Oil price predictions for the next decade

boomshackala

Thought I'd start off a new thread after reading Derry's comments below in the thread about ulreacapacitors. I'm especially interested in this as I'm dependent on high energy prices for the viability of a new startup (energy efficiency)

Some of my observations / theories
World demand is increasing as the worlds population is 6 billion around 1 billion westerners, but with the BRIC countries the middlecalss is expanding fast
-Western demand had being falling and is set to continue to fall even after a resumption of economic expansion
-Despite OPEC saying they are cutting production, many opec countries like Venezuela need to sell more oil and will be incentivised to cheat the cartel restrictions
http://seekingalpha.com/article/111262-despite-recession-oil-demand-and-prices-will-rise
- I see Derry asserts in another thread that big oil wants to depress oil prices to kill alternatives

This is a truly contraversial view that deserves some debate

What about Hubbards peak Derry?
Surely if big oil knows theres alot of oil there that info would be in the public domain. I mean there are alot of informed and intelligent people talking about it, and they're all saying we're at peak oil
Having said that, I can see electric cars being **** cheap to run, widespread availability of both tech and fuel will have to put a natural roof on oil prices and demand
I also understand that the western governmant business model depends on tax revenue from oil powered vehicles. How will they tax your wind powered elec car?

Do you think we are destined for a decade of low oil prices?

Quote from Derry:



As the price of oil falls futher down probably stay at less than $50 dollors a barrel for ten years alot of projects will be in troble unles governements make oil a high priced item to make alternitives attractive

But the regime is swimming in anglo sh!te so we can probably kiss goodbye to altenitives to oil as they wont be suitably cheap eneogh .The Greens are up sh!te river without a paddle with the cutting back on bus service so it looks like goodbye greens .

God how I hate how the oil companies always win becasue they fool all the greens with dude the oil is running out stuff when we swimming in the crap

Until oil is seen as the enemy to society as it dictates terms with the help of the kickback regime we will drive cars spewing out toxic fumes for another 100 years

Forget greenhouse gasses that another invention from the nuclear power industry

Only taxxing the crap out of oil and making bio fuel and other alternitives will remove ROI from the enslavement and clutches of the oil barons who probably own the ROI gaff anyway


Forget Obama doing anything as the oil companies opwn the USA gaff so he will fiddle and talk as more oil takes over the USA and everybody there goes back to gas gusselers


Its looks like only germany will have electric solutions so if your a wanne be green type might as well feck off to there as the regime here will pump oil down our gullets for the next hundred years as that where the kickbacks are

Derry

Heroditas

boomshackala wrote: »

I'm dependent on high energy prices for the viability of a new startup (energy efficiency)

Energy efficiency shouldn't need to depend on high energy prices - it's a winner anyway, particularly when it's held up against the profit magin a particular company makes.
That'll show the true value of energy efficiency - not the fuel cost

I take it you are going to go into the energy efficiency business, i.e. advise companies how to cut back?
What are you going to offer companies that many of the bureaus and experts aren't already offering out there? What innovation are you going to employ?
I'm genuinely interested.

boomshackala

If theres an investment required, such as a motor speed controller, the ROI is dependant on the energy price. Granted Elec prices are not varying much but oil and LPG are. I've been in the industry for the last 3 years and saved clients millions of Euro already, but the savings are much less now, which is putting a real damper on my income!

Heroditas

There's some very intense lobbying at the moment to make proper grants available for projects such as these. Hopefully we may hear something concrete by the end of the year.

boomshackala

Just to answer your earlier question, I'm not sure about the niche yet, I'm still in the market research phase, but I'll most likely continue to be invloved in helping people reduce energy costs

boomshackala

Any idea who's doing the lobbying and what they're looking for?
At the moment the gov:
-Will pay for your energy audit (SME's)
-You can write off certain energy saving devices in 1 year
- Pay a grant for renewable or energy saving heating and power retrofits

Heroditas

boomshackala wrote: »

Any idea who's doing the lobbying and what they're looking for?
At the moment the gov:
-Will pay for your energy audit (SME's)
-You can write off certain energy saving devices in 1 year
- Pay a grant for renewable or energy saving heating and power retrofits

"Other" electricity providers - i.e. not the ESB.
They would like to see something similar to the NI grant scheme where the money is doled out to the providers to then pass on to their customers on certain schemes - e.g. high bay lighting, VSDs etc...

AngryHippie

As long as the govt. is getting away with the current rates of duty or whatever category they put the oil tax under, things will not change, Our only natural resource is Natural gas, which was subtley sold off by Noel Dempsey before anyone noticed, so I wouldn't see any major changes in energy policy as forthcoming until the mistakes of christmas past are acknowledged and attoned for.

derry

If you look around at other sectors you get a differnt piture than the oil peakers want you to see
one small example

http://www.iata.org/NR/rdonlyres/F650ECE5-46FF-4C17-8657-D14BBF3B5820/0/Outlook_oil_fuel_medium_term_Oct08.pdf


secction quote shown for legitimate education requirements

iata.org wrote:

IATA ECONOMIC BRIEFING OCTOBER 2008
MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK FOR OIL AND JET FUEL PRICES
Key points:
�� The rise in oil prices has not been because of ‘peak oil’. Known reserves would last a further 44 years at current rates of consumption with no further discoveries.
�� Much of the rise and subsequent fall in oil prices during 2008 seems to have been driven by a futures market ‘bubble’ not any change in fundamentals, though the rise up to 2007 can be explained by real underlying changes.
�� One key change has been a sharp rise in the cost of finding and extracting oil from new fields. The doubling of oil prices from 2003-2007 can be explained by increased production costs, which is now estimated at $80-90 a barrel.
�� In addition supply-demand conditions have tightened over the same period producing a ‘scarcity’ premium on oil prices over and above the cost of production.
�� OECD oil demand is now falling but this is more than offset by strong Chinese and other developing country demand. On the supply-side stable or falling non-OPEC oil production is increasing the market power of the OPEC cartel. Saudi Arabia needs $60 a barrel oil prices to cover its budget but would fear substantial demand destruction if prices persisted much above $100 a barrel in real terms.
�� Economic weakness in 2009 is expected to weaken both oil market supply-demand conditions and further deflate the futures market ‘bubble’. In the medium term we expect oil prices to remain above production costs at $100 a barrel in 2008$.
<snip>
The world is not running out of oil yet
The rise in oil prices has not been because of ‘peak oil’, the idea that we are fast running out of oil. Last year oil reserves stabilized as new discoveries matched consumption. If no more oil was discovered and we continued to consume at a rate of 85mb/d known oil reserves would still last over 40 years until 2052.

These guys IATA (International Air Travel Ass. basically the big airlines )for example are very dependent on the future prices of oil products and have to decide things like do they spend €250,000,000 on buying a large plane like a Airbus ~800 seater A380 and over twenty years make a profit

I suspect thier numbers are slightly wrong in too much demand and not enough supply .The general trend is price of oil drops a lot and over ten years stays low and flat lines and sudenly spikes again. Unknown to us plebs the oil companies suddenly find unknown reserves or find a field has more than first projected and ensure supply and demand are matched for ten years and then engineer a price spike .Cheap oil for ten years keeps alternitives out and ensures bumper profits every decade

The only way the Alternitive fuels or alternitive energy can survive is to copy the Brazil model where oil and gas get taxxed to keep their costs higgher than alternitives .Its vital that ROI follow the proven Brazil model that includes Bio fuels or bio energy and other alternitives so that when the next oil spike comes we are largly immune from the oil companies gouging methods .However that requires the regime to kick the oil companies out of the gravy train bed that the oil companies have ensured exist.

So forget fighting the oil companies with the oil is running out dude or peak oil or CO2 crap.Its simple Oil companies rule as they control the energy tap.Remove the grip Oil companies have on energy with other solutions and our economy becomes truely independent from these SOB

WE in ROI need to shut down all oil and gas exploration as these will just be carrots to the donkeys regime and the profits will just exit ROI anyway and when we run out of oil or gas we will just get the bill for cleaning up the mess and have no alternitives to take up the slack.

Anyway most all fossil fuels seem to cause a lot of polution which alternitves do not seem to make on anything like the same scale

Time to wake up and smell the coffee

Derry

Macha

It's true there are a lot of factors in the price of oil apart from just supply. Strength of the dollar, demand, taxation, OPEC, national policy, EU policy.

The EU wants 20% of energy to come from renewables by 2020 and also want energy efficiency to increase by 20% so your start-up would still do well. And they also say that buildings are the easiest place to achieve this increased efficiency (if that's the sector you're looking at..) Transport is the other biggie, but more difficult to address

Just on the peak oil thing, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency have stated that they see peak oil as happening around 2020. And this is an organisation that scoffed at the peak oilers. Actually, they publish a World Energy Outlook report that might be worth the investment, although it's main findings have probably already been reported on.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/video/2008/dec/15/fatih-birol-george-monbiot