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Variance

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  • 06-04-2009 10:04pm
    #1
    FullOf..IT
    Registered Users Posts: 368 ✭✭


    Hi,

    Right we all know that IPOKER is rigged but can anyone shed some light on this for me.

    Ive played 70k of hands at .25/.50. I am down 12 buy ins on EV adjusted.

    How big a smaple size does variance sort to even out?


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    #2
    DeadMoney
    Registered Users Posts: 1,127 ✭✭✭DeadMoney


    FullOf..IT wrote: »
    Hi,

    Right we all know that IPOKER is rigged but can anyone shed some light on this for me.

    Ive played 70k of hands at .25/.50. I am down 12 buy ins on EV adjusted.

    How big a smaple size does variance sort to even out?

    It never really "evens out". It is possible that you are just running bad over the past 70k hands, but variance at 50nl is not usually that rough if you are playing straight forward TAG. Are you reviewing your play? What are your stats?

    70k hands is still a some what small sample believe it or not. CTS was one of the most successful mid stakes players ever and he had a break even stretch of 200k hands when he was at mid stakes.


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    #3
    zuutroy
    Registered Users Posts: 6,854 ✭✭✭zuutroy


    12 buyins....lol...thats like pocket change......I'm 100 bi below EV this year over about 120k hands. I don't think anyone realises how long it can take to even out. I literally cant win a hand this year.


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    #4
    Rb
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,277 ✭✭✭✭Rb


    zuutroy wrote: »
    12 buyins....lol...thats like pocket change......I'm 100 bi below EV this year over about 120k hands. I don't think anyone realises how long it can take to even out. I literally cant win a hand this year.
    Graph?


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    #5
    TommyGunne
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,771 ✭✭✭TommyGunne


    So you expect to run above EV simply because you ran below EV in the past? Flip 10 coins in a row, all heads. What is the probability the 11th is a tail? Your expected value from now until infinity is 0 above or below EV.


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    #6
    zuutroy
    Registered Users Posts: 6,854 ✭✭✭zuutroy


    Rb wrote: »
    Graph?

    I deleted a **** load of hands from my HM DB. Let me see if they're still archived.


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    #7
    [nicK]
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,639 ✭✭✭[nicK]


    plough on through imo, all-in ev isn't everything.. you are likely running much better/worse than those graphs represent, you will never know..


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    #8
    zuutroy
    Registered Users Posts: 6,854 ✭✭✭zuutroy


    [nicK] wrote: »
    plough on through imo, all-in ev isn't everything.. you are likely running much better/worse than those graphs represent, you will never know..

    worse imo :)


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    #9
    CourierCollie
    Registered Users Posts: 663 ✭✭✭CourierCollie


    Please, no more hands or graphs Zuutroy. I'm depressed enough as it is.


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    #10
    cooker3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,646 ✭✭✭cooker3


    Yeah those all in ev graphs are very over-rated and people put way too much stock in them imo.
    I posted one a few months back where it looked like I ran terribly but I barely even noticed it. The problem can be if you let it affect your mindset and you think you are always unlucky or some such rubbish.


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    #11
    cardshark202
    Registered Users Posts: 5,434 ✭✭✭cardshark202


    **** variance imo


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    #12
    Whyno
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,142 ✭✭✭Whyno


    cardshark202 wrote: »
    **** variance imo

    I can write a book on this...


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    #13
    Slash/ED
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,163 ✭✭✭Slash/ED


    Not only should you not even care how well you are or aren't running, all in EV doesn't even come close to showing it anyway. You can be many buy ins below EV and still have run above expectation over the same sample size, and the other way around obviously


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