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What's Going on Today?

  • 17-02-2009 11:23am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭


    There seems to have been some major movements today in the FX market which in turn is affecting everything else. Is this down to the Eastern European countries? I've been scanning various resources to get an idea of what's going on.

    Any idea/rumours from anyone involved in the markets?


    RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process - Updated (11:47 PM)
    :17 CT

    I do not know what is going on here, and I don't think I want to.

    Someone, apparently someone in Asia, wants dollars. A LOT of dollars. There is a forced-liquidation event underway that is massive, it is against all asset classes and it is spreading.

    It originated at approximately 7:15 CT this evening and originated out of Asia somewhere. All of the primary currency crosses got hit at once - Euro, Pound, Yen - all weakened dramatically against the dollar and it is still going on. The Asian stock markets got walloped at the same time in coordinated waves of forced selling.

    At the same time the US futures markets got nailed as well, down some six handles on the /ES in a near-vertical drop. While this sounds "not that big" to move these markets in a coordinated fashion like this is a trillion-dollar enterprise - this is not some small company that went bankrupt, or even a large company.

    There is no news coverage at the present time identifying the source of this but it is not small and contrary to some reports it is not "automatic selling"; this is forced liquidation.

    Folks, if this translates into Eastern Europe where there are severe instabilities already brewing literally everything in the financial world could come apart "all at once."


Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭ixus


    Also, see here

    Workstation_090217.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 64 ✭✭Captain Corelli


    I thought the FX and stock movements were due to a flight to safety toward $, gold and long dated US gov bonds(disregarding their thin yields). I assume it started in Asia because of time zones. The economic outloo may have to do with increased protectionist maneuvers from the G7 meeting. Moodys warned publicably about un-creditworthiness of eastern European banking operations. All those factors seem to be hinted in that really opinionated 'report'.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭ixus


    Capt. Correlli - the report is a blog, it's opionated alright but, Karl Denniger of the tickerforum is one of the more accurate (and extreme) commentators on the markets. Generally, if something is happening in the markets, you'll find out about it at www.tickerforum.org

    The Zloty (Poland) is in trouble. Apparently, a lot of Polish borrowings/mortgages are in Swiss Francs. There appear to be big problems with Eastern European countries at present (never mind our own).

    Todays movements were/are not simply investors flight to quality/safety as a result of G7. The movements were massive, co-ordinated and across a number of markets. Something major happened.

    It could have been knowledge of this.

    I figure there hasn't been much comment on this here today either because people are extremely busy with this (hopefully making a buck or two) or, just haven't a clue why it's happening.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,483 ✭✭✭✭daveirl


    This post has been deleted.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭ixus


    Looks like it's going to be another brutal day today.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,854 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    Worth keeping an eye on the dollar index, it seems to be dollar up commodities and indexes down.

    73949.jpg

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭ixus


    charts.jsp?s=DX&o=&a=D&z=800x550&d=medium&b=bar&st=

    BOOM! The announcements by the FED today has caused some major movements in the markets today.

    That was some drop off in the US Dollar index today...posts I made on thepropertypin today...
    ixus wrote:
    Hyper Hyper!

    U.S. Considers Expanding TALF to Distressed Assets
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8G2FXg513lE&refer=home
    ...As it’s currently set up, the TALF may lend as much as $1 trillion to investors from hedge funds to pension funds and insurance companies to buy recently created securities backed by loans for car purchases, college education and real estate. Applications for its first loans are due tomorrow.

    Broadening the TALF to include older, illiquid and lower- rated securities could allow the participants in the public- private investment funds to potentially repackage assets and sell them on to a wider group. ...

    1.25 TRILLION

    Fed to Buy $300 Billion of Treasuries, Increase Other Purchases
    ....“To provide greater support to mortgage lending and housing markets, the committee decided today to increase the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet further by purchasing up to an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage- backed securities,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement in Washington today. “Moreover, to help improve conditions in private credit markets, the committee decided to purchase up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months.”

    Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is becoming more aggressive after unemployment climbed to 8.1 percent and economists forecast the economy will shrink through the middle of the year. Fed officials also kept the benchmark interest rate at between zero and 0.25 percent. The central bank also said it will consider expanding the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to include “other financial assets,” the statement said.

    The Fed added that it will “increase its purchases of agency debt this year by up to $100 billion to a total of up to $200 billion. ......

    ixus wrote:
    http://acrossthecurve.com/?p=3964
    The breakeven spreads on 10 year and 30 year TIPS are exploding. That means they are predicting more inflation down the road. The breakeven spreads generally move glacially.

    In both the 30 year sector and the 10 year sector they have moved about 11 basis points today.

    That movement would be in line with the absolute cratering of the greenback as well as the huge move(upward) in price of gold.

    http://acrossthecurve.com/?p=3955
    ICBM Bernanke
    March 18th, 2009 3:06 pm | by John Jansen |

    Helicopter Ben is no longer the appropriate appellation for the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System. Under the tutelage of this former economics professor, Chairman Bernanke launched an ICBM into the market today and I will dub him ICBM Ben.

    The Committee voted to expand the balance sheet of the Fed by a whopping $1.150 trillion. The Fed will buy an additional $750 billion mortgages,an additional$100 billion agencies and for the first time they have added $300 billion longer dated Treasuries to the list.

    The move in the market is huge,historical and hellacious....

    ICBM = Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (I think)

    2007.08.17icbm.JPG
    ixus wrote:
    gold.gif

    That is some jump in a couple of hours. FED is turning on the afterburners.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 21,981 ✭✭✭✭Hanley


    Am I reading that gold chart right....??

    It went from about 881 daily low to 940 4 hours later???


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭ixus


    Hanley wrote: »
    Am I reading that gold chart right....??

    It went from about 881 daily low to 940 4 hours later???

    Yep, all based on what the FED did/said.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭ixus


    An interesting day in the markets today. The markets would appear to be reacting to the World Bank report, but why would the market react any stronger than normal? I mean, none of this news is a surprise to me. Is it to you?

    Also, the S&P is near the 200 and 50 day MA cross over.

    I've a heap of links which I think are worth a quick browse in terms of todays view. Would appreciate some comment on it.

    World Bank Says Global Economic Recession to Deepen


    Emerging nations' growth to slow


    U.S., Europe Stocks Fall, Commodities Drop on Recession Concern


    VIX, VStoxx Surge as World Bank Report Sends Equities Tumbling

    No recovery for U.S. property markets until 2017
    White House Expects 10% Unemployment In Next Few Months - US Bank stress tests were for 9%!!!

    The 50 DMA and 200 DMA are about to collide. What next?

    The risks of a double-dip, W-shaped recession may be growing
    By Nouriel Roubini

    TIPS Gain in Market’s Worst Year; Validation of Pimco


    Links to World Bank reports:

    The Financial Crisis: Charting a Global Recovery

    Financial Crisis - What the World Bank Is Doing


    Global Perspectives on the Economic Crisis


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 508 ✭✭✭Block (8


    Thks for the links.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭pirelli


    So do you think we are going to succeed this bull market and complete the v shape recovery.:)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,854 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    my chart of today , it shows the number of stocks above their 50 day MA , i would not take on a long position until this gets into the 10/20 range,unless trading

    50rg.jpg

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,854 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    The regional bank index is on its way to do a retest of the march lows , using trendlines its lost all support, one of the flock of canaries in the coal mine


    krx2.jpg

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭ixus


    Anyone know why the sharp gap in German bonds?
    They don't seem to correlate to US Treasuries, can't see it in oil/gold.
    USD/EUR is moving sharply enough.

    Can't find any news items. Greenspans articles?

    Schatz -2 Year
    Bobl - 5 Year
    Bund - 10 Year


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭ixus


    ixus wrote: »
    Anyone know why the sharp gap in German bonds?
    They don't seem to correlate to US Treasuries, can't see it in oil/gold.
    USD/EUR is moving sharply enough.

    Can't find any news items. Greenspans articles?

    Schatz -2 Year
    Bobl - 5 Year
    Bund - 10 Year

    Must have been this:

    Massive surge in European bond issuance


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭ixus


    Market Tankage today. Reality check!

    The Emporer has no clothes. Again.


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