Cheltenham Gold Cup - Friday 13th March 2009

JP Liz

Can Kauto Star or Denman do it again?

premierstone

Kauto most likely, Denman no chance be suprised if he finishes the race tbh. Exotic Dancer e/w @10s for me is the value in the race also been the sentimental old fool I am I have backed War of Attrition @110 on betfair, drinks are on me if Mouse pulls off one of the training performances of the decade.

Bluetonic

premierstone wrote: »

Denman no chance be suprised if he finishes the race tbh.

You must be making a fortune laying him at crazy prices so? :rolleyes:

RichieLawlor

premierstone wrote: »

Kauto most likely, Denman no chance be suprised if he finishes the race tbh. Exotic Dancer e/w @10s for me is the value in the race also been the sentimental old fool I am I have backed War of Attrition @110 on betfair, drinks are on me if Mouse pulls off one of the training performances of the decade.

Stupid Post
How about a match bet, Denman vs WOA

premierstone

Bluetonic wrote: »

You must be making a fortune laying him at crazy prices so? :rolleyes:

Well yes actually Ive laid him at 3s. 4s and 5s and then backed him at 8s

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Stupid Post
How about a match bet, Denman vs WOA

Richie you have never contributed one piece of valuable analysis on this forum every post you have posted has been an attack on another poster so quite frankly no I wouldnt waste my time on you and tour sh*te talk, and where did I say WOA would be anywhere near winning - see you back him at 110 then lay him at 33 do you get it now :rolleyes:

thewools

Last year I got it very much wrong - I laid denman and back Kauto Star rather heavily for both... :mad:

Everything was going very well last year until that race but was still up a few hundred - did alot of place betting on Betfair so may do the same again this year!

Not sure if I will touch the gold cup this year - not fully confinced that Kauto can do it after last years poor performance... will see how things go before the race though!!

Morgans

I too think Denman will struggle to finish. Still not sure we will see him on Friday. I hope I am wrong, but Neptune Collonges is the most solid option at the prices. IMO

Whyno

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Stupid Post
How about a match bet, Denman vs WOA

I want in on this...Stupid post is an understatment

Whyno

What price you guys goin to give on Denman finishing the race....He may or may not be the tank he once was but even half that great tank will beat the hasbeens we`re sending over.
He`ll finish the race and will be in the first 5.
Kauto, neptune, exotic and madison wit denman will be the first five home....
If der was any inkling that denman may well be banjaxed he`d have been retired after his last race...FACT

premierstone

Whyno wrote: »

What price you guys goin to give on Denman finishing the race....He may or may not be the tank he once was but even half that great tank will beat the hasbeens we`re sending over.
He`ll finish the race and will be in the first 5.
Kauto, neptune, exotic and madison wit denman will be the first five home....
If der was any inkling that denman may well be banjaxed he`d have been retired after his last race...FACT

Up to you to offer me the price so, seen that Denman is 7/1 and War of Atrittion is 40/1 I would be expecting a nice price

Madison du Berlais's record at the course is soo bad btw I will definitely be laying him for a place

RichieLawlor

premierstone wrote: »

Well yes actually Ive laid him at 3s. 4s and 5s and then backed him at 8s



Richie you have never contributed one piece of valuable analysis on this forum every post you have posted has been an attack on another poster so quite frankly no I wouldnt waste my time on you and tour sh*te talk, and where did I say WOA would be anywhere near winning - see you back him at 110 then lay him at 33 do you get it now :rolleyes:

I have to attack most of the posts cause you all post such retarded tripe, its like a special horse racing forum where only the clueless get to post

premierstone

Oh poor Richie did i upset you Ok so Ritchie your sooo clever i'll set you a challenge pick your race at the festival and give us a horse by horse preview of the race and we'll see how clever you are or are you just all sly digs and cheap shots and someone who has never posted anything substantial or worthwhile on this forum as i suspect?

And if the lack of knowledge as you say is so rampant on here why do you feel the need to post here I for one would be sheding no tears if you stayed over on the poker forum wher this type of sniping posting seems par for the course.

RichieLawlor

premierstone wrote: »

Oh poor Richie did i upset you Ok so Ritchie your sooo clever i'll set you a challenge pick your race at the festival and give us a horse by horse preview of the race

we have a saying over on the poker forum 'dont educate the idiots', i think this applies here

NewApproach

premierstone wrote: »

Kauto most likely,

premierstone wrote: »

Madison du Berlais's record at the course is soo bad btw I will definitely be laying him for a place

And Kauto's is any better?

premierstone

RichieLawlor wrote: »

we have a saying over on the poker forum 'dont educate the idiots', i think this applies here

So i'll take that as a refusal on the challenge then?? Stick to the Poker, although Iv seen you play on ipoker and you aint too hot at that either tbh :rolleyes:

RichieLawlor

premierstone wrote: »

Madison du Berlais's record at the course is soo bad btw I will definitely be laying him for a place

NewApproach wrote: »

And Kauto's is any better?

Kauto Star has ran at Cheltenham 3 times, fallen in a CC, won a Gold Cup and being 2nd in the best Gold cup of the last 5/10 years.

FFS This is the reason i get so angry, f***** stupidness like this

Whyno

premierstone wrote: »

Oh poor Richie did i upset you Ok so Ritchie your sooo clever i'll set you a challenge pick your race at the festival and give us a horse by horse preview of the race and we'll see how clever you are or are you just all sly digs and cheap shots and someone who has never posted anything substantial or worthwhile on this forum as i suspect?

And if the lack of knowledge as you say is so rampant on here why do you feel the need to post here I for one would be sheding no tears if you fcuked off and stayed over on the poker forum wher this type of sniping posting seems par for the course.

In fairness theres no challenge to this...Why dont ya give him a race in Portman Park.....

RichieLawlor

premierstone wrote: »

So i'll take that as a refusal on the challenge then?? Stick to the Poker, although Iv seen you play on ipoker and you aint too hot at that either tbh :rolleyes:

Lets have a challenge, me vs you cheltenham tipster comp, loser leaves boards horse racing, how about it

premierstone

NewApproach wrote: »

And Kauto's is any better?

Kauto has already won a gold cup and been runner up in another Madisons record is 0 from 5 :eek:and not at the level Kauto has been running in, while I'll give you the fact its not he's ideal course and he's not at he's best there as he is say at Kempton he's still way ahead of anything Madison has ever or will ever produce.

NewApproach

premierstone wrote: »

Kauto has already won a gold cup and been runner up in another Madisons record is 0 from 5 :eek:and not at the level Kauto has been running in, while I'll give you the fact its not he's ideal course and he's not at he's best there as he is say at Kempton he's still way ahead of anything Madison has ever or will ever produce.

Kauto's form overall is far ahead of Madison du Berlais' though. He won his gold cup beating Turpin Green by 4 1/2 lengths, and was poor in last years gold cup, almost beaten for second by a 25/1 shot who was used as a pacemaker for much of the way.

As for Madison, while he's never won at the track he has run some nice races, indeed I just looked there and his RPR's don' seem to be any worse around Cheltenham, indeed early on in his career some of his highest RPR's (for all that they're worth) where recorded around Cheltenham. I'll concede that this may have been because the quality of the race was higher, but like I said it was only a quick glance.

I have always felt Kauto is at least a stone worse around cheltenham, and Im gonna stick by that thinking until I see something to convince me otherwise.

NewApproach

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Kauto Star has ran at Cheltenham 3 times, fallen in a CC, won a Gold Cup and being 2nd in the best Gold cup of the last 5/10 years.

FFS This is the reason i get so angry, f***** stupidness like this

See my post ^^^^

Whyno

Neptune Collonges aint no slouch and yeah it may well have been the case kauto struglled to beat him but look at it like this:
Neptune collonges was a fresher horse
They had already ran the balls outta kauto prior to the gold cup which is why he ran flat
and finally They couldve sawed off denmans legs that day and he`d have still won such was his performance.

Everyone says Kauto runs bad at cheltenham but the form is in the book. We`ll see a fresher Kauto regaining his crown wit another Grade A perfomance next friday....For anyone that wants humble pie i`ll serve it then

NewApproach

Whyno wrote: »

Neptune Collonges aint no slouch and yeah it may well have been the case kauto struglled to beat him but look at it like this:
Neptune collonges was a fresher horse
They had already ran the balls outta kauto prior to the gold cup which is why he ran flat
and finally They couldve sawed off denmans legs that day and he`d have still won such was his performance.

Everyone says Kauto runs bad at cheltenham but the form is in the book. We`ll see a fresher Kauto regaining his crown wit another Grade A perfomance next friday....For anyone that wants humble pie i`ll serve it then

Fair enough, All I'm doing is trying to find negatives against short priced favourites. I mean if we only ever focus on the positives it's a short road to the poor house!

Whyno

Not denying the fact of that mate but the only short price fav in chel that holes could possibly be picked in is Binocular.
The rest of the short price favs have the form in the book and been der done that or almost done it if ya catch my drift....

Hobart

RichieLawlor banned for a week for trolling. The rest of ye, cool down.

mdwexford

Im the biggest Kauto Star fan aroud but NA makes a fair-ish point, Kauto probably isnt at his best around Cheltenham, staying isnt his forte either, speed is, its not his ideal track, this is a fact.

I still think he will win but a peak form Denman will be a big danger, nothing else will imo.

NewApproach

mdwexford wrote: »

I still think he will win but a peak form Denman will be a big danger, nothing else will imo.

Not Neptune Collonges? Beaten a short head in the race last year by Kauto, when much use was made of him in the early/middle stages of the race, dropped back to allow Denman through, and stayed on well from 3 out.

mdwexford

NewApproach wrote: »

Not Neptune Collonges? Beaten a short head in the race last year by Kauto, when much use was made of him in the early/middle stages of the race, dropped back to allow Denman through, and stayed on well from 3 out.

My personal theory is Kauto Star ran at least 5lbs below form last year, i think he ran flat and jumped badly, if NC couldnt finish ahead of him last year i dont think he can this year when hopefully KS will be a much fresher horse and do himself justice.

bit of a bogey

Hobart wrote: »

RichieLawlor banned for a week for trolling. The rest of ye, cool down.

Tis a bit harsh? I was looking forward to a little tipping comp between richie and premierstone? Let richie step up instead of screening him out!!!

Degag

Has denman been performing badly of late? I thought he was neck and neck with kauto up to a few weeks ago...

Whyno

Read Nicholls spot in the RP...Would be delighted if denman finishes in first 4....Says it all really...He is showing some of his old spark though which bodes well....Kauto ran flat last year which had to be due to tiredness and also was forced to go faster over the trip than eve before.
There is no issue wit staying.He stays the trip.Has won over it and beat NC who is an out and out stayer and was only beaten 3 lenghts or so by denman.
I`m a big Kauto fan and he is all bout speed and raw agility. I`m in no doubt he has no stamina issues. His one problem is that he produces so many high quality performances he has to take so much outtqa him. This is why he has ran so little this year. Nicholls has trained him similar to the way Henrietta trained Best Mate.
Role on friday and Kauto to bing the house down with a 6 length romp.....

cson

Er, he was beaten out the gate by Madison Du Berlais a few weeks ago

Having said that, I think he'll come on for that and 7/1 is an insult to him. Don't get me wrong, I'm a big KS fan and backed him last year in the GC but I'm warming to Denman at that price. I'm confident he'll be in the first 3 home.

kingshankly

youd want a hole in your head to back denman.
watching last years race if neptune has improved he should put it up to kauto star.barbershop is the one for me needs to find plenty with denman but he is improving while denman has regressed

cson

I'm astounded how someone can write off the reigning Gold Cup Champion, in a performance which was possibly the most impressive in living memory on the basis of one run. To be perfectly honest, posts like that annoy me and would imply you have no idea about racing at all.

All I'll say is, Denman is a big price at 7/1.

NewApproach

cson wrote: »

I'm astounded how someone can write off the reigning Gold Cup Champion, in a performance which was possibly the most impressive in living memory on the basis of one run. To be perfectly honest, posts like that annoy me and would imply you have no idea about racing at all.

All I'll say is, Denman is a big price at 7/1.

Its not just the fact he has had one bad run, but you have to ask why he has only had one run?

Reason being he has had well documented heart problem early on in the year.

Yeah, normally it would be silly to write a horse off after one run, but couple that with his problems earlier on in the season, and very negative vibes from the stable means its fair enough that he has a large ? by his name now in the racecard... (not literally ;-))

cson

Granted the health issue is a big one but I do feel if the horse was gone badly wrong he wouldn't be declared to run on Friday.

NewApproach

cson wrote: »

Granted the health issue is a big one but I do feel if the horse was gone badly wrong he wouldn't be declared to run on Friday.

No one is saying he has gone badly wrong, but unless the horse is going to be retired (daft imo, he is fit and healthy), he has to run somewhere.

Even if he isn't as good a horse as he was last year (not saying thats the case), he is still rated 182, so where else can he run apart from this race?

corny

I think most of you are missing a trick when analysing Denman. He's notoriously lazy at home and Nicholls hasn't a clue what he'll produce on the day most times. I remember before his Hennessy win Nicholls basically said he needs the run badly lads don't back him(he won by 11 lengths in what was a performance as good as his Gold Cup run IMO).

It could just be that he was grossly unfit last time out with PN thinking he was way further forward than he actually was. Naturally enough he'd very disappointed as a result. If he was just unfit, that run will leave him bang on for Cheltenham.

I know one thing, if every horse on the day pulls out their best, Denman will win! Is Denman capable of producing his best? I don't think even Paul Nicholls himself can truly say he can't, so is it really prudent to dismiss a horse who's been there, done that? I'm not convinced. I'll be more than happy to take Denman at 10's(on the day EVERYONE will back KS and everything else will be value as a result just before the off)

aya14

Imo Kauto Star will take some beating this year Nicholls says the horse goes so much better this time of year when fresh and he's been lightly raced in the build up.

If the ground is good/good to soft come friday I think Barbers Shop is too big at 16's and is certainly worth a bet each way.

Whyno

cson wrote: »

Er, he was beaten out the gate by Madison Du Berlais a few weeks ago

Having said that, I think he'll come on for that and 7/1 is an insult to him. Don't get me wrong, I'm a big KS fan and backed him last year in the GC but I'm warming to Denman at that price. I'm confident he'll be in the first 3 home.

Beaten out the gate by a fit hose on a track that wouldnt suit him after a long layoff due to his heart problems.I wouldnt read into this at all.I laid denman in his comeback for my balls but wont next friday.
Its well documented hes a hard horse to assess at home due to the fact he cant work with anythin as he wants to beat everythin he runs against.
Hopefully we see the real denman or a good portion of the old one would suffice and he`ll be well in the picture and i`ve no doubt he`ll turn the tables on MDB at least....
I`m still on Kauto Though:D

JP Liz

War Of Attrition is out

Barbers Shop looks like a good bet each way

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

corny

ziggy wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Just a couple of points. Denman ran 6m 47.80s last year on what was generally considered quite soft ground. The official going was Good to Soft but it was pretty dead. Kauto's winning time yesterday was 6m 44.95s (2.85s quicker) on ground described as Good to Soft, Good in places (a lot of places me thinks). A direct comparison on times alone would lead you to believe had Denman produced last years performance on the quicker ground yesterday he'd have won! Denman can do better. To suggest that was his best when his very participation was in doubt a week ago would be foolish.

I think the key to this or any Gold Cup between the 2 is the manner in which the race is run. I mean he stays fine in those type of races we knew that from 07 anyway. Does he stay when Denman tries to run the b****x out of him? You have to get Kauto Star chasing a searching pace becuase if you don't he'll leave you for dead in the closing stages. Denman is the only proven horse to take Kauto Star out of this comfort zone and have him legless on the line. He was in the same position he was passing the stands last year, one behind Neptune Collonges. Big difference last year was he passed him and aggressively took the race by the scruff. He just wasn't able for that yesterday with an interrupted prep. In the words of Mick Fitzgerald no horse could have gone with him and seen out the trip better last year. A return to those tactics next year and Kauto Star won't be scooting up the run in as a confirmed stayer and the superior horse in my view. Take nothing from the winner though he's a fabulous horse and a worthy record breaker, he's just not as good as the Denman:)

Bluetonic

corny wrote: »

I think the key to this or any Gold Cup between the 2 is the manner in which the race is run.

:rolleyes: insert any race.

Morgans

corny wrote: »

Just a couple of points. Denman ran 6m 47.80s last year on what was generally considered quite soft ground. The official going was Good to Soft but it was pretty dead. Kauto's winning time yesterday was 6m 44.95s (2.85s quicker) on ground described as Good to Soft, Good in places (a lot of places me thinks). A direct comparison on times alone would lead you to believe had Denman produced last years performance on the quicker ground yesterday he'd have won! Denman can do better. To suggest that was his best when his very participation was in doubt a week ago would be foolish.

I think the key to this or any Gold Cup between the 2 is the manner in which the race is run. I mean he stays fine in those type of races we knew that from 07 anyway. Does he stay when Denman tries to run the b****x out of him? You have to get Kauto Star chasing a searching pace becuase if you don't he'll leave you for dead in the closing stages. Denman is the only proven horse to take Kauto Star out of this comfort zone and have him legless on the line. He was in the same position he was passing the stands last year, one behind Neptune Collonges. Big difference last year was he passed him and aggressively took the race by the scruff. He just wasn't able for that yesterday with an interrupted prep. In the words of Mick Fitzgerald no horse could have gone with him and seen out the trip better last year. A return to those tactics next year and Kauto Star won't be scooting up the run in as a confirmed stayer and the superior horse in my view. Take nothing from the winner though he's a fabulous horse and a worthy record breaker, he's just not as good as the Denman:)

Couple of things.

Kauto Star has been taken out of his comfort zone at Haydock this year and previously by Monet's Garden at Aintree - where Ruby was about to pull him up before he began to stay on.

Second, and this is something that Denman Fans seem to completely overlook. Denman didnt set out from the gun last year and gallop all horses into the ground. Neptune Collonges, in a manner similar to yesterday, went out and led the field for the most of the first circuit. Most Kauto Star fans and those who watch racing more than once a week were unhappy with the way Kauto Star was jumping - was never taking Ruby into the race and never met one fence they way he did yesterday. Denman took the race up in the straight last year and made sure that Neptune Collonges didnt get a breather and went from there. Kauto Star's class got him close to winning at Aintree and at Haydock, when he gave similar performances, and Denman's performance on the second circuit ensure Kauto never got a sniff, even as he battled on. However, Kauto Star was beaten and not travelling or jumping well before Denman took up the field.

I was someone who feared that Denman wouldnt perform yesterday. Owner backing Neptune Collonges suggested that he wasnt overly confident himself. I think it was one of the best training performances that I have seen to get him back in such shape to run such a race, and uptmost credit must go to the horse for battling on gamely up the straight. Had he even faded from the turn in back into fifth it would still have been a fantastic credit to Nicholls, to get him in such shape that he was able to keep Exotic and Neptune behind him is astounding.

It was a shame that they never met when both flying. Those who think that Kauto Star was in the same form yesterday as he was 12 months previous are looking at a different sport to me.

corny

Bluetonic wrote: »

:rolleyes: insert any race.

You can be near enough certain they will never meet outside of the GC but i agree 'any race' is probably right.

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

Morgans

Also, Denman was absolutely legless coming up the hill last year. Something that all connections have admitted in the past month, as they were wondering if that hard race left its mark. Stamina isnt Kauto Star's problem. I actually thought he had a tiny squeak of winning last years gold cup between the last two. He needed a flyer at the last to land running, Ruby went for it and ended up in the middle of the fence. Not only does he stay 3m3f of Cheltenham, I think he could stay much longer when on form. Denman is a huge horse with huge ability but meeting Kauto Star on form he would need to come up the hill better than last year to win, for me.

cson

I would love to see the two of them, both in form, go hammer and tongs at it up the hill next year.

corny

ziggy wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Absolutely agree. I'm not one of Kauto doesn't stay around Cheltenham brigade, at least not anymore anyway:o. Even if Denman was fully fit and at his best in the race the only way he's going to win is if he takes it up like last year. Letting Neptune lead for 3 quarters of the race Kauto Star will leave every horse including Denman for dead in the straight. I'd like to see Kauto quicken up and pass Denman when Denman is blazing a trail out in front from halfway thats all.

mdwexford

mdwexford wrote: »

Im the biggest Kauto Star fan aroud but NA makes a fair-ish point, Kauto probably isnt at his best around Cheltenham, staying isnt his forte either, speed is, its not his ideal track, this is a fact.

I still think he will win but a peak form Denman will be a big danger, nothing else will imo.

mdwexford wrote: »

My personal theory is Kauto Star ran at least 5lbs below form last year, i think he ran flat and jumped badly, if NC couldnt finish ahead of him last year i dont think he can this year when hopefully KS will be a much fresher horse and do himself justice.

Hmmm