Festival Handicaps

Colonel Sanders

Time for a thread on my favourite subject, the grade 1's are obviously great races but I always get far more satisfaction backing a handicap winner at double figure odds (altho single figure winners are OK too )

The weights are out now and I must say a lot of the races look ultra competitive this year. Some sneaky ones in a lot of the races but might struggle to even get a run. I've spotted a few in (mostly in the chases, rarely bet on handicap hurdles)

According to John: Only entry in the William Hill. Could be very well handicapped off 134 looking at the form of his novice year. Ran a respectable comeback race at Sandown last time out. 134 may look a lenient mark but as a result he may well struggle to get in!! Lord Charles of Limerick has Cailin Alainn entered and he is one trainer whose runners deserve the utmost respect at the festival, seems to have a massive punt once a year over there. However she has fallen on her last 2 visits to the track but could be well handicapped if running up to her novice form.

2 irish horses look very attractive in the Jewson. Tranquill Sea leaps off the page off 139. A very classy novice hurdler, winning a grade 1 and looked a deeply promising novice chaser at the beginning of the year. However has flopped the last twice and I know for a fact he was very well fancied behind Cooldine last time out so there's a lot to forgive.

The other one I like is Siegemaster off 137. A decent novice hurdler last year and ran a very respectable race in the 3 mile novice hurdle last year. Always had the scope to make a better chaser and has made a decent transition to fences. Has won twice and the form of both wins looks pretty decent. Also went off odds on to beat Trafford Lad in November.

The marks allotted to these 2 look lenient while Tony Martins runners seem to have been handicapped on trainer reputation rather than form. Naiad Du Missalot has been blatantly jobbed for this all year but the handicapper has thrown a spanner in the works and he's been given a harsh mark on his actual form. Won the coral cup last year off 130 and doesn't look as scopey as some others who've gone chasing this year. It also wouldn't surprise me if one of the top weights ran well if given the chance here (especially Massini's Maguire)

Next is my favourite rogue, Dom D'Orgeval in the pertemps final. I thought he could win a handicap chase off his current mark but ran in a qualifier during the week. Only finished 5th beaten a long way but these races are often a case of spot the trier. Allotted a mark of 130 which is eyecatching considering he was 3rd in the coral cup in 06 off 144 and finished that season rated 156. Has been out off form since running in denman's RSA chase tho. 33/1 but not with those going NRNB. Worth 500/15 each way if you can get it NRNB

A race I must have a closer look at is the new conditional rider's hurdle. David Pipe is surely to have a few laid out for this and he stated he will probably run Gaspara off top weight. Possibly something like Big Eared Fran could be 'the one'

mr.jingle

Simarian off 137 in the fred winter is good bet i think i dont think he's good enough for the triumph and is the only C&D winner in the race at 25s