Heineken Cup

premierstone

As of last night Munster were still available at 3/1 on betfair which is cracking value imo, and considering they are as short as 15/8 in PP is too big to ignore

myflipflops

Have you worked out the likely quarter final oppenents for them premierstone? I haven't had a chance yet, will try and sit down tongiht and do it.

cson

Thats a very big price tbh, especially after Toulouse getting turned over by Glasgow. Still a long way to go though and home and away is a big factor in the HC. I'd have that as back to lay, back them now on the hope that they'll take care of whoever they meet in the QFs and then lay in the SFs if the draw doesn't appeal. You'd surely be able to lock in a profit that way.

Incidentally, there is a lot of money to be made with the handicap betting in rugby. Whoever does it up hasn't a clue. Even the points differential between shops is shocking, can be a difference of 2 points sometimes. The latest ones that come to mind is Wasps (-2) and Ospreys (+7).

premierstone

pwhite587 wrote: »

Have you worked out the likely quarter final oppenents for them premierstone? I haven't had a chance yet, will try and sit down tongiht and do it.

I have studied it alright and tbh there is so many variables its really speulation if I had a gun to my head I would say the most likely is Harlequins in Thomond, not something that would hold any fears for Munster and as cson pointed out you can then lay off the bet at the semi stage if needs be, but with Tolouse all but gone Im finding it hard to see anyone beating Munster at this stage

Chucky the tree

premierstone wrote: »

I have studied it alright and tbh there is so many variables its really speulation if I had a gun to my head I would say the most likely is Harlequins in Thomond, not something that would hold any fears for Munster and as cson pointed out you can then lay off the bet at the semi stage if needs be, but with Tolouse all but gone Im finding it hard to see anyone beating Munster at this stage

How are they are but gone? If they beat bath away they will qualify. 3/1 is a **** price I think.

premierstone

Chucky the tree wrote: »

How are they are but gone? If they beat bath away they will qualify. 3/1 is a **** price I think.

Well considering they were beaten at home by Glasgow, who had nothing to play for, and they now need to beat the table toppers bath in the Rec where they have an amazing record and even if they were to pull that off they would be away in the Q/F, but thanks for your insightfull contribution would you care to expand on why you think its bad value or can you even offer an alternative bet to win the heineken cup??

Chucky the tree

premierstone wrote: »

Well considering they were beaten at home by Glasgow, who had nothing to play for, and they now need to beat the table toppers bath in the Rec where they have an amazing record and even if they were to pull that off they would be away in the Q/F, but thanks for your insightfull contribution would you care to expand on why you think its bad value or can you even offer an alternative bet to win the heineken cup??

Why would they be away? there on 18 points and if they win they would be on 22. They currently have more points then table toppers Leinster and Harlequinns and joint with Munster.

I just wouldnt be happy backing Munster in 3 matches at nearly 1/2 when they'll most likely be away in the semi's. As for who to back, I'd probaly leave it. I dont see a huge amount of value there but I think Lecister at 10/1 isnt a bad price. IF they get a losing bonus point they will be through and I think they have a good chance of even beating them.

Since they quarters wont be for another few months I wouldnt rule out Wasps either at 18/1, they have a knack of switching it on late in the season.

premierstone

Chucky the tree wrote: »

Why would they be away? there on 18 points and if they win they would be on 22. They currently have more points then table toppers Leinster and Harlequinns and joint with Munster.

I just wouldnt be happy backing Munster in 3 matches at nearly 1/2 when they'll most likely be away in the semi's. As for who to back, I'd probaly leave it. I dont see a huge amount of value there but I think Lecister at 10/1 isnt a bad price. IF they get a losing bonus point they will be through and I think they have a good chance of even beating them.

Since they quarters wont be for another few months I wouldnt rule out Wasps either at 18/1, they have a knack of switching it on late in the season.

??? Home advantage for the semis is based on which team is drawn first are you suggesting collusion :eek: The 3/1 is gone btw so im not alone in thinkin it was a good price

Chucky the tree

premierstone wrote: »

??? Home advantage for the semis is based on which team is drawn first are you suggesting collusion :eek: The 3/1 is gone btw so im not alone in thinkin it was a good price

I originally thought that if Munster got a "home" draw they still would of had to play it in england with RDS not having a 20k capacity. I am sure plenty of people thought it was a good price, there are also plenty of people of gamble who are idiots, not sayng your an idiot but I dont think using the fact that loads of people backed it is a good way of saying it was a good bet.


However they definitly got the best draw they could of asked for so 3/1 doesnt look to bad now.

premierstone

Chucky the tree wrote: »

However they definitly got the best draw they could of asked for so 3/1 doesnt look to bad now.

Yeah they cudnt have asked for much more in fairness, although it seems I was a bit hasty in writing off Tolouse, I really dont want to have to play them again tbh but other than them (and their passage seems fraught with danger) I would fancy Munster against any of the other teams so im quite content with my bet.