ALL WEATHER DRAW BIAS

jimjackson

ALL WEATHER PREVIEW

HOW TO MAKE IT PAY

1.Treat Southwell form in isolation.
Remember that Southwell form is the only all weather track that has a Fibresand surface and that it rides very differently to the Polytrack used at the other five all weather tracks in Britain and Ireland.
Be wary of in form horses who are switching from Fibresand to Polytrack or vice versa,as they not be able to transfer their form.

2.Avoid debutants at Southwell.
Fibresand is a deeper surface with more kickback than Polytrack,which makes Southwell a hostile environment for in experienced horses,and it's usually worth avoiding debutantes at the track. Since 2000,the strike rate of juvenile newcomers at Southwell is 5.5 per cent which is inferior to the 6.2 per cent at the Polytrack venues.

3.Follow Haafhd's progeny on Polytrack.
When assessing the chances of experienced horses,it's always worth taking a look at their breeding,as the progeny of certain sires seem to take to Polytrack or Fibresand better than others.
It's still early days for Polytrack,but one sire who is achieving remarkable results with his first crop on the surface is Haafhd. The record of his progeny on Polytrack in Britain and Ireland stands at 11 winners from 29 runners.

4.Follow Pivotal and Captain Rio's offspring at Southwell
Pivotal used to be the top sire to follow at Southwell,but his blossoming stud career means that these days fewer of his offspring are handled by trainers who regularly send runners to the track. However,this season there will be plenty of trainers who like having runners at Southwell with Captain Rio's progeny among their ranks,and he is rapidly becoming the new king of the Fibresand sires. The record of Captain Rio's progeny at the track is ten winners from 40 runners ( 25 per cent,£47.38 profit to a £1 level stake ).

5.Importance of speed
Racing on synthetic surfaces places an emphasis on speed,whether the races are staged over 5f or 2m.It's absolutely essential that you are able to travel well on the all weather.

6.Latch on to the top apprentices.
The all weather has been a fertile ground for some of the brighter young apprentices to showcase their talents,and promising riders who are good value for their claims are always in demand.
The low grade handicaps that make up a seizable chunk of the racing are often loaded with exposed and closely matched horses,so booking a good apprentice can make a massive difference.
The key is to catch these hot apprentices early. This is highlighted by the fact Kirsty Milczarek's all weather record from the start of September 2007 to the end of March 2008 was 49 winners from 268 rides ( 18.3 per cent strike rate ) and that £10 on each of these rides would have resulted in a £500 profit. The two to follow this season could be Frederick Tylicki and Andrea Atzeni.

7.Look out for horses who are likely to get soft leads in small fields.
Pace is one of the most important factors in all weather racing,so a good angle is to find horses who may get soft leads in small fields.

8.Make a note of free going sorts who run well in tactical middle distance/staying races.
Horses rarely win when they erode vital energy reserves by pulling to hard in the early stages,so horses who race keenly but still manage to finish in the first third of the field are definitely worth putting into the memory bank.

9.Follow Gary Moore.
Record in the last 5 seasons

Course w-r (%) p/l
Great Lieghs 7-23 (30) +20.25
Kempton 40-244 (16) + 4.34
Lingfield 89-641 (14) + 21.87
Wolves 18-83 (22) + 27.74
Southwell 10-52 (19) - 4.34

Gary Moore has sent out more than 1,000 runners on the all weather in the last five seasons,so it's remarkable that you could have made a profit by backing his horses at each of the four Polytrack courses,while at Southwell you would have suffered only a small level stakes loss of £4.34.

10.Follow George Baker.
George Baker is the best judge of pace on the British all weather tracks.he is an artist when at the top of his game,so look out for him on all the Polytrack courses but particularly at Lingfield,where his profit/loss figure in the last five seasons is + £112.58.

11.Keep William Jarvis – trained runners having first starts in all weather handicaps staged over 1m or shorter onside.
Look out for his runners when he pitches them into an all weather handicap for the first time. Jarvis's record with all weather handicap debutants in races staged at 1m or shorter is eight winners from 56 winners ( 14 per cent strike rate ),and they usually start at decent prices,highlighted by the huge profit – loss figure of £62.50 to a £1 level stake.

12.Look out for rejuvenated Godolphin cast-offs.
Capricorn Run and Atlantic Story were two of the top horses on the all weather last season,Capricorn Run won five times for Alan McCabe while Atlantic Story matched that total for Mick Easterby.
The two things that Capricorn Run and Atlantic Story have in common is that they have American pedigrees,suggesting that they would appreciate a consistent surface,and they started their careers racing for Godolphin but,having failed to make the grade,were bought cheaply at the Horses in Training Sales.
It's likely that Polytrack played a pivotal role in their rejuvenation,as it's such a forgiving surface that gives horses who may have been plagued by physical problems in the past the confidence to let themselves down on it.

13.Follow Pat Cosgrave especially at Southwell
It's always good to latch onto a jockey whose career is on an upward curve,and Pat Cosgrave enjoyed his finest hour in August when steering Borderlescott to victory in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes at Newmarket.
Cosgrave was champion apprentice in Ireland in 2003,and the fact that he has ridden 39 times for Luca Cumani in 2008 is an indication that his stock is rising in Britain.
Having put in the hard yards on the all weather in recent seasons,he has built up a broad base of contacts that should keep the winners flowing during the winter. It's testament to Cosgraves consistency that he's been able to operate at a strike rate of 27% at Southwell in 2008,and following him blind at the venue would have yielded a level stake profit of £34.16.

14.Expect in running carnage at Lingfield.
The final furlong at Lingfield has been described by my colleague Matt Williams,who knows a lot more about in running betting than me,as the longest furlong in racing. The tracks configuration,with it's tight bends and short home straight lends itself to exciting racing and it's common to see the entire field covered by only a few lengths on the final bend.
It's equally common to see the lead change hand several times inside the final furlong,so plenty of shorties get chinned in running,as often it's those that are played late who gain the upper hand.

15.Give greater respect to the form of claimers and sellers.
All weather claimers are notoriously poor fare,but in the current economic climate where disappointing results are being achieved at the sales,it's possible that more trainers may look to claimers and sellers as a way of achieving a fair price for horses they wish to pass on.
Richard Hannon's shrewd handling of filly Rebecca De Winter illustrates this point.
Hannon put the 86 rated two year old into Tattersalls Horses in Training sale at Newmarket on October 28th,but she failed to fetch the money he was looking for so he bought her in for 6,500 gns.
He entered her in a Lingfield claimer on Thursday with a price tag of only £10,000,which meant she was able to run off 8st 6lb and according to Racing Post Ratings was 5lb clear of her highest rated rival. She took advantage of what looked like a penalty kick with a stylish success under Richard Hughes to scoop the prize money of £2,279 for Hannon,and she was claimed,so the trainer walked away with a tidy profit.

16.The importance of race position and the draw.
The draw can be important at all the all weather tracks,although it should always be considered in tandem with horse's running styles.
Obviously,if a front runner is parked out wide it's a potential negative,but if a hold up horse has an outside berth it probably wont make much difference to his chance. So with horses who like to race prominently,look for low draws at Lingfield,Southwell,Wolverhampton,Great Lieghs and Dundalk,while at the right handed Kempton a high draw helps horses with early speed take a handy pitch.

17.Look for horses who hold a definite class edge in their division.
It's important to remember that the size of the population of horse who race on the all weather over the winter is relatively small, and in the classier races the same horses keep bumping into each other. So when a progressive horse who is a class above his rivals emerges,he does very well.
A recent example is Areyoutalkingtome. The competion couldn't live with him over sprint distances on the all weather two seasons ago. He won six races in a row at Lingfield between 5f and 7f from October 2006 to February 2007,and the only time he was beaten on the all weather during that period was when he failed to stay 1m1/2f at Wolverhampton.

18.Follow Neil Callan.
Neil Callan has great stats in close finishes on the all weather. He rarely gets horses beat by going to fast,so when he is up on the front end,the front runners are probably running at a pace that they are comfortable with.

19.Respect Italian raiders.
Italy has all weather racing at Capanelle and several Italian trainers have made successful raids on all weather races in Britain. The most recent was Salvatore Santella whose Il Grande Maurizio won a handicap off 95 at 16/1 last month at Kempton.

20.Find the fastest horse in Southwell sprints.
It may sound obvious to find the fastest horse in a sprint,but Southwell sprints are invariably dominated by those who possess early speed,as it's very difficult to play catch up in Fibresand sprints.




Some of these pointers are superb and all are totally relevant. Following the jocks mentioned is very important especially George baker as he really is the master at this game.

On The draw.... all the tracks have there pros and cons but it is important to have a jockey with brain that understands how to take advantage of a good draw.

A few pointers note about draw and conditions:

All tracks....try and avoid betting in the first 2 races! Going is described as Standard or sometimes fast but there are about 5 levels of standard!!!!

Lingfield for example has recently seen the Front runners being done by the finishers late on, however the sudden drop in temperature has seen track conditions change in favour of the front runner with the right fractions. So whilst it is cold you want low draws in anything under a mile, and look for a horse that like to make or be up with the pace (important at many of the tracks)

Southwell..... Low draws and up with the pace. As the post says, how often do you see a horse swoop later and make up 10 lengths in the last 2 furlongs....never! 5 Furlong and a low draw is an absolute must and for place potters that do perms stick the 1 draw in regardless of the horses form, and take faves on no matter how short with double digit draws.

Kempton.... Only right handed track, so we want high numbers here and in the sprints a front runner would be handy too drawn high. But also look for horses that travel well that finish strongly as we see many come from way off the pace here to win, and our man George Baker does it better than anyone. For in running players, keep an eye on Hayley Turner on hold up horses racing on the outer course here and note the progression she often makes when they reach the intersection, often you will see horses come from last to lead in half a furlong by dashing up the rail, now often they don't hang on but in running you can trade in at say 15-20 and out seconds later at 2s.


Wolves.... generally low draws an advantage, but also look for jockeys that have good + figures on the £ at the track as the ones with the - £ all try and win down the rail....watch the finishers, they come down the middle of the track


Great Leighs..... again check the stats as some jocks much better here than others as it seems to pay to come down the middle in the straight as per Wolves (Dettori aint worked this out yet lol)
5/6F Low draw almost essential...note how many races the 2 drawn widest are non runners! The Mile has a negative against the middle draws so look for a pace horse drawn high or low not just low as the ATR idiots go on about, and again pace very important here as more often than not races are won from the front or thos right up with the pace.

Look at times...very important
Look at times v distance as well. I could not believe I got to back Ivory Silk last time out at 24s on Betfair, A reproduction of his last 6F run over 5F would see him win from the front and win well.... Result 1st 6/1 in a new track record

Finally just look.. you can study the form book all day long but there is no substitute for watching a race over and over again. Watch a 5 furlong sprint 20 times and watch each indiviual runner for the whole race then note the non triers, the hard luck stories and the utter dogs and bring this info into the equation for their next runs....anyone got any draw bias' DUNDALK????

Tubberadora

A little gem I have found is to watch for George Baker riding under 9st2lb. His level stakes on this would be massively in profit by my reckoning.

kingshankly

terrific post jim. would definatly agree with pivotals and captain rios at southwell there record is terrific on the deeper surface.
i know it is hard to win from the front at lingfield but if a horse gets a easy uncontested lead he will be hard to pass.another is to avoid jamie spencer on short price favourites he will have you in the poor house and shane kelly is not too far behind him.
low draw at wolverhampton in sprints i think stall 2 has a terrific record.
i will be referring back to your post regularly jim for advice

jimjackson

thanks kings,another thing about southwell watch for nh trainers putting their horses in for warm up.the likes of haslam- berry always get the big price winners because of their stamina

mike65

Bump.

smartaform

excellent post Jim.

One thing i have found though is a horse going from Southwell to Wolverhampton generally goes well........ however may have only been last season!