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Markets making a return.?

  • 14-03-2009 11:14PM
    #1
    HashSlinging
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,412 ✭✭✭


    Markets are rebounding in the US, does anyone have an explanation for it. Is this the bail out effect?


Comments

  • #2
    JackieT
    Closed Accounts Posts: 44 ✭JackieT


    Methinks bear market rally! It's a bailout effect in the sense that some banks got a massive bailout, and they're now posting a profit.

    My friend in the US tells me that things are dire there, massive queues to the soup kitchens, restaurants and stadiums are empty, many of her friends are unemployed

    I think we won't see a turnaround in the US until earliest late this year, which is when i'll be going long SPY and equities (for a buy & hold strategy)!


  • #3
    HashSlinging
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,412 ✭✭✭HashSlinging


    hmmm.. I just read this and its very coincidental.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=59417255&postcount=149


  • #4
    daveirl
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,483 ✭✭✭✭daveirl


    This post has been deleted.


  • #5
    silverharp
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,854 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    it not THE bottom and you could see a decent rally into April/May, the only problem with these rallies are ethe easy money is made in the first few days.

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



  • #6
    Compak
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 428 ✭✭Compak


    No way the bottom, Question is do we even get another week or two out of it I ask.

    Very easy to crash back down with a bang.

    I sold my Citi for profit friday and will only buy now as I see how markets react daily


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  • #7
    HashSlinging
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,412 ✭✭✭HashSlinging


    So no recovery yet, how long would the rally need to be before it is classed as a recovery.


  • #8
    Saabdub
    Closed Accounts Posts: 228 ✭✭Saabdub


    Stock markets discount future earnings often up to two quarters ahead. So this week's rally was looking forward to results coming out in September. With all the liquidity made available in the US, low P/E ratios, stocks of manufactured goods running down, house building restarting and the positive comments of Bernanke the panic sellers took a break long enough for values to recover a bit. But any more bad news can easily start another round of selling. But a point will come when the people who are selling will be outnumbered by the people who are buying and holding. Then the market will start to recover. Lots of people like me have been buying, in my case through a tracker fund, right through the bear market.

    Saabdub


  • #9
    A Random Walk
    Closed Accounts Posts: 346 ✭✭A Random Walk


    There are some very encouraging signs in commodities and emerging markets. Mark Mobius effectively called a bottom today in emerging markets, Bernanke is calling for an end to recession by end 2009, Grantham is putting money back into equities and some well known "short" fund managers are advising clients not to give them any more funds. Good news has outpaced bad news over the past 6 weeks or so and personally I am far more optimistic today than I have been for the past 12 months.

    Markets will lead the real economy i.e. stock markets will recover before this becomes obvious in the real economy. The question now is whether this is a bear market rally built on false hope or the beginning of the recovery. As of today my bet is the latter but without huge confidence in that call. I think maybe the first few days of this rally were a belief that the banks were returning, I think gains in recent days have been driven by hopes of an end to the recession itself.


  • #10
    daveirl
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,483 ✭✭✭✭daveirl


    This post has been deleted.


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