning (in a true book) is 63.64% to you can see the bookie over-round at work here.

There were ten winning bets in a row on one occasion. On the other side of the coin, there were six losing bets in a row on one occasion.

There were five losing bets in a row on five occasions.

Your knowledge of this stuff never ceases to amaze me wb

@ OP, this has a slim chance of working, it only takes one 4/7 shot to be turned over for you to lose everything. Look at Man Utd tonite, they were even more odds on (at 2/5) than the aforementioned 4/7. Again, if it was this easy would Powers share price be as high as it is?

Fromvert

This time next year, we'll be millionaires me and you.

But seriously if these sort of bets were a guaranteed success, we would all be rich and have no worries. Next weekend have a look at all the odds on teams/horses whatever you want and see how many win. You will soon see that this sort of betting is not worth while.

Castlerock

thanks for replys cson & from vert and particulary wb. exactly what i was looking for.

Interesting re win rate stats on 4/7 favs. lower than i had thought so throws this accumulator thing right out the window.

Once i saw that you only had to win 1 in 50 to be in profit without really looking into it that sounded great.

yeah definately noticed 4/7 favs can be risky you need maybe 1/8 for your so called "dead certs" like ronnie o sullivan 1st round match etc.

and trying to make money from that is impossible.

agree with you on man u aswell 2/5.

Have any of you a good betting strategy atm.(apart from staying away from it obviously )
Thanks

Castlerock

Thinking there ive been doing football accumulators every weekend for 10 yrs and only won twice (then again i havent put all favs in there obviously)

mike65

Last nights angle was not betting on Utd to win, it was Porto +2 at similair odds.

Castlerock

Nice, did you have a piece of that?

I know with pro gamblers that they are constantly looking for the edge to see where the odds are more favourable than they should be. Like croatia v england at 7/1 a few years back when they were topping the group.

Clearly being no expert myself i have noticed a trend where away teams seem (while they are at a clear disadvantage and statisically record fewer wins) the odds are seemingly better than they should be.taking a 1st divison team thats near the top of the division. many places above their opponent & are performing well (away from home) has been profitable for me.

How is a pro gambler managing his stake. He is spreading his roll over accumulators where each event has a distinct edge rather than being the percieved favourite?

NabyLadistheman

I think you have to start betting on 4/7 shots now with your sytem goes. Best of luck!

mike65

Castlerock wrote: »

Nice, did you have a piece of that?

Nope! I was looking at the options and got greedy - went for Porto win 9/1. Utd to win would have been the last thing I'd have done, the price was always stupidly short.

Castlerock

I am curious to see how it would work torres so might give it a try.

but the guys stats for horseracing anyway show a w/r of apprx 55%/60% for 4/7s so that is obviously way too low to make a profit.

and in football where i'd like to bet mostly the odds on favourites at home are shortened even more taking away any value in betting on them.

If im planning to bet €20 on a 7 way accumulator 50 times, with 4/7 odds then i could expect to win maybe 210 of the 350 events.

It would be relying on absolute luck as to if any of my wins come in the same pool of 7, or are spread over the 50 accumulators but with no winners.

actually on that whats the probability if i get 210/350 wins of getting 7 of those grouped together? thats way over my head.

ErinGoBrath

Castlerock wrote: »

If im planning to bet €20 on a 7 way accumulator 50 times, with 4/7 odds then i could expect to win maybe 210 of the 350 events.

A 7 way accum each team at 4/7 is roughly 24/1 so statistically you'd only get 15 of the 310 in.

frozenman

its human beings that make the betting and elect someone or something to be favorite,and you know yourself what they are like:D:D:D

Shazforgrub

I developed a system that worked well a few times but I can never stick to my limits and always lose my hard earned profits in a few moments of madness!!

It goes like this:

Look for a quick race paying out on 2 places, generally something from lingfield or sandown.

If the favourite is odds on to place, lay it for a tenner. Eg lay it at 1.5, if it doesn't place, you get 10 euro, if does, you lose five (for example).

Then back the horse for a fiver at whatever its at, lets say 4.0

This means if it doesn't place you win 10, losing 5 for the win, 5 profit.
If it does win you get 15 euro, less 5 paid out on the place > 10 profit

Now if it does place, you lose 15. i don't know what the stats are for favourits coming second, but it happens fairly regularly in my experience!! This can be accounted for by laying the win in running for more than the sum total of your potential losses, if you think its going to place. Eg lay for 16 euro at 1.2, meaning you win 15 -3.2 = 11.8 for the win, less 5 for the place, which leaves you with 5.8 profit if it wins, but if it comes second you no longer lose 15, you make 16, less 10 bet on the win and 5 paid out for the place > 1 euro profit.

However... the catch is the horse make still come second without the odds going low enough for you to lay the win bet off cheaply, and thats where i got burned when i upped my stakes and played in races paying out 3 places:( I'm still convinced I can make it work if I learn to be more disciplined but thats probably just the gambling addict in me talking!!

scull2009

that last post just went way over my head.
There is a pro gambler - Harry Findlay
He backs favourites at say 1/10 odds with about £100,000 for £10,000 profit etc, that is how its done, you stake big, to win decent, but it is a huge gamble really.
in the case of united on tuesday you would bet £10,000 on united draw no bet for about £1,000 profit.

put him into google, some good reading, also outrageous.

hxxp://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/profiles/flash-harry-the-outrageous-world-of-britains-premier-punter-793573.html

mike65

Read that article, he won 180,000 grand on Liverpool/Inter result, I won 80!

getonyourboots

Suppose you did start backing 4/7 shots with 20 euro each and even if one of two of your betting lines came in, would your profit not be quite small considering the time and effort involved????????

Shazforgrub

scull2009 wrote: »

that last post just went way over my head.

Sorry, i should have specified I'm referring to betting and laying on betfair