The great (economic) famine

baldieman

While it’s unlikely this economic crisis will actually leave us hungry, the scale of the events unfolding, may someday be compared to the famine. This may seem over the top (and maybe it is and this will not come to pass) but what if?
Two years ago would anyone have believed the Irish banks could be in the crippled position that they’re in now. So where will we be in another two years? Time is the problem here, just as during the great famine. In 1845 The potato crop failed, It was catastrophe for the people involved, but yet few people starved to death that year. Most people had reserves to fall back on, but then it failed the next year and following two and the rest is history. That’s the thing about history, we tend to see events as a single event. But it’s a process of one day at a time slowly turning into weeks and months and changing events from day to day and probably not all days were progressively bad and there was probably hope that things would soon improve .
Now, I’m not expecting people to starve this time, but the similarity is the basic things people depended on then was food and shelter. While today we still depend on these basics we have moved a lot further in our expectations.
Examples:
Ready available medical care.
Free education for our children.
Social welfare way beyond basic food and shelter.
Bread and water in prisons long since gone. (I’ve heard figures of 100,000 eure p/a to keep a person in prison today)
I ‘m sure there’s much more, but the point I’m making is, our modern world is really only about 60 years old and our expectations of comfort and lifestyle and what the state owes us is dramatically greater than the first 20 - 30 years of the state, although we had education and health care, it was’nt much funded by the state.
As time goes by, employment shrinks, unemployment grows, general economic activity also contracts, the lack of taxes from property and new car sales etc... The government, who ever may be in power, could simply run out of funds to pay these huge costs.
There may be other alternatives, we could go begging to the EU, but they may have their own problems and if they were to bale us out, what would the cost be?
Uncertain times we live in??

AlekSmart

Baldieman,you post a very succinct opinion and one which I feel is very appropriate to where we now are,and more importantly,where we`re going.

The entire area of Expectations,particularly of the State is one which many do not really wish to investigate too deeply

Ready available medical care.
Free education for our children.
Social welfare way beyond basic food and shelter.
Bread and water in prisons long since gone. (I’ve heard figures of 100,000 eure p/a to keep a person in prison today)
I ‘m sure there’s much more, but the point I’m making is, our modern world is really only about 60 years old and our expectations of comfort and lifestyle and what the state owes us is dramatically greater than the first 20 - 30 years of the state, although we had education and health care, it was’nt much funded by the state.

It can surely be accepted that as of now Medical Care is NOT readily available to those unable to avail of private medical insurance.
Education,at ALL levels has not been "Free" for some years now.

The Social Welfare issue remains however a source of major potential problems as the sums cannot be ignored.

There is an inherent difficulty with any SW system that can for example tolerate (and fund) the following...

Two young people,each under 20 years of age.
One on basic Jobseekers Allowance the other on a FÀS scheme about to finish.
Both living with respective parents up until recent weeks when they decided to co-habitate.
Initial individual application for a Private Rented Accom Allowance was assessed and a sum of €34 was awarded.
Following "Advice" from an experienced sibling and confirmation from the local SW office the two individuals have decided to apply as a Couple.
Incredibly they now have a PRAA of €130 per week to subsidise their "Flight from the Family Nest"

I`m uncertain what effect the impending completion of the Fàs course will have,but I understand the Lad has been told immediate employment is highly unlikely and that he must ensure to keep "Up to Date" with the DFSA to maintain his "Credits".

From what I now gather this healthy young couple with no dependants as yet are reasonably comfortable with something approaching €400 in Joint weekly income from sources other than gainful employment.

Indeed having just spoken with another sibling,it appears that the couple are considering "trying for a baby"....

If even half of my informations and observations are correct and assuming that this scenario is replicated to some extent throughout the "System",can anybody attempt to explain how we (as in Ireland Inc) can continue to fund this type of Discretionary Social Welfare "Purchase"

It appears that the DSFA is now so overwhelemed by applications for allowances of every sort that only the most cursory checks are made on applicants bona fides.

I am concerned particularly that we have here two young people with little or no employment (or Contribution) history who are essentially welcomed into a career of claiming.

What is even more sobering is that both sets of Parents are fully supportive of their childrens actions to the point of recommending it to other`s in their locale.

I just cannot see how the State can ever pull us out of this nosedive without first having to impose a very solid Reality Check on a VAST number of it`s dependants ??

baldieman

AlekSmart wrote: »

It can surely be accepted that as of now Medical Care is NOT readily available to those unable to avail of private medical insurance.
Education,at ALL levels has not been "Free" for some years now.

The Social Welfare issue remains however a source of major potential problems as the sums cannot be ignored.

Alek, while some people do have trouble accessing public medical care, most people receive excellent and expensive public health care. I've personally experienced such with no vhi or medical card. also my elderly parents never have trouble accessing public health care. I know of far more people who have been well taken care of than left on trolley's.
Yet people complain, what will it be like when funds really become short?
As for education, it may not be free, but if we consider the real cost of putting a child through school and collage it would scare one. Also the amount of special needs cases.

I'm with you on the social welfare, I'm sure there are many such stories. Give people an advantage and they'll take it.

Ostrom

And timely, given Cowen's mention of the 'meitheal'

One of the legacies of consolidation rent regimes after the famine was communal labour, so who knows?