A Question on a foreign gov (not recession related)

smallBiscuit

My question is on Venezuela and Hugo Chavez.
I saw that documentary "The revolution will not be televised" last week and was massively impressed by Chavez. I think his government is open and good for the poor, which of course means the rich don't like him.
I know from the documentary, that the private (US owned) tv stations and the US gov hate him and appear to be making a lot of accusations about him, but to me he looked like a good guy who cared for his people and wanted reforms for the people, not for the money. I spoke to a few people about him and the general reaction was "he's an evil dictator, in league with the devil, blah blah" But to me he doesn't look that way at all.
I know there are a few very intelligent people on this board, so my question for you is, do you think he's good for Venezuela or is he an evil person, in league with the devil and al qaeda :eek:

Oh, and can anyone back up what they say? links to articles both pro and against would be great

mikemac

It is an excellent documentary and got a limited cinema release in Ireland too.
All done by an Irish production crew too which is good too I suppose

It's a few years old now though

I don't know enough about the guy to comment, just recommending the documentary to others

spadder

was a great documentary, I remember hearing the guys on the radio a few years back, I think they just happened to be there when the attempted coup took place.

I think Chavez is a good leader, he explains his decisions every week on a TV show ( Cowen take note).
He was vilified by Bush because he started linking their oil prices with the euro and other south American countries.

In Venezuela, if your rich you hate him, if your poor you love him.

smallBiscuit

spadder wrote: »

was a great documentary, I remember hearing the guys on the radio a few years back, I think they just happened to be there when the attempted coup took place.

Yes, they were there making a docu on Chavez when the attempted coup took place

spadder wrote: »

He was vilified by Bush because he started linking their oil prices with the euro and other south American countries.

But that then calls into question everything bush said/they now say. All of the private stations were US owned or backed (I think). They vilified Chavez.
It makes me wonder about other "enemies of the west". Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and others, all their leaders who don't support the US and allow them to take what they want are evil. The big tv stations around the west are owned by US companies and these people are evil because they say they are.
It reminds me of the Lees Cross uprour a few years ago*. My other half works in "Granny care" and she's told me that documentary was very biased, they went in with the idea that old folk were mistreated and proved it.
What happened to the other side? This old man is kept in a Bunsen chair all day, that's terrible (and it is), but what wasn't said was, if we let him out he attacks the other residents and staff. 3 people ended up in hospital (not saying it's true, but something like it probably is).
This man is strapped into his bed all night, how cruel. If we let him out he rapes the women in the home (and it does happen, probably more often than you'd like to think)


* I'm not saying that the staff were right by the way, I'm just making a point about biased news reporting

silverharp

his economic policies seem insane , shortages , price controls , blackmarkets. He was able to indulge his policies with free oil money , it will be interesting to see how he does if oil prices stay low.


http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=36503


VENEZUELA:: Shortages, Speculation Amid Rising Consumption
By Humberto Márquez

CARACAS, Feb 9 (IPS) - Estela Piñero, a head of household who lives near the government palace in the Venezuelan capital, does not go to the market to buy sugar. Instead, she buys it at three times the official price from informal vendors on a street corner.

"I got my black beans the same way, and it looks like we'll have to do it again to get beef. Maybe people are buying a lot, maybe the government isn't keeping order, but the result is that goods are scarce and more expensive," Piñero complained to IPS.

Some items disappear for days or weeks from entire middle- or lower-income neighbourhoods, forcing people to change their habits - from, for example, refined white sugar to bars of dark brown sugar - or simply to wait until the product is back on the shelves. Then people stock up nervously for fear of another shortage.

The shortages have occurred within a bubble of consumerism that is affecting the Venezuelan economy. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew 10.3 percent in 2006, according to official figures, while consumption increased by 16.3 percent.

Imports, which hovered between eight and 10 billion dollars a year over the last decade, reached a record 31.3 billion dollars in 2006, equivalent to 54 percent of the country's oil income and 27 percent higher than the 2005 figure.

Sales of cars shot up to an unprecedented 343,351 new vehicles in 2006, according to the Automobile Industry Chamber of Commerce (CAVENEZ), breaking the former record of 228,378 cars sold in 2005, in this country of 27 million people with a national fleet of 3.5 million cars, buses and trucks on its roads.

By the end of January this year, 28,600 new vehicles had already been sold (the most inexpensive cost about 10,000 dollars), one-third more than in January 2006. "There is a four month waiting list, or else you have to pay the salesperson a commission under the table," Margarita Gómez, who has made her first payment and is waiting for a European car, told IPS.

According to the Central Bank, inflation stood at 14.9 percent in 2006. Alarmingly, inflation for the month of January was two percent, and the food price index was up 4.2 percent, making it unlikely that this year's 12 percent inflation target will be met.

Legislators met government authorities this week to discuss measures to curb price rises.

Prices in the food industry rose by 26 percent in 2006. The Venezuelan population spends an average of 41 percent of its income on food, but a much higher percentage of income is spent by those with the lowest incomes, economist Luis León, director of the Datanálisis survey company, told IPS.

Shortages, speculation and bottlenecks in the chain of production, imports and marketing have contributed to the inflationary cocktail, according to spokespersons for the private sector, just when President Hugo Chávez has given the order to accelerate the advance on all fronts towards a vaguely defined "21st century socialism".

As for sugar, Venezuela produces more than two-thirds of the one million tons consumed yearly, from an annual output of 9.8 million tons of sugarcane, "but there's been no production incentives policy for the past 25 years," according to Rafael Chirinos, president of the Federation of Sugarcane Growers (FESOCA).

Gustavo Moreno, president of the large agricultural producers' association FEDEAGRO, said that "price controls create problems for the profitability and importation of sugar. The government didn't plan ahead of time to import the deficit of 250,000 tons, and the result was this shortage."

Piñero paid 2.30 dollars a kilo for the sugar she bought from the street vendors. "They get it from Mercal (the government chain of markets of subsidised foodstuffs), don't ask me how, at 1,300 bolívars (60 cents of a dollar, the official controlled price) and then sell it at a higher price," she complained.

Products like beef, tuna and other fish, dairy products, chicken, several cereals, coffee and flour have also been subject to similar shortages in recent weeks, said Óscar Meza, of the economic analysis centre sponsored by the teachers' union.

"The government should update its frozen prices, because on average there's a 30 percent lag between the costs of production and marketing and the approved sales prices," said Meza. "Or else they should show that 21st century socialism can solve the problem in a different way."

The official price of beef is 4.25 dollars a kilo for the best cuts, but even in MERCAL outlets it has been sold at more than this, and in privately-owned supermarkets meat is 80 percent more expensive on average.

The government consumer protection office closed down a supermarket chain for 48 hours last week for selling beef at above the regulated price, which must be adhered to universally by retailers. The result was that other chains have stopped selling beef.

"If only the slaughterhouses and meat-packing plants would sell us beef at the official cost of 1.30 dollars the kilo, then we could sell it at the controlled prices," said Carlos Carvalho, president of the National Association of Supermarkets. "We can't afford the risk of being closed down because of a discrepancy in just one product."

But Ignacio Díaz of the Slaughterhouses and Meat Processing Plants Association (ASOFRIGO) said "We can't sell at the controlled price when we're paying two dollars a kilo for cattle on the hoof, 52 percent more than last year."

In turn, Genaro Méndez of the Cattle Ranchers' Federation (FEDENAGA), claimed that "the government can't impose price controls that are out-of-date and don't take into account the increased costs of production," quite apart from the fact that other Latin American countries, such as Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica and Panama, have increased their beef prices.

Agriculture Minister Elías Jaua said "We are under pressure to increase food prices, and to float the dollar. But we shall stand firm. Profit margins for producers have shrunk, but they aren't making a loss."

In January the government granted agricultural producers a two-year income tax exemption (a traditional measure in Venezuela's economy), and Jaua announced that private banks had been instructed to devote 21 percent of their credit funds to the agricultural sector. Until 2006 the proportion was 16 percent.

The other topic Jaua mentioned was exchange controls. Officially the dollar is worth 2,150 bolívars, although on the black market it changes hands for twice that amount. The government delivers dollars at the official rate to pay for imports of intermediate goods or final consumer products, when it is proven that there are insufficient dollars available in the country.

For weeks at a time, goods like spare parts for cars, medical articles, inputs for foods, toiletries and luxury goods have been absent from the lists of items eligible to receive dollars at the official exchange rate, which has put demand pressure on black market dollars, said opposition economist José Guerra.

One of Venezuela's economic problems is its dependence on imported foods, because of the limited development of its farming sector.

Former minister of agriculture Hiram Gaviria, who supported Chávez during the first three years of his administration (1999-2001), said "This government is the one that has hit the self-reliance of Venezuelan agriculture the hardest."

According to statistics cited by Gaviria, agrifood imports were worth 2.4 billion dollars in 2004, twice the average yearly figure for the previous decade. They rose to a value of over three billion dollars in 2005, and 3.5 billion dollars in 2006.

Food minister General Rafael Oropeza announced that food would be imported so that shortages and distribution problems through MERCAL, which supplies nine million low-income consumers, would be alleviated within three months.

Jaua, for his part, announced that the government would provide nearly 1.2 billion dollars this year to finance, together with the private banks, 270,000 agricultural producers, 25,000 livestock raisers and 174 fishing areas, in order to boost domestic food production to 22.7 million tons, 26 percent more than the 18 million tons of food produced in 2006. (END/2007)

dresden8

silverharp wrote: »

He was able to indulge his policies with free oil money ,

So was Thatcher, the right wing love her.

smallBiscuit

Interesting outcome to 21st century socialism and shows Chavez's policies in a different light.

What to do though? I believe, his interest is helping the poor, but according to that report he is failing them, it's kinda depressing. Shows that socialism doesn't work.

So capitalism doesn't work out, socialism doesn't work out, what does?

Manic Moran

On a personal level, I don't think he's evil. I think he's power-mad, and I strongly disagree with his policies.

For starters, this is a guy sufficiently dedicated to the will of the people that he attempted a military coup when he was in uniform. I have issue with this as a character statement right off the bat. The repeated attempts to get the Constitution changed to keep him in power indefinitely has not further endeared him to me. No matter how much a media outlet (US-owned Univision or otherwise, RCTV is not US owned) may dislike the guy in charge, shutting it off is another act I take issue with. I cannot help but wonder if the shift in power when it comes to controlling the media may have had an effect on his recent success in lifting the term limits. (Though I am heartened by the fact that his government is losing ground in recent elections)

I think that he's taken nationalisation a tad too far. Marching troops into the ports and airports last week is going to achieve what, exactly?

But my biggest gripe is what he's done to the economy. He's based it completely on oil. As long as world-wide oil prices remained high, the State was bringing in plenty of petrol-dollars which he could then redistribute to everyone. His price controls are bringing down the standard of living on farmers at the same time as the handouts are increasing the standards of the country's poorest. Inflation is at a region-wide high of 30%. Crime is all but out of control (Granted, unusual for a centralised State). He's turned Venezuela into the largest arms importer in South America (when you're spending more money on buying hardware than Brazil, that's saying something in South America), which resulted in lots of shiny toys for him to play with but of limited military utility whilst being far beyond that required to maintain the current abilities vis-a-vis local threats such as Colombia. One would argue that he would be a lot better off investing in the country and its economy for times when the oil money may no longer be around in such plentiful supply to prop up his economy. The fall in oil prices this year has seen him make many cuts in his plans, so we'll see how this affects his popularity when he's no longer giving out the state subsidies. I really wonder if his economy is not a paper tiger, looking reasonable right now, but with no strength behind the outer shell.

NTM

ArphaRima

I think it just comes down to the fact that socialism doesnt work. His policies are doomed to fail. Especially because he is in a democracy. Communist parties stay in power because they cant be voted out. He can and I believe will be.
Corruption will always win when a government unrealistically attempts to control price and supply. The black market will always win. A free market will adapt. A controlled market has vested interests. Usually by those who control it.
I bet their Civil Service is doing quite well for themselves right now. They are making millions "helping" the poor by controlling the market to their advantage. I lived in a communist country for a few years. The rich were the ones who controlled the official market, and those who could circumvent it.

Even if he does have his heart in the right place, his policies are flawed and will drive his country into deeper poverty over the long term.
Oil has kept him in power until now. Let's wait and see how the free market influences his protected one...