If I am 30 what is the stats I will be alive tomorrow

derry

If I am 30 what is the stats I will be alive tomorrow

This is just a small project to see see what is the statistical probabailty that a person will be alive the next day( in the ROI)

For example a one year old baby in a rich country like ROI might have something like a 97% chance to be alive the next day or a 3% chance to be dead

A hundred year old person might have probable risk to be alive the next day of less than 1% or 99% chance to be dead the next day

I know it morbid but i prefer to face reality head on not that it makes any difference


I know that you can get the stats from the life assurace for how risky it is for longer terms like up to 65 years old but I am just interested as a statistical curiousity whats the odds for the next day

I dont want to get into big maths formulaes so is there a nice simple maths formula that can approx the nuber to simple rounding off so I can know ffrrom the top of my head the odds for each age group such as 5 ,10, 15, .....100 years old

Then I can approx the numbers in between

Derry

epictetus2009

Would the Question need to factor is


a) population [example 500]
b) death rate averaged each day over a year [example 3 per day]
c) locate correct formula to calculate prob you die on 32 days into year.


Question looks like:

What is the probability that you die 32 days into the year given that there are 3 deaths on average per day in 365 days.

3/32 x 3/32 x 3/32 x 3/32 thirty two times...and score is the prob you die on the 32nd day.

does the formula of the multiplication rule come into play here? wild guess..

derry

Sounds to complex

I was figuring more like lets say there are 5 million in ROI

let ball park say there are 50,000 new babies per year and say 30000 deaths per year

lets ball park say babies death rate 0 to 1 years ols is 1% in that years

Now the dieers from all age groups 0 to 100 is like 30,000 from natural causes and died in bed hospital accidents or abnormal events

Now in simplex terms if we say there is 5,000,000 peoples and all age groups are the same we find that 5million devided by 100 = 50,000 per each age group strata
eg 0 to 1 years old = 50,000
.... 1 to 2 years old = 50,000

and so forth

now its on average not risky to be a baby so 1% risk of death in the first year of life would be ball park a figure to chose

Now a 99 year old would be at a much higer risk to die going from 99 to 100 so maybe the risk to die in that year might be 99%


Now ball park the 30 year old might have a 40% risk to die in the year going from 30 to 31 years old

Now we know that in the real world the age structure is more pyramad so the stats will bulge towards the top as in a upside down pyramid
Other factors like average age span of men is 72 so risks jump exponentialy after mayby 72 for men and maybe 80 for women ??

Now the real question is having figured the risk to die at a given age strata such as 30 going onto 31 which might be 40% is the risk each day the guy goes to bed that he will wake up dead or pop his clogs that night the same 40% or will another statistic kick in and maybe reduce his risk each night to maybe 20%

I figure if one went into a bookie and said what the bet that I will pop my clogs in my sleep that night he could give me odds on depending only on my age

Hope that helps

My maths abilty are sorta simplex but I like to know for curiousity sake my odds to wake up the next day not dead


Derry

2Scoops

This might help:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VHT-4H3XWGW-5&_user=918210&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000047944&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=918210&md5=ff72cb072aa9da568d8771de22a01c64

TommyGunne

There is no simple formula unfortunately. It is quite easy to calculate though. Access to actuarial tables are freely available online. Just look up the 2000 series tables and look at the lx's. This should give you a rough idea per year of death rates. From that it is quite easy to find daily rates (note you should be adjusting this so that a person has a higher probability of dying as they get older, even by day (unless obv their 0-13 and 23-26 as P(death) falls during these age groups.)) Should be relatively easy to estimate. Easiest way would be to export the data to an excel workbook and make a little programme do the dirty work for you.

Note: When using the 00 series tables, you should factor in that mortality has improved since then, and will continue to improve, so you should pick your cohort as you think would be fit. Also, note that this data is based on people with life insurance, and they are slightly healthier than the population in general.

This might also help: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_table