Stock prices / property prices

petergdub

I must admit I had been tempted into looking at the property market by some serious reductions in asking prices. (35%)
That was until yesterday when I saw the S&P drop another 4-5%.
Difficult to believe but we're now back at 1997 stock market prices.

- Will the housing market go the same way ?
(We're nowhere near 1997 prices yet)

The scariest thing is there seems to be no end in sight to the stock price meltdown.
What will the trigger be ?
My instinct is that unfortunately mortgage defaults take quite a bit of time to shake out so maybe a year more is realistic.
Unfortunately there now appears to be a feedback mechanism going on - more defaults -> lower share prices -> layoffs -> more defaults

Even scarier is I am an optimist by nature.

Idu

petergdub wrote: »

Difficult to believe but we're now back at 1997 stock market prices

Not in Europe we're not - back closer to 2003's levels.

Most property developers are still living in false optimism that the housing market will pick up so they're not being realistic in their valuations yet

woodseb

Idu wrote: »

Not in Europe we're not - back closer to 2003's levels.

.........at 1996 levels now

Idu

Maybe in Ireland. I was talking about the DAX and EuroStoxx. I never think of the ISEQ

Western_sean

I must admit I had been tempted into looking at the property market by some serious reductions in asking prices. (35%)
That was until yesterday when I saw the S&P drop another 4-5%.
Difficult to believe but we're now back at 1997 stock market prices.

- Will the housing market go the same way ?
(We're nowhere near 1997 prices yet)

I can't see anything to stimulate demand for housing at least in Ireland for the near term. It seems to me the the market is oversupplied in all areas and will struggle to reach an equilibrium for 4/5 years given the volume of vacant housing units at present.

irish_bob

petergdub wrote: »

I must admit I had been tempted into looking at the property market by some serious reductions in asking prices. (35%)
That was until yesterday when I saw the S&P drop another 4-5%.
Difficult to believe but we're now back at 1997 stock market prices.

- Will the housing market go the same way ?
(We're nowhere near 1997 prices yet)

The scariest thing is there seems to be no end in sight to the stock price meltdown.
What will the trigger be ?
My instinct is that unfortunately mortgage defaults take quite a bit of time to shake out so maybe a year more is realistic.
Unfortunately there now appears to be a feedback mechanism going on - more defaults -> lower share prices -> layoffs -> more defaults

Even scarier is I am an optimist by nature.

irish people have an almost unique obsession with property so it will always be slower to come down to its real value compared to shares which were never of that much interest to the average irish person , compared to the usa , a small percentage of irish people own shares