Trainbairn 2009

mike65

This guy made a lot of peeps richer in 2007, last year was a very poor sequel!

Still, here are his considered picks for Tueaday this year
http://www.expertbettingadvice.co.uk/forum/thread33136.html

mike65

Okay I've just put his first stated selections (some races he has two) into a place bet accu on PP - 2600/1

That'll do nicely

finbarrk

OK thanks Mike. I hadn't seen that fella before so we'll give him a chance tomorrow.

GERMAN ROCKS

ya im going to try his selections aswell for the crack of it.

Hobart

I think everybody had a disaster last year :-/. I also think that Cousin Vinny will not win SNH.

Heisenberg.

This post has been deleted.

nhughes100

In fairness last year was a shocker for favorites, gambling sites blocked so could ppl post his tips here pls?

shrapnel222

nhughes100 wrote: »

In fairness last year was a shocker for favorites, gambling sites blocked so could ppl post his tips here pls?

Kempes 1pt e/w

Calgary Bay(already placed 2pts Win Ante-Post)/Bringbackthebiff(0.5 e/w)/Golden Silver 2x 0.5pt e/w

Star De Mohaison/Nenuphar Collonges 2x 1pt e/w

Katchit/ Ebazyian 2x 1pt e/w

Dix Villez 1pt e/w/ Benefit Night 0.5pt e/w

Chomba Womba 1pt e/w

flanzer

I'm keeping my money in my pocket today. I see how he goes. If all goes well for him, I might start lumping on tomorrow!

woodyg

I went with his picks €20 total stake of e/w accumulator and single e/w bets see how it goes.

I put a single e/w on Hardy Eustace as well.

Total return potential of €1000,000.00 :P

nhughes100

Well first race in and Kempes and cousin Vinny nowhere.

woodyg

Trainbairn has net problems, here are his selections.

1.30 Le Beau Bai and Niche Market

2.05 China Rock

2.40 Killyglen

3.20 Scotsirish

4.00 Kirkybroguelantern and Altilhar

4.40 El Presidente

madma

can someone post up his thursday tips like the above post as i dont have any access to gambling sites in work cheers.......

slingerz

woodyg wrote: »

Trainbairn has net problems, here are his selections.

1.30 Le Beau Bai and Niche Market

2.05 China Rock

2.40 Killyglen

3.20 Scotsirish

4.00 Kirkybroguelantern and Altilhar

4.40 El Presidente

hope his net problems stopped him placing bets too!

dodzy

madma wrote: »

can someone post up his thursday tips like the above post as i dont have any access to gambling sites in work cheers.......

Please dont !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!;)

trainbairn

Day three awaits and still winner number one escapes me so far. Been a poor festival for me punting wise so far, but the big positive is that it just takes one winner and everything in the garden looks so much rosier. Shows how little fortune I am having at present that I did a treble on the favourites yesterday on the special bet available at all three meetings and whilst two of them came up, one meeting did me for the treble by just ten points with joint fav’s going the wrong way for me again. That old blues song about if I didn’t have bad luck I would have no luck at all springs to mind.

1.30 Jewson Handicap

Backing two in this race each way and the first one has had it’s form franked twice at this year’s Festival already. Tranquil Sea has only had three runs over fences so far, but was impressive on it’s first run and next time out there was problems with it’s back found after the race as an excuse for finishing well beaten when favourite. Last time out he jumped well in the main before a lack of race sharpness caught up with him behind Cooldine and Forpaddydeplaster at Leopardstown in the PJ Moriarty and both those horses have gone on to Grade 1 novice success at this year’s Festival so perhaps it was a stiff task anyway. His stable landed the Coral Cup yesterday with Ninetieth Minute and at 10/1 he looks cracking value if that run has brought him on.

At far bigger odds, a chance can be taken with Nigel Twiston-Davies trained Crescent Island who perhaps doesn’t look the most obvious at first glance but a further delve down shows more of a chance.

CRESCENT ISLAND (IRE)

Record by direction;
LH: 61322131342( 3-11)
RH: 1RR (1-3)

Conclusion; He has run out on his last two runs right handed so needs to go left handed.

Field size
11 or more runners: R1311(3-5)
10 or less runners: 1622R3342(1-9)

Conclusion: He is best in big fields.

Summary of ideal conditions:

When racing on left-handed tracks, in fields of eleven runners or more, his record reads:1311( 3-4).

On his last run under these conditions, he thumped Kia Kaha (who re-opposes today) off level weights and now is just one pound worse off for beating him three and three quarter lengths so surely if you fancy Kia Kaha then you have to fancy the Twiston- Davies runner as well at far bigger prices.

2.05 Pertemps Handicap Final

The race sometimes referred to in the Qualifiers for this final as the race where triers line up at the front, non triers line up at the back. Everything is sure to be a trier now that a festival win is on the agenda and one horse stands out at reasonable prices for an each way bet in a race that looks hugely competitive. The Nicky Henderson trained Galient was always best on his first couple of runs each season after a long break(off for 76 days) and I also think it was significant that the stable got his qualification in early in the season so as to allow him to have that break when the ground would have been against him in mid-winter. Although the ground isn’t quite quick enough, he will come here a fresh horse and reasonably handicapped given that he is now 15lbs better off with Ballydub who won that Newbury qualifier they ran in back in November. At 16/1 he looks another cracking each way bet to nothing in my opinion, especially with Geraghty back in the saddle again today.

2.40 Ryanair Chase

Part of me wishes the connections of both Voy Por Ustedes and Tidal Bay ill will for doing that typically British thing and wimping out of taking on Master Minded yesterday, but that would be childish and immature of me!. The only value left in this race has to be with the Ferdy Murphy trained L’antartique who was only 15/2 for last year’s renewal of this race when running poorly and yet suddenly is as big as 25/1 for this years running. If there is one trainer who punters know can bring one back to the boil just nicely then it is Ferdy and this one has plenty of back form of winning runs round Cheltenham, having won the Jewson and Paddy Power in his day. With just ten runners in the race I would much rather back him at the price he is, given that the place part of the bet pays more than Voy Por will for just winning the race and there are just as many questions unanswered about many of those rivals outside the top two in the betting.

3.20 World Hurdle

The second Grade 1 of the day, and a market dominated by the big three of Kasbah Bliss, Punchestown and Big Buck’s. Is there any value left in the race? I think there is at a cracking price, especially from the each way angle. Powerstation was beaten at odds-on last time out but he has to have good ground, or good to soft, to be seen at his best as well as racing at Cheltenham. He has four second placed finishes at the track, including two seconds at the Festival as well behind Black Jack Ketchum in the Albert Bartlett and Burntoakboy in the 2007 Coral Cup so we know the big race meeting temperament is there and since I can’t have Big Bucks with anyone’s, it could well be left for Eammon O’connell’s charge to fill at least one of the places and his win chance is slightly underestimated by the bookmakers in my opinion.

4.00 Freddie Williams Festival Plate
A competitive handicap run in memory of one of the most fearless layers to have graced the turf, and it looks like his old adversary J P McManus is attempting to do his best to win the trophy with two runners in the shape of Perce Rock and Fier Normand. At larger odds, I prefer the chances of Phillip Hobbs runner Or Bleu at around 16/1.

His jockey broke his duck yesterday winning the Fred Winter on Silk Affair, and whilst some punters may disregard this on the basis that he has won races in small fields over fences, it shouldn’t be ignored that he did win over hurdles in fields of a dozen or more and placed second as well from five runs under those conditions.Only had the requisite three runs over fences to qualify for his handicap mark so could still be on the upgrade and I think the top half of this field all come into the race looking exposed, therefore the value lies in the selection.

4.40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir

I have been convinced that a race at this years Festival was on the agenda for High Chimes all season given his propensity to peak at this time of year.

HIGH CHIMES(IRE)

Month of year:
April1st- February 28th: 3F543P6P (0-8)
March: 11(2-2)

He clearly comes to himself this time of year and on both occasions that he has won(was successful in last year’s renewal of this race) he has been rested for at least five weeks as well. He comes into this race on the back of being pulled up when well fancied for the Welsh National at Chepstow but it was the wrong time of year for him and he never figured in that. Now he will have come to himself, and with last year’s winning jockey James Tudor on board again, I expect a repeat success, even with the sharp rise in weight as he was twelve lengths clear jumping the last and idled up the run in when Openide chased him down.

If the Sherwoods Folly that jumped so enthusiastically in the Welsh National before stamina took its toll on him turns up here today, then he is a massive price to run a big race here. Last time out he was disappointing at Haydock but this more undulating track will suit and with top amatuer Richard Burton booked he is overpriced at 25/1 should he repeat his run two starts ago.

All 1pt e/w bets

Tranquil Sea/ Crescent Island
Galient
L’Antartique
Powerstation
Or Bleu
High Chimes/Sherwoods Folly

Best of luck with whatever you bet today

Steven