Need help setting prop bet

semibluff

Need some help from people who have done weight loss prop bets recently, or have experience in health science etc.

I had been chatting to a friend of mine recently about a prob bet he has coming up. He is 29, and weighs 100kgs at the time of the bet (start of january). He is 6ft1. He has played sports a few years back but nothing recently.

There is an even money prop bet with him and a friend of his from home, for 5k, that he can/cant get to 85kgs by easter weekend. Its a good bet, and good motivation for him. Id imagine he'l do it, or get very close.

I then proposed he put a simular prop bet to me and id consider it. He proposed that we both try and get to 85kgs. Im currently 95kgs.

Few concerns i have about this are;

I am 6ft3 and the actual weight i should be compared to him is different.
According to an online height/weight/age/sex site. Medically i should be 91kgs or lighter.
He should be 86kgs or lighter.

This would lead me to say he will lose the weight alot easier than me.

At the start of our convo he said he was 95kgs from a starting weight of 100kgs. But he then weighs himself and due to boozing a few days in a row, he's 99kgs.

I broke my jaw a few months back and went from 15stone to 13.5 stone over a 5 week period of eating through a straw. When i went back to eating I went back up to 14 stone. Im now 14 and half stone.

I realistically dont think i can lose more than 1 stone, at a push. Also with gym work, I'll be putting weight on a little too.

I really want to get some sort of fair prop bet set up. If we both achieve then nobody pays, if we both lose, nobody pays. only if one wins, and one doesnt then the loser pays whatever we agree. (it will be 1k+)

I think for him to get from 100kgs (or the 99kgs he's at now) to 85kgs, will be alot easier than me getting from 95kgs to 85kgs.

Fair suggestions appreciated. Im happy with a Neutral EV bet, but the one he proposed is -EV for me.

(BTW the other guy posts here, but ill leave it to him if he chooses to get involved)

Thanks

aya14

Just spoke to a mate who's a nutritionist. From what I told her she reckons he'll lose wieght at a ratio 1.9:1 in comparison to you.
So he will manage to cut down 15kgs in 11 weeks whereas it'll ake you 14 to lose 10kgs.
Hope this helps

semibluff

thanks aya, thats exactly what i was hoping to hear.

Any fair suggestions appreciated too

Theresalwaysone

I 100% wouldnt measure the bet by "weight loss", Measure it by fat loss, and use calipers to take the measurements properly, or, get a trained professional to do it for you.

If you were to do a "weight loss" bet, its too easy manipulated. Taking a crap, a whizz and going for a run before the weigh in, while drinking no water will have your weight much different to what it actually is. Hydration/Previous Eating/Bowel Contents all have an effect on "weight" while caliper fat measurement will negate this effect. It will also cancel the effects you mention of putting on weight with gym work.

So, measuring your lean body mass and using that as the barometer will be the fairest way to do it imo. Obviously, he will lose fat quicker than you if he is fatter, particularly the first few kg's.

1.9/1 seems very high tbh Aya, is that saying his mate will lose the weight twice as fast as Donal. Id imagine the ratio drops with the weight lost, as its harder to lose fat, the less fat you get/are. how would you incorporate this into the bet Donal?

Thats my 2c.

meathman 007

aya14 wrote: »

Just spoke to a mate who's a nutritionist. From what I told her she reckons he'll lose wieght at a ratio 1.9:1 in comparison to you.
So he will manage to cut down 15kgs in 11 weeks whereas it'll ake you 14 to lose 10kgs.
Hope this helps

I dont see how she can make that assumpion based on the facts Donee gave in his op... impossible to give an accurate answer without knowing something about their metabolism, genetics etc.... I agree with Theresalwaysone, it should be based on body fat % loss and not weight loss

semibluff

if it were to be on weight loss alone i would need a handicap on it to make this bet do-able.

Thanks for suggestions so far. I agree there are alot to be considered before deciding it. Also if done by body fat wouldn't affect gym work. If its weight i would have to stop this and do cardio only

semibluff

I suggested i meet 88kgs for the same date he meets 85kgs

how this this sound??

Chucky the tree

Theresalways hit the nail on the head I think.

If I was you I'd check what your body fat % is then try and figure out how much you can lose from that. If you have a lowish body fat % you'll struggle to cut the weight. According to my BMI I am at the top end of overweight and borderline obesse which is just lolinaccurate. I'm 5'7 or so and 80kgs. Thinks like muscle and bone desity play into weight alot so I'd definitly recommend getting your body % done.

Imposter

This has come up a few times over on the fitness forum.

You've to lose 10kg which isn't that much. Recommended waitloss is about 1kg a week so you have enough time. Add to that you can always manipulate things by about 2-3kg easy enough once it comes to weigh-in (be dehydrated etc...).

88kg while putting you at the same point on your recommended BMI for your height as him should be quite easy for you in comparison to the 14kg he has to lose.

More interestingly for you is what is your lifestyle like? If you've been doing sport (and taking it seriously) then it's a lot more difficult for you. Still though diet would be where such a bet is won or lost.

As for the bodyfat thing - yes it probably would be a better way of judging this but it would need to be measured by the same person who knows what they are doing here - bodyfat is very hard to measure accurately.

semibluff

Imposter wrote: »

This has come up a few times over on the fitness forum.

You've to lose 10kg which isn't that much. Recommended waitloss is about 1kg a week so you have enough time. Add to that you can always manipulate things by about 2-3kg easy enough once it comes to weigh-in (be dehydrated etc...).

88kg while putting you at the same point on your recommended BMI for your height as him should be quite easy for you in comparison to the 14kg he has to lose.

More interestingly for you is what is your lifestyle like? If you've been doing sport (and taking it seriously) then it's a lot more difficult for you. Still though diet would be where such a bet is won or lost.

As for the bodyfat thing - yes it probably would be a better way of judging this but it would need to be measured by the same person who knows what they are doing here - bodyfat is very hard to measure accurately.

Can you expand on the bold above? His argument is that its the fact that i play a fair bit of sports that i'll be able to lose the weight EASIER.

Agree body fat would be the most accurate way, but for reasons imposter said along with others, im trying to find a fair "weight loss" figure.

It'll be a hard challenge to do regardless, just trying to find what we can set it at so that both parties are happy

RoundTower

semibluff wrote: »

Can you expand on the bold above? His argument is that its the fact that i play a fair bit of sports that i'll be able to lose the weight EASIER.

If you're already playing lots of sports you're skinnier than you would be if you hadn't been. He's going to see a lot more return from doing an extra 2 hours exercise a week than you are.

I don't know anything about this subject (except I have heard from everyone that diet is way more important than exercise) but that makes perfect sense to me.

dK1NG

semibluff wrote: »

Can you expand on the bold above? His argument is that its the fact that i play a fair bit of sports that i'll be able to lose the weight EASIER.

Agree body fat would be the most accurate way, but for reasons imposter said along with others, im trying to find a fair "weight loss" figure.

It'll be a hard challenge to do regardless, just trying to find what we can set it at so that both parties are happy

If you've been doing sports, then it is much less likely that any "weight loss" will be from water etc. Early days, it is to be expected that he - if he is inactive atm - would be able to shift a few kgs fairly easily, but eventually this will plateau at which point any weight loss will come from "real" weight.

On the other hand, your metabolism would (presumably) be starting at a higher level. Plus if you have been in the gym/ doing CV exercise, then your BMR would be high - with the result that you would be burning more calories while at rest.



EDIT: Just to say I agree it would be harder for you if its based on weight loss, whereas it would be much easier for you if it was body fat %.

con_leche

semibluff wrote: »

His argument is that its the fact that i play a fair bit of sports that i'll be able to lose the weight EASIER.

If your baseline is a moderate amount of physical activity - i.e. already 4-5 sessions a week, then losing 10 kg by Easter is a big ask.

If someone is going from a low excercise baseline, and poor diet, they can expect to lose the first few kg very easily.

However, Semibluff, you should have an advantage in terms of mental disciple, grit, etc., if you have already been training at a reasonable level in the recent past. This cannot be discounted. One stone is a reasonable target.

con_leche

Incidentally, the easiest way to ship the weight off in my experience is a cycling break, of one week or longer in duration, long steady sessions of over 100 km per day, at low heart rate.

YULETIRED

If you are looking for a fair weight loss for your bet, it's not how much you CAN lose, it's how much you are prepared to lose. If I were you I would not be prepared to lose more than a stone and a half.
On a MUCH more important note , as you've been on liquids this last while I wouldn't do this bet at all, not without consulting a doctor. Posting on boards will get you a stream of good and bad advice, however the maths turns out on it, it sounds to me like your digestive system has been through a few changes. My advice, do a different prop bet.
A good prop bet is learn to ride an unicycle for 800 metres. Loser has to run naked through the poker room on the opening day of the Ladies poker open. (and hug Carfax)
You can also try ReneZelwigger.com for sudden weight gain or loss advice.
Don't eat after 7. (will take care of 1 stone anyway)

hf4z6sqo7vjngi

An alternative to Willies suggestion.... do a weigh in again but this time stick a load of lead weights down your jocks

YULETIRED

Casen Gorgeous Stationery wrote: »

An alternative to Willies suggestion.... do a weigh in again but this time stick a load of lead weights down your jocks

I heard an English Pro poker player did this once during a similar Prop bet.

bloody cheat.

Imposter

YULETIRED wrote: »

Don't eat after 7. (will take care of 1 stone anyway)

I don't know if that was meant seriously or not but that's rubbish. Calories are calories. It's an easy way to tell people not to eat junk in the evenings but that's all it is.

Semibluff,

Don't forget your opponent already has a sizeable wager on this so he's pretty confident he won't fail. Basically you have to lose this weight in order to not have to pay! If you are not prepared to do this physically to yourself then don't - if it's something you want to do then this might be the motivation you need - but in terms of making money from this you'd have to be very confident that your friend is going to fail in his efforts!!

You've been doing a fair bit of sport so 88kg would be a fairer number and even that would probably be tougher for you to achieve as once he starts losing weight (and he should easily enough) he just has to keep it up. You have to exercise more and/or change your diet enough even though you are already doing a certain amount of sport.

semibluff

just so everyone knows, we've set the bet at 87 of me to 85 of him. pressures on

thanks for all the advice people!

any got recommended diets etc?

dK1NG

semibluff wrote: »

just so everyone knows, we've set the bet at 87 of me to 85 of him. pressures on

thanks for all the advice people!

any got recommended diets etc?

I hear that Atkins diet is supposed to be quite good.....:P


Just remember the so-called 80:20 rule, diet:training. A nice balance between cardio/sport and some gym work (medium-high reps, low rest between sets) and healthy eating. Cut out alcohol, junk, fast food as much as possible etc etc. Might be worth ahving a look at the fooddoctor site for diet tips - http://www.thefooddoctor.com/Health-advice-Ahealth_home/


Best of luck to both of ye!

redzerdrog

.

semibluff

Just to update if anyone is interested,

The weigh in for this is on Friday mid-day at some stage. Im going to the City west as is the other guy. My weight at the start of the weekend was 90kgs, and having talked to many about extreme measures i figured if i can get as close to 89/88 then i can allow for dehydration (sauna) to get me over the line.

Im doing alot of cardio this week along with a ridic diet (that has me starving - mainly just meat and soup).

I had been doing very well from the outset of this challenge, i hadnt been drinking and was down to 91kgs pretty soon. when it seemed that easy i tried to get the amount of the bet raised to maintain interest. When this didnt happen i took the foot off the peddle a little. The short and long of it, if i had kept to a decent excercise regime and diet, id be well over the line by now, but didnt.

Still confident ill get there though . . .

Killme00

I cant describe how stupid this is.

semibluff

Killme00 wrote: »

I cant describe how stupid this is.

please do enlighten me

carfax

Killme00 wrote: »

I cant describe how stupid this is.

semibluff wrote: »

please do enlighten me

Maybe he thinks you're a certainty to lose the bet
_______________________________________

Its serious money you are talking about there for any kind of prop bet, best of luck at the weigh-in Donal.

Stephen.

semibluff

Im not sure what he means . . . there is alot of money on it, so ill do whatever needs to make the weight for friday. It may not be the healthiest approach, but its just short term to make the weight (akin to a boxing making a weigh in!)

El Stuntman

semibluff wrote: »

Im not sure what he means . . . there is alot of money on it, so ill do whatever needs to make the weight for friday. It may not be the healthiest approach, but its just short term to make the weight (akin to a boxing making a weigh in!)

I know how you can get rid of a stone of ugly fat before Friday

Killme00

semibluff wrote: »

please do enlighten me

Ok, you say there is lots of money on it so why the fck did you leave it to the last week? Now you are going to punsih your body by trying to dehydrate 5kilos!!

You only have 10kgs to lose...ie 22lbs so just over 2lbs per week for ten weeks. All you had to do was work out your total calorific needs per day, reduce by 10-15% and add in excercise.

My point is leaving it to the last minute is idiotic.

To make sure you make it, book yourself in for a colonic, sweat yourself down and dont eat the night before or the morning of the weighin. Make sure its a morning weigh in.

semibluff

ive 2kgs max to lose through dehydration.

Agree totally its idiotic leaving it until last minute.

With a tough week this week, i should get very close without the "punishment".

Thanks for opinion though

hotspur

How is the other guy doing? If you are both going to put yourselves through bodily abuse to get to your goals then surely you can call it a draw, which it will be the majority of the time anyway.

It doesn't sound like a great idea if you are going to be playing the IO. I always thought the real goals of these types of prop bets were to motivate the people to lose weight and get healthy. If I were you I would definitely talk to your opponent about where you both stand and what you want to put yourselves through this week.

Theresalwaysone

Good luck Donal. No pain,no...er...gain.