Quit betting on away games?

Blitzkrieger

I've been betting small amounts of money on soccer for a while now and I don't seem to be getting anywhere. The idea was to try and get a winning "system" going first, then up the ante. I'm seeing around a 60% win rate and am making a small profit, but I think I need to be above 65% to "guarantee" making any sort of money.

I'm thinking I should just drop the away games. My win rate for home games for the last 15 weeks is 66% but for away games it's only 54% with an overall rate of 61%. On the surface it seems obvious - drop the away games and you'll hit your goal, but there's typically better odds on the away games so better potential for profit. They're far more likely to offer better odds than even money, so as long as I'm above a 50% success rate, I may make some profit.

Only considering away games that involve an "old firm" team is some help - the Barcelona's, Inter's and Uniteds. It brings the away success rate up to 59%, but the downside is the odds tend to be poorer for these games (1.67 on United last week).

It's a shame "win or draw" gives such **** odds - I'd have a 89% home success rate and 84% overall.

It's a mugs game....

Dodge

Whats your Return on investment for home and away sides?

Blitzkrieger

I knew someone would ask that. I haven't got the data with me and it'll probably take a while to put together. I have to think it's about even. The aways might pay a small bit more but I'm winning less of them.

Dodge

I'd rather have a strike rate of 40% on 2/1 shots than 70% on 1/2 shots

kingshankly

like in all types of gambling its all about getting value but this can take a bit of work researching betfair etc but if your getting value your chances of winning are greatly enhanced

Blitzkrieger

Dodge wrote: »

I'd rather have a strike rate of 40% on 2/1 shots than 70% on 1/2 shots

True, but you'll rarely see better than 2.1 - 2.25 on any team you'd want to bet on.

Trampas

My own opinion is that when you are backing away team you are backing a team -1 compared to backing the team at home.

Like last man standing comps you are better of backing a team at home than a team away.

Dodge

Blitzkrieger wrote: »

True, but you'll rarely see better than 2.1 - 2.25 on any team you'd want to bet on.

It's about value rather than picking winners for me

Blitzkrieger

Well it's always about value. If I think a team has a .7 chance of winning I'm not going to back them at 1.67....

Turns out I should be dropping the home games. For the last 15 weeks I've made a 2% profit on the away games with average odds of 2. I've made -3% on home games with average odds of 1.7. The only reason my account is +20% for that period is 5 out of 6 sneaky accumulators have come in for me....

dsmythy

I knew you would be making more on the away games than the home going by your strikerate. A lot of those away games are going to be 2/1+.

Staying home may be of use to Last Man Standing but when it comes to betting you should only do it if your stats are telling you to.

Latchy

Use to be the top premership home sides were good bankers.Chelsea and Aresnal drawing at home last week did me no favours

Chucky the tree

Avoid premiership tbh. I'd suprised if people can make serious profits on betting on premiership, la liga and Seire A.

premierstone

latchyco wrote: »

Use to be the top premership home sides were good bankers.Chelsea and Aresnal drawing at home last week did me no favours

Arsenal were away last weekend

Latchy

premierstone wrote: »

Arsenal were away last weekend

Opps, confused them with another premership home team .Spurs I think .

Warper

Chucky the tree wrote: »

Avoid premiership tbh. I'd suprised if people can make serious profits on betting on premiership, la liga and Seire A.

The worst League is the Championship to bet on.

Though i find the European Leagues the best - namely Serie A, La Liga, Ligue 1 and the German Bundesliga. Basically i find the most attractive fixtures are ones which the top teams are playing away from home. Scroll through all of these and pick the best 2 and back these as a double.

Dodge

Chunky's point was that because the teams/form etc are very well known the odds are usually about right. Its nothing to do with strikerate

mark renton

I find in most cases where teams are fairly equal in league position and a slight advantage can be seen for the away side (ie: home top scorer/ key player missing) then good value can be had for backing the away side +1 goal or "Draw no Bet"... Usually at 8/11 can be achieved in some situations... maybe best used outside of Premiership/Seria A etc due to the amount of key players in each team

premierstone

latchyco wrote: »

Opps, confused them with another premership home team .Spurs I think .

LOL now ur just having a laugh you said a 'Top' premiership team, seriously the spuds a top premiership team :pac:

sternn

I am a huge villa supporter, and have been betting on villa to win away for the last 10 games. 9 of those...villa have won. Im in a huge amount of profit, and am sticking either 50/100 on villa to win on sunday v everton. Teams attack when they play at home, and VIlla are mainly a counter-attack team so away games suit them much better.

mark renton

sternn wrote: »

I am a huge villa supporter, and have been betting on villa to win away for the last 10 games. 9 of those...villa have won. Im in a huge amount of profit, and am sticking either 50/100 on villa to win on sunday v everton. Teams attack when they play at home, and VIlla are mainly a counter-attack team so away games suit them much better.

Good stuff - I dont mean to be negative here but I would suggest getting out while your ahead of the law of averages, bitch always catches up

Warper

sternn wrote: »

I am a huge villa supporter, and have been betting on villa to win away for the last 10 games. 9 of those...villa have won. Im in a huge amount of profit, and am sticking either 50/100 on villa to win on sunday v everton. Teams attack when they play at home, and VIlla are mainly a counter-attack team so away games suit them much better.

I have backed Everton for Sunday. Everton have only lost away to Man Utd. in their last 12 matches and that included 3 games against Liverpool. Villa are flying at the moment but so are Everton and Everton's defense is outstanding - HOME WIN.

mark renton

Warper wrote: »

I have backed Everton for Sunday. Everton have only lost away to Man Utd. in their last 12 matches and that included 3 games against Liverpool. Villa are flying at the moment but so are Everton and Everton's defense is outstanding - HOME WIN.

sternn wrote: »

I am a huge villa supporter, and have been betting on villa to win away for the last 10 games. 9 of those...villa have won. Im in a huge amount of profit, and am sticking either 50/100 on villa to win on sunday v everton. Teams attack when they play at home, and VIlla are mainly a counter-attack team so away games suit them much better.

Looks like a draw here - 9/4 PP Both teams fairly even, and a cup game where if one team is winning then momentum tends to go with the other

Blitzkrieger

Showing a loss this week Some amount of fupping draws - 45% of my picks drew.

thee glitz

Blitzkrieger wrote: »

Well it's always about value. If I think a team has a .7 chance of winning I'm not going to back them at 1.67....

I would always back a team at 1.67 if I rated them a 70% chance. 1.5 would even be tempting.

Blitzkrieger

A 67% return on investment on a 70% shot? Can't be value there.