Non-Runner No-Bet - Cheltenham

Warper · 24-02-2009 4:27pm #1

See Bet365 are the first that have this - I really want to back Cousin Vinny especially for the Supreme - he is at 7-2 which isnt bad considering no-one knows which race he is going for.

Anyone know of any other bookies that have this as it is crucial at this stage.

corny · 24-02-2009 4:42pm

Get your money on now considering Mullins still hasn't decided where he's going.

Bluetonic · 24-02-2009 6:21pm

Warper wrote: »

See Bet365 are the first that have this - I really want to back Cousin Vinny especially for the Supreme - he is at 7-2 which isnt bad considering no-one knows which race he is going for.

He'll be a shorter now considering Hurricane Fly ain't going to Cheltenham. Surely Cousin Vinny is only going for one of two races so why not just do a ante post double on his two races, when he's not declared for one you'll have the single for the other let.

No run, no bet
February 20th, 2009 by Donn McClean

We are about to enter the golden era for Cheltenham ante post punters. Coral were the first to go non-runner-no-bet on the four championship races, the Gold Cup, the Champion Hurdle, the Champion Chase and the World Hurdle, on Wednesday. Bet365 followed on Thursday, only they went non-runner-no-bet on every race at the Festival, fair play to them. It looks like Blue Square are now offering the concession on the Champion Hurdle and the Gold Cup only. Others will follow, the trickle has begun. Just sit back, pay close attention, and wait for the avalanche.

When you hear about a bookmaker concession, your instinct is to tread warily, and rightly so. A 5% bonus for an all-correct super-Canadian, money back on all scorecast bets if Gary Neville scores with a header inside the last four minutes (maximum refund £14.32). You can have them. But not this one – this one we want.

I’m not sure how it all began. From memory, a couple of forward-thinking independents offered non-runner-no-bet on all multiples at Cheltenham a number of years back, maybe 10 or 12. Even that was highly attractive, you did a Yankee for the week and if one or two didn’t run, you had a couple of singles running for you at decent prices at worst. I remember doing a couple of soft-ground Yankees in the early days, my thinking being that, if the ground came up soft, the selections would go off at significantly shorter than they were at the time, if it came up good, they wouldn’t run. Invariably it came up good or even good to firm, and the horses either did not run or ran poorly. I have since tweaked that strategy slightly.

Actually, it doesn’t matter how it began. The fact is that it is in place, it is being offered by a handful of bookmakers already, it will almost certainly be offered by more in due course, and it is there to be exploited.

What it effectively means is that you can bet at ante post prices, avail of the inflated price that usually incorporates the risk factor of a non-runner, yet not suffer the frustration of losing your money if your horse doesn’t run. You have it both ways. If your horse doesn’t run you get your money back, but if other horses in the race don’t run, you are not subjected to a Rule 4 deduction.

One small drawback is that, when bookmakers begin to offer the non-runner-no-bet concession, they usually trim their odds. Take the current betting on the RSA Chase, for example. Bet365 are the only firm who are non-runner-no-bet on this race, and they are neither longest price nor joint longest price about any horse in the race. Not one. You have a choice in this instance. Do you back Cooldine at 9/2 non-runner-no-bet, or do you back him at 6/1 all-in? It’s a judgement call. At the moment, Cooldine is a definite intended runner, so I would be inclined to back him at 6/1 and take the risk that nothing untoward happens. It is not worth paying 25% of the odds for a guaranteed run in this instance in my book, not for an intended runner.

When other firms start to go non-runner-no-bet, however, there will be greater choice. You might be able to back Cooldine at 5/1 with a guaranteed run, or at 11/2, or even at 6/1.

There will be even more pronounced advantages, however, in the handicap races and in the conditions races when horses’ targets are uncertain or ground-dependent. Hurricane Fly, Imperial Commander, Mad Max, Mikael D’Haguenet, Whiteoak, Cousin Vinny, Carruthers, Massini’s Maguire, Catch Me, Don’t Push It, Torphichen, Cape Tribulation, Master Of Arts, and others. These are all horses that, if you are backing them, you want to be backing with a run.

It’s almost time to get busy.

mdwexford · 25-02-2009 1:53am

Bruce Betting are also NRNB now.

Most of the value is gone now though although Cooldine for the Sunalliance Chase can still be backed at 6/1, he will go off around 5/2 fav imo once Ruby has been confirmed to ride him and the field cuts up.