Cheltenham Day One

Danny2580

Well, Cheltenham day one has arrived and it looks like the ground is good to soft, but the times of the opening race will tell us a lot more. What follows is a preview of the day one card, along with suggested bets for those of you who like a bet on every race. Following that is details of our value bet of the day, Celestial Halo in the Champion Hurdle.


1.30 Cheltenham RED MOLONEY e/w @12/1, KEMPES e/w @10/1 (Bet 365 - pays four places and prices guaranteed)

A decent renewal without looking a vintage one on paper at least. Cousin Vinny hasn't travelled over well and didn't eat up when he arrived at Cheltenham, so he can't be backed in my opinion. He was no value at 3/1 anyway, and although Patrick Mullins is decent I'd prefer a better jock in a race of this nature. Torphicen is next in the market, non French-bred 4yo's don't have a good record in this race and I'm not sure about the value of his form, so I've opposed him too. I can't have Go Native, he looks like a Noel Meade bridlemuncher to me, and I'm not sure what he'll find off the snaff coming up the hill. Micheal Flips looks a good one, but Tony McCoy seems to have chosen Ainama over this one and that's enough to deflect my interest. Red Moloney was very good on the flat and has taken quite well to hurdling. He has won three small races at Musselburgh in the run up to this and although he hasn't beaten much, he seems to find off the bridle and see out the two miles really well. He impressed me visually with the way he went past Houston Dynamo and is right up there with the best of these having posted an RPR of 142 that day. The only question mark is whether his jumping will hold up in this quickly run race. The stable prepared Arcalis to win this race in a similar way and he is good value at 12/1, with 1/4 odds 4 places and the price guaranteed at Bet365. Kempes represents Willie Mullins and has Ruby Walsh in the plate. Like Red Moloney he is unbeaten over hurdles and I liked the way he worked at Leopardstown the other week. He looks like an improver, the stable know how to win this, and at 10/1 and the same each-way terms with Bet365 is good value.

2.05 Cheltenham CALGARY BAY to win @ 13/2 (Sporting Odds)

Last year everyone said Tidal Bay couldn't win this, and I've heard some good judges make similar noises about this one a year on. I just watched the Racing UK preview and Dave Nevison called Calgary Bay a soft horse, but I have an entirely different view. I see a horse who ran a 152 when winning at this course in January. Next time out, Dominic Elsworth made a mistake in my view of trying to match Free World for mid race pace, and he used up too much petrol in doing so. Twice in that contest, Free World made moves that Calgary Bay covered by laying upsides. Free world is highly regarded, he is a fast horse and a quick jumper, who simply hasn't been seeing his races out, possibly due to a breathing problem. I think Calgary Bay did really well to lay up with him at a course which doesn't suit as well as Cheltenham, and stay on as well as he did behind Panjo Bere at the finish. He jumped the last like a lion and if he's close enough to put in such a good leap at the last tomorrow, I think he will win. A.P. McCoy takes the ride, obviously a huge positive.

2.40 Cheltenham HOT WELD e/w @ 50/1, MALJIMAR e/w @ 14/1 (Paddy Power, pays 5 places, guaranteed price)

A race I will not be getting heavily involved with. How Weld gets cheekpieces reapplied and given Ferdy Murphy's festival record I can resist throwing a small few quid at this one each-way at a monster price. Maljimar is a decent sort of Nick Williams who runs well here. I think the step up in trip will see him eke out more improvement and off a mark of 138 and a good racing weight of 10-5, he has a decent chance of making the frame at least. I'm wary of Wichita Lineman who is talented but looks a bit off a monkey.

3.20 Cheltenham CELESTIAL HALO e/w @9/1, WON IN THE DARK e/w (if no further rain) @33/1, MUIRHEAD e/w (If significant further rain) @40/1 (William Hill and Bet365, pay 4 places)

Bet 365 offer 1/4 the first 4 for their each-way terms here. Celestial Halo's "true" chance of running in the first three is 2/1 if we use Betfair as a guide, but with their 8/1 each-way Bet 365 are basically giving me 2/1 on the horse to run in the first four. That's my kind of each-way bet. The horse is young, progressive, has festival winning form, Ruby Walsh on board, and a top trainer who has been very vocal regarding his chances in recent weeks. Generally I don't like Nicholls' hurdlers, but I think they have a real street fighter here who will stay every yard up the hill. He has posted RPR's of 165 on his last two runs and can take Binocular's measure up the run in. Won In The Dark looks the best of the bigger prices and unless there is a late deluge, I think the ground has just about stayed good enough for him to put his best foot forward. Another 5yo, he is trained by Sabrina Harty and ran a nice race at last years festival behind Celestial Halo. He looks to have improved again and is another who worked really well at Leopardstown. Muirhead comes into the equation in the event of significant rain. He impressed behind Brave Inca in the Irish Champion Hurdle and has been campaigned lightly.

4.00 Cheltenham PUNTAL e/w @ 25/1 (Generally - get a guaranteed price)

Probably folly to oppose the Enda Bolger horses but Puntal does possess one intriguing piece of form at this course. Ran well over a trip which is now inadequate last time out, staying on at Newbury after losing his place when the race hotted up, and that should put him spot on for this. If he can run up to that form again, he can go close, although he probably has to run the race of his life to put it up to the Bolger pair.

4.40 Cheltenham QUEVEGA to win @ 3/1 (Coral)

Interesting mares hurdle but I'm going to have to be unoriginal here and suggest the favourite Quevega. The manner of her victory last time out was impressive and this race seems to lack strength in depth. United is an admirable horse, but seems to reserve her very best form for Haydock. Issaquah and Sweetheart represent value at bigger prices but I reckon favourite backers will go home happy on day one.

Danny2580

1.30 Cheltenham HENNESSY each-way @ 40/1 (bet365 each way 4places)

Monster price for a horse who has a really good record at Cheltenham and should relish this step up in trip. Ridden by one of the better amateurs, and represents Carl Llewellyn, whose stable have been in much better form of late. Hennessy was running a real good race at last years festival until he came down when challenging, and I just don't think his course form has been factored into his price at all. I reckon this race has been the plan for a while and I have a lot of respect for this stable.

2.05 Cheltenham KARABAK to win @ 7/2

A course winner, has progressed very well since being beaten by Mad Max. Personally, I wish he had gone for the Supreme Novices, (I was on at all sorts of prices!), and I still think it may have been the right race for him. A really nice compact sort who jumps fluently, J.P. McManus recently bought him and although the value has now gone and I won't be backing him, he is the most likely winner in my view.


2.40 Cheltenham COOLDINE to win @ 4/1

Admirably consistent horse who represents a stable who have had some notable successes in this race. Willie Mullins has had this in mind for the horse for some time, possibly as far back as last year when he kept the horse in Ireland instead of sending him over for one of the festival novice hurdles. In fairness I don't think this is a vintage renewal and I really think a clean round of jumping should see him win this.

3.20 Cheltenham WELL CHIEF to win w/o Master Minded @ 5/1 (William Hill)

Barring unsoundness or a mistake, Master Minded wins this on all known form. Well Chief is best of the rest by a mile if he retains his old form, and I really don't think David Pipe would have kept him in training unless he thought he had a good chance today. I make him a 3/1 shot to finish second so Hills' 5/1 rates really good value.

4.00 Cheltenham MIRAGE DOR each-way @ 16/1, NINETIETH MINUTE each-way @ 16/1 (Bet 365 - pays 5 places, price guaranteed)

I think, at 16/1, Mirage Dor is one of the most overpriced horses of the meeting. A progressive course and distance winner running off 10-0 at the bottom of the handicap, who has absolutely everything in his favour including all the race trends, I make him an 8/1 shot and I can't believe this price. The fact that he has a female jockey on top has a lot to do with the price, but she knows him well and is one of the best female amateurs. She also takes off a handy 3lb and I think Mirage Dor should go close to winning and I can't see him out of the first five. Ninetieth Minute is the pick of the Irish and I know Tom Taafe rates this fella very highly and thinks he is really well handicapped. He beat Solwith last time out, and Solwith went and won the Red Mills in a canter next time out. Again looks overpriced and we'll back both each-way with Bet365.


4.40 Cheltenham MISS SARRENE to win @ 8/1

Should have given AP his 3000th winner but for a last hurdle fall, many believe the ride that day to have been a scouting mission for JP McManus who has since bought the talented mare. Looks very well handicapped based on what she was about to do that day, and gets in off a handy weight today. Generally this race tends to be a bit of a lottery but I think this is a really nice horse and if her jumping holds up today I think 8/1 looks like value.

5.15 Cheltenham SICILIAN SECRET to win @ 11/2 (SportingBet)

Worked the pants off everything else Willie Mullins has at Leopardstown the other week. Everyone's blabbing on about Rites Of Passage and he may well win, but I'd rather stick with the man who wins this race year in year out, and Mullins is that man. Look out for Dunguid and Shinrock Paddy to acquit themselves well.

thewools

good going Danny - NINETIETH MINUTE was a nice pick...

Had Cooldine myself...