Another big windstorm on Thursday night?

M.T. Cranium

The 00z GFS and ECM agreed on the potential for a major windstorm across Ireland and the southern UK late Thursday and Friday morning, and the 06z tends to confirm this.

Wednesday will turn quite windy, but a stronger low follows, deepens to about 950 mbs, and moves across the northern part of Donegal around 2100h Thursday. The winds look quite fierce with this for all of Ireland, starting about mid-afternoon SSW 40-60 mph and possibly rising to SW 50-80 mph later on. Then there's a blast of colder strong westerly winds on Friday.

Worth following to see if this forecast storm holds on later runs.

chalkie

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The 00z GFS and ECM agreed on the potential for a major windstorm across Ireland and the southern UK late Thursday and Friday morning, and the 06z tends to confirm this.

Worth following to see if this forecast storm holds on later runs.

Indeed, MTC.

A very "fluid" period of weather coming up with a succession of depressions on the way. The returning cold doesn't seem to be as deep until the weekend but it's impossible to forecast that far ahead with the day to day changes we're seeing.

One point I'd make is the fact that there was noticable damage in some areas NOT impacted by the worst of the winds over the weekend doesn't bode well if even stronger gusts manifest later!

A stream of strong storms and heavy rain will only go to weaken the foundation of many trees - it won't take much to bring them down if this continues.

Thanks for the heads-up, MTC.

Joe

nacho libre

met eireann make no mention of a storm on Thursday

met.ie
An unsettled, wintry week ahead. Tuesday night: The heavy wintry showers will die out and frost will form in many areas leading to some icy stretches. Wednesday: A cloudy, windy day with outbreaks of rain, heavy and persistent at times. Milder for a time with temperatures rising to between 9 and 12 degrees. Becoming cold again Wednesday night with clear spells developing and frost with some icy patches. Thursday: A cold, bright blustery day with sunny spells and passing heavy, wintry showers. Frost and icy patches Thursday night. Friday: Continuing cold with sunny spells and wintry showers generally. However there is a risk of some heavy showers with a possibility of significant accumulations of snow. Weekend: Cool and blustery with sunny spells and passing rain or hail showers.

chalkie

nacho libre wrote: »

met eireann make no mention of a storm on Thursday

.

Not a surprise really. This is a GFS model feature at present and Met Eireann make use of the ECM as a first guess and then the HIRLAM system for more detailed forecasts out to 48 hours.

If the ECM picks up on what GFS is showing then you may expect to see it mentioned later tomorrow. Having said that, ECM wins when it comes to the model comparison with GFS so let's not bet on it!!!

Joe

M.T. Cranium

The 12z models continue to show this storm potential, and the track has shifted slightly to the south taking the low across the northern third of Ireland on Thursday night. This would imply the strongest winds to be felt along the southwest and south coasts, but this shift may become a trend taking the low even further south. At this point, with 72 hours to go, the best hope of escaping strong winds would be a southward shift to a track that runs along the south coast, I can't see it going any further south than that, but on the other hand, these wobbles are normal from run to run and the trend may well drift back north again later.

Strong winds of less intensity seem to continue for several more days and colder air is pulled in at times, especially Sunday, when the wind direction looks to be WNW.

Another trend to watch is that the late Wednesday to early Thursday wind event is being shown a little stronger on the 12z runs.

With regard to Met Eireann forecasting this, I would imagine they will mention it when they feel that it is more or less certain, to avoid any unnecessary concern in the general public, most of whom can only really prepare for a strong windstorm the day before it is due to arrive.

munsterlegend

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The 12z models continue to show this storm potential, and the track has shifted slightly to the south taking the low across the northern third of Ireland on Thursday night. This would imply the strongest winds to be felt along the southwest and south coasts, but this shift may become a trend taking the low even further south. At this point, with 72 hours to go, the best hope of escaping strong winds would be a southward shift to a track that runs along the south coast, I can't see it going any further south than that, but on the other hand, these wobbles are normal from run to run and the trend may well drift back north again later.

Strong winds of less intensity seem to continue for several more days and colder air is pulled in at times, especially Sunday, when the wind direction looks to be WNW.

Another trend to watch is that the late Wednesday to early Thursday wind event is being shown a little stronger on the 12z runs.

With regard to Met Eireann forecasting this, I would imagine they will mention it when they feel that it is more or less certain, to avoid any unnecessary concern in the general public, most of whom can only really prepare for a strong windstorm the day before it is due to arrive.

don't ever really remember preparing for a windstorm in ireland! maybe a hurricane if forecasted..

billy the squid

munsterlegend wrote: »

don't ever really remember preparing for a windstorm in ireland! maybe a hurricane if forecasted..

wouldnt farmers have to put their cows and sheeps into sheds during severe weather. think that is what he means by preparing for a wind storm.

M.T. Cranium

For the time being, cancel the alert ... the GFS and ECM now agree that this wave will take a southerly track into the Channel and miss Ireland. Just some moderately strong SW winds on Wednesday to deal with now.

Could change again, I suppose, but if not, this thread can expire safely.

It's now going to be a "Channel low" but the potential for snow looks marginal for Ireland, perhaps a bit better on higher ground in southern England on Friday.

darkman2

Aye - you were right to draw attention to the possibility Roger. Looked interesting for a time but then so did this Atlantic PM period. In fact the main issue may be rainfall amounts and indeed whether sleet or snow might occur in some areas. Southeast looks most at risk of heavy rain for a time.

M.T. Cranium

Now the GFS is developing this system again, on a faster timetable, so that it misses Ireland to the south but hits southern England with some strong winds on Thursday. Meanwhile, there's quite a deep low well to the north that could bring Donegal and perhaps Mayo some strong gusts from the west late Thursday. Most of Ireland is in a col between the two lows for much of the day on the 00z GFS run. Since it keeps changing, it may continue to evolve into something ... another model (GEM) is hinting at a strong low south of Ireland by late Friday, another remote chance for snow that, well, ya never know. At least I don't.

Big Tone

That storm with winds of over 90mph skimming over Biscay on course for southern France, tracing Med over Corsica and eventually into Adriatic.

Good call Cranium.

Hal1

Just been chart watching , and it seems that Thursday evening will have heavy rainfalls. There's a low front at gfs T+93, it makes progress eastwards on Thursday.

Supercell

I think I better close this now as M.T Cranium was referring to the storm that eventually tracked further south and wreaked havok over France rather than another one next week.