Israeli elections - what now?

philologos

I'm surprised there isn't a thread about this already, it's pretty worthy of discussion one of the most interesting Israeli results for quite a while with a deadlock between the more moderate most likely to be headed by Tzipi Livni, and the right wing most likely to be headed by Benjamin Netanyahu. Just wondering on what other people think about this, The Times (UK) went through the possible coalition options given the following results:


The main five:

• Kadima - 28
• Likud - 27
• Yisrael Beitenyu - 15
• Labour - 13
• Shas - 11

Other Left:

• United Arab List - 5
• Hadash - 4
• Meretz - 3
• Balad - 3

Other Right:

• National Union - 4
• United Torah Judaism - 4
• Jewish Home - 3

The magic number to be sought is 61 out of 120 MK's voted to the Knesset.

The possible coalitions given:
Mixed coalition (Tzipi Livni as PM)
1) Kadima, Yisrael Beitenyu, Labour, Shas - 67 seats
Right wing coalition (Netanyahu)
2) Likud, Yisrael Beitenyu, Shas, United Torah Judaism, National Union, Jewish Home - 64 seats
Unity government coalitions (Netanyahu or Livni as PM)
3) Kadima, Likud, Yisrael Beitenyu - 70 seats
4) Kadima, Likud, Yisrael Beitenyu, Labour - 83 seats

Right my personal opinion is as follows, I think Livni and the more moderate branch are the most suitable for continuing on in Israeli leadership and will bring the most promising results in terms of peacetalks, however eitherway this will have to involve the far right leader of Yisrael Beitenyu Avigdor Lieberman who has suggested that disloyal Israeli Arabs should be deported from Israel. I think this will potentially save lives if any potential conflict were to arise, and I think this coalition would have an easier relationship with Obama and the USA.

Having said this part of me is also kind of intrigued for what differences the right wing coalition would bring, but I think that it is potentially so dangerous in terms of violence and in terms of negative effects to social cohesion that it isn't all that worthy of consideration.

However, the strongest coalition would come from a national unity government with Livni, Netanyahu and Lieberman all having key roles.

Just wondering if any others have any opinions on what way Israel should form it's coalition.

Nodin

A right wing Government is more violence guaranteed. Any other coalition with Yisrael Beitenyu is unlikely to last.

Mr.Micro

Netanyahu is a failed politician and will bring nothing but trouble for Israel IMO if he becomes PM. The choice in Israel appears to be to choose from one corrupt or alleged corrupt male politician after another, with Ms Livni being the welcome exception, it appears it is a prequisite for most of the others.

philologos

Unfortunately the right have to be considered as they have gained a majority of the Knesset, to form any coalition Tzipi Livni will have to pick either Likud or Yisrael Beitenyu.

I personally think the latter option of all the major 4 parties would form the strongest cabinet, and there would be a balance between moderates and those on the right in the actual government. At least Likud, and Yisrael Beitenyu would be somewhat balanced by Barak's Labour party.

Edit: Added graphs from today's paper (The Times - UK) about the possible options as attachment