Denman - Grand National

Colonel Sanders

Major move for Denman in the Grand National market. 10/1 best price. Has been matched to a decent few bob at 5/1 on betfair and to pennies at 1/100 believe it or not

Has Nicholls made any comment about plans to run him? If my maths are correct it'll only be 22 days after the Gold Cup.

kenco

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Major move for Denman in the Grand National market. 10/1 best price. Has been matched to a decent few bob at 5/1 on betfair and to pennies at 1/100 believe it or not

Has Nicholls made any comment about plans to run him? If my maths are correct it'll only be 22 days after the Gold Cup.

I noticed this recently and was surprised. Its a big ask as I assume he would be off 12st and giving a lot away to more specialist National horses.

rynners

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Major move for Denman in the Grand National market. 10/1 best price. Has been matched to a decent few bob at 5/1 on betfair and to pennies at 1/100 believe it or not

Has Nicholls made any comment about plans to run him? If my maths are correct it'll only be 22 days after the Gold Cup.

Harry Findlay has suggested he'd like to go for it. Nicholls said he'd consider it (i feel it's a diplomatic response to an irresponsible statement by an owner). If he does run most of the field would have to run from out of the handicap.
sheer sillyness to run him in the national. Seriously doubt it will happen.

Bluetonic

Nicholls had confirmed he is considering it once again, whatever that means. no reason not to run him if he only has one run prior to the GC.

Champion trainer Paul Nicholls, speaking in his weekly column in the Racing Post, said: "I've been asked several times whether Denman will have an entry in the Grand National and I can put an end to the speculation by saying he will be entered.

"I'm coming round to the idea of running him. The more I think about it the more it makes sense with Denman in his prime. Phil Smith has offered a carrot by reducing the top weight and as Denman is rated 182, the Grand National handicap is going to be very interesting

Every other horse will be left running out of the handicap, bizzare.

dotsflan

i think its pure madness!! if i owned a horse with the quality of denman i wouldnt go near the national you could end up finishing his career!!!! how many horses go to the national and do nothing afterwards!!!

abouttobebanned

There's no way it will happen.

Colonel Sanders

I certainly wouldn't entertain backing him at such a short price ante post. This is a horse who's had heart trouble and hasn't run since it was diagnosed. He will run in the gold cup 22 days before the grand national and if the ground isn't as bad as last year will meet a completely different Kauto Star. He will then be expected to lump 11st 10 around Aintree for 4m 4f?

Fair play to connections if they decide to give it a go but I won't be backing him. Altho if he were to line up I could see him starting a very short priced fav.

Diggy78

Would love to see him a short price favourite in the national as I'd be on anything else. Like most above posters I can't see him running though, to be honest I don't think he'll win the gold cup this year with Kauto going there a bit fresher.

Al12

Kauto may be a bit fresher, but denmans an absolute machine when he's on form. Ruby always gives Kauto a great ride but always paddles the last. We call the national a lottery, therefore it's anyone's race. However, denman can stay the trip.

Al12

dotsflan wrote: »

i think its pure madness!! if i owned a horse with the quality of denman i wouldnt go near the national you could end up finishing his career!!!! how many horses go to the national and do nothing afterwards!!!

You would be made not to run Denman!!However he needs to be eating up in the evening and so fresh he's trying to buck and plunge off his mount in every day work on the gallops. He's probably the nearest national hunt horse that resembles arkle. You can't wrap such a machine up in cotton wool, thoroughbred horses aren't that soft.

cson

It'll leave some headache for the handicapper if Denman does go for it. Not too many horses will be left in the handicap proper.

Diggy78

I agree it'll cause the handicapper a lot of problems but it still cant suit Denman surely. It means there'll be even more horses carrying less than 11 stone to beat!!
2008 Comply Or Die 9 10-9 D E Pipe Timmy Murphy 7/1JF
2007 Silver Birch 10 10-6 Gordon Elliott R M Power 33/1
2006 Numbersixvalverde 10 10-8 Martin Brassil N P Madden 11/1
2005 Hedgehunter 9 11-1 W P Mullins R Walsh 7/1F
2004 Amberleigh House 12 10-10 D McCain G Lee 16/1
2003 Monty´s Pass 10 10-7 James Joseph Mangan B J Geraghty 16/1
2002 Bindaree 8 10-4 N A Twiston-Davies J Culloty 20/1
2001 Red Marauder 11 10-11 N B Mason Richard Guest 33/1
2000 Papillon 9 10-12 T M Walsh R Walsh 10/1
1999 Bobbyjo 9 10-0 Thomas Carberry P Carberry 10/1
1998 Earth Summit 10 10-5 N A Twiston-Davies C Llewellyn 7/1F
1997 Lord Gyllene 9 10-0 S A Brookshaw A Dobbin 14/1
1996 Rough Quest 10 10-7 T Casey M A Fitzgerald 7/1F
1995 Royal Athlete 12 10-6 Mrs J Pitman J F Titley 40/1
1994 Miinnehoma 11 10-8 M C Pipe R Dunwoody 16/1
1992 Party Politics 8 10-7 N A Gaselee C Llewellyn 14/1
1991 Seagram 11 10-6 D H Barons N Hawke 12/1
1990 Mr Frisk 11 10-6 K C Bailey Mr M Armytage 16/1
1989 Little Polveir 12 10-3 G B Balding J Frost 28/1
1988 Rhyme ´N´ Reason 9 11-0 D R C Elsworth B Powell 10/1
1987 Maori Venture 11 10-13 A Turnell S Knight 28/1
1986 West Tip 9 10-11 M Oliver R Dunwoody 15/2
1985 Last Suspect 11 10-5 T Forster H Davies 50/1
1984 Hallo Dandy 10 10-2 G Richards N Doughty 13/1

Only Hedgehunter. I know Denman is class but I cant touch anything giving lumps away in the National.

NewApproach

While I wont get into the should he/shouldn't he run debate just yet, one thing I will say is the weight carrying factor wont be as much a factor for him as it has been for other horses over the years.

For a start the top weight is 11 10 this year as opposed to 11 12 previously, but also the horse is so big that the extra few pounds on his back will not be such a burden to a horse the physical size of Denman relative to most other horses.

It will certainly be very interesting to see what way the handicapper deals with it.

aya14

Unless i'm mistaken he'd be giving ten lbs away to the entire field.
Prospective entries 11-10 Denman
11-0 Exotic Dancer
10-12 The Field

redzerdrog

i taught nicholls fancied some race in france for in after the gold cup

Al12

cson wrote: »

It'll leave some headache for the handicapper if Denman does go for it. Not too many horses will be left in the handicap proper.

Don't worry about the handy capper,the sp will probably be ridiciously short. Paul Nicholls will enter Denman if he feels Denman is in good form regardless how he'll be handicapped. An extra few pounds wound effect a horse thats over 16.2hh in size and stays all day. Sam Thomas can get him around safe

Bluetonic

Al12 wrote: »

Don't worry about the handy capper,the sp will probably be ridiciously short. Paul Nicholls will enter Denman if he feels Denman is in good form regardless how he'll be handicapped. An extra few pounds wound effect a horse thats over 16.2hh in size and stays all day. Sam Thomas can get him around safe

Making a massive presumption there.

Al12

Bluetonic wrote: »

Making a massive presumption there.

Yes, but this is just talk

stretchaq

is there not a £1m bonus if you win gold cup and grand national?

Diggy78

stretchaq wrote: »

is there not a £1m bonus if you win gold cup and grand national?

Have never heard of a special bonus just for these 2 races, it may be the betfair million that you're talking about which involves 3 races, one of which is gone already so it's not open to Denman. I'm not sure though if there is another bonus, don't think so.

stretchaq

thats probably it all rite what was the third king george?

Bluetonic

stretchaq wrote: »

thats probably it all rite what was the third king george?

This was the format this season.

3: Finishing first, second or third in the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November; and

2: Being placed first or second in ANY race at the Cheltenham Festival in March; and

1: Winning the Grand National at Aintree in April

Snoopy Loopy and Exotic Dancer have realistic chances.

Diggy78

cheers Bluetonic, I wasn't sure myself as I knew it had been changed this year but didn't really pay attention, hence my vague answer to stretchaq's question.

Bluetonic

Diggy78 wrote: »

cheers Bluetonic, I wasn't sure myself as I knew it had been changed this year but didn't really pay attention, hence my vague answer to stretchaq's question.

Looks like a bit of a better set up this year to be honest. Snoopy Loopy or Exotic Dancer would certainly need luck to get the Grand National and Cheltenham legs up.

It has been a pretty small club the last few years.

Diggy78

It looks way more difficult to do now I think, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Snoopy Loopy went for the Coral Cup if they have the bonus in mind that is. Bothe he and Exotic can only win the National if Denman i in it though IMO.

00dyel

Sounds like he is running, if this is the case then surely you need to look at aintree specialists that otherwise may have been too high in weights.

Mr Pointment, Simon, Slim Pickings, Butlers Cabin, Comply or Die, Snowy Morning to name a few.

gscully

00dyel wrote: »

Sounds like he is running, if this is the case then surely you need to look at aintree specialists that otherwise may have been too high in weights.

Mr Pointment, Simon, Slim Pickings, Butlers Cabin, Comply or Die, Snowy Morning to name a few.

If Denman does run and jumps cleanly, none of those horses will beat him.

He gave better horses a stone in the Hennessy last year and won on the bridle.

premierstone

gscully wrote: »

If Denman does run and jumps cleanly, none of those horses will beat him.

He gave better horses a stone in the Hennessy last year and won on the bridle.

But the farther you go and the bigger the fences the more the weight becomes an issue, a hennessy and a national are two completely different kettle of fish

btw im not saying he wouldnt win it just pointing out that it would not be a fore gone conclusion and you can be sure if he does run the price will be absolutely redicilous value

Diggy78

gscully wrote: »

If Denman does run and jumps cleanly, none of those horses will beat him.

He gave better horses a stone in the Hennessy last year and won on the bridle.

To be honest I think that's a moot point. He just didn't beat better horses and he'd be racing from a mark probably 20lbs in advance of when he won the Hennessy. Excellent horse but I wouldn't even consider the Hennessy as a reason to back him in the National. He'll definitely face better horses and will be giving them even more weight now.

corny

Maybe someone can clarify this for me. From what i've read and believe if Denman runs off his current mark of 182 and carries 11st 10 that means anything rated below 154ish would be out of the handicap! Is this whats going to happen or are they going to bump him up to 12st 7. Surely having just a small group of the 40 runners in the handicap proper isn't really a good thing for the premier handicap of the year?

Diggy78

Corny,
I think there was talk that he'd be allowed run off about 178, which might end up being close to his mark come Aintree anyway (maybe). But you're probably right, most horses under about 158 ish will be out of the handicap, and that does make it very different as so many previous winners are usually off less than than that. It should make it slightly (big emphasis on the word slightly) easier to get the winner.

NewApproach

corny wrote: »

Maybe someone can clarify this for me. From what i've read and believe if Denman runs off his current mark of 182 and carries 11st 10 that means anything rated below 154ish would be out of the handicap! Is this whats going to happen or are they going to bump him up to 12st 7. Surely having just a small group of the 40 runners in the handicap proper isn't really a good thing for the premier handicap of the year?

2 points, firstly he wont be carrying 12 7 if he runs. 11 10 is the top weight this year if he runs or not and that is set in stone.

Secondly, it might not be a good thing having a large proportion of the field running from out of the handicap, but it is a great thing to have a horse of Denman's ability running in it in the first place. The fact many horses will be pushed out of the handicap is simply an unfortunate side affect of this.

corny

NewApproach wrote: »

2 points, firstly he wont be carrying 12 7 if he runs. 11 10 is the top weight this year if he runs or not and that is set in stone.

Secondly, it might not be a good thing having a large proportion of the field running from out of the handicap, but it is a great thing to have a horse of Denman's ability running in it in the first place. The fact many horses will be pushed out of the handicap is simply an unfortunate side affect of this.

Well thats all about perspective really. The weights come out this month or early next if i'm not mistaken and Denmans participation will make it very appealing for high 150 or 160+ horses to take their chance. Might end up with a grade 1 field on handicap terms which could be very interesting.

Bluetonic

Anyone going?

goodfela

corny wrote: »

Well thats all about perspective really. The weights come out this month or early next if i'm not mistaken and Denmans participation will make it very appealing for high 150 or 160+ horses to take their chance. Might end up with a grade 1 field on handicap terms which could be very interesting.

I agree, it will be very interesting to see if other Grade 1 horses are entered into the race now that it looks like Denman will have an entry.

NewApproach

Bluetonic wrote: »

Anyone going?

Only decided on it yesterday after talking about it for months!

Bluetonic

NewApproach wrote: »

Only decided on it yesterday after talking about it for months!

Not as bad as it used to be, Liverpool has loads of new hotels and a massive increase in accomodation in the last 24 months.

See you there....for the three days

Mont

Anyone know what the story is with Denman this year - why hasnt he ran - i heard he was overweight - if so surely Kauto Star is a great price @ 11-4 for the Gold Cup

NewApproach

Mont wrote: »

Anyone know what the story is with Denman this year - why hasnt he ran - i heard he was overweight - if so surely Kauto Star is a great price @ 11-4 for the Gold Cup

He had a heart problem around September which while rectified kept his out of work for a month or so.

By all accounts he takes an awful long time to get fit being such a big horse so that is the main reason he has been off the track until now.

jossnjuice

Bluetonic wrote: »

Anyone going?

been for the last two years and goin to make it a triple this year......not goin near denamn even if he does run.......character building is my nap of the year to win the national!!!! see loadsa horse people knockin about in a small pub beside the huge hotel just off lime street station....paul carberry was in there two years ago and tom o brien....class during national weekend and ladies day is a sight to behold even though last year it was hailstones for some of the time!!!

admiralofthefleet

he is the fav for the gold cup, paul barber was just saying on atr that if he had his way he wouldnt run him at aintree but he is going in anyway

Bluetonic

No great surprise here, his running was unlikely before his poor performance on Saturday.

Denman misses National
9.29AM 9 FEB 2009

DENMAN will not run in the John Smith's Grand National following a comprehensive defeat for last season's Gold Cup winner in his return to action at Kempton on Saturday.

Connections of the nine-year-old, who was 10-1 favourite for the race with Ladbrokes, have decided not to go Aintree this year.

Trainer Paul Nicholls said: "I met with Paul Barber and Harry Findlay on Sunday night and we decided not to aim Denman at the National.

"I want to concentrate on getting him right for the Gold Cup. I phoned Phil Smith, the handicapper, on Sunday to let him know our intentions and to give him time to adjust the National weights."

Weights for the Aintree showpiece will be unveiled on racingpost.com at 11am on Tuesday.

Bluetonic

Exotic Dancer heads Grand National weights
By Racing Post Staff11.00AM 10 FEB 2009

EXOTIC DANCER heads the weights on 11st 10lb for the John Smith's Grand National at Aintree on April 4.

Jonjo O'Neill's Lexus Chase winner has been promoted to the top of the handicap after PaulNicholls officially scratched Cheltenham Gold Cup victor Denman from the race.

The champion trainer had informed the BHA's senior handicapper handicapper Phil Smith on Sunday night to give him to adjust the weights.

Weights for the John Smith's Grand National

EXOTIC DANCER (FR) 9-11-10 Jonjo O'Neill

MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 8-11-08 David Pipe

SNOOPY LOOPY (IRE) 11-11-05 Peter Bowen

STAR DE MOHAISON (FR) 8-11-05 Paul Nicholls

NOTRE PERE (FR) 8-11-04 Jim Dreaper IRE

NOZIC (FR) 8-11-03 Paul Nicholls

AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 7-11-02 BCharlie Mann

CLOUDY LANE 9-11-02 Donald McCain Jnr

AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS (IRE) 11-11-01 Noel Meade IRE

WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 10-11-01 Mouse Morris IRE

CHELSEAHARBOUR(IRE) 9-11-00 Tom Mullins IRE

IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 8-11-00 Nigel Twiston Davies

SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 9-11-00 Willie Mullins IRE

CANE BRAKE (IRE) 10-10-13 Tom Taaffe IRE

KNOWHERE (IRE) 11-10-13 Nigel Twiston-Davies

ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9-10-13 Carl Llewellyn

COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-10-12 Pipe

GWANAKO (FR) 6-10-12 Paul Nicholls

MONKERHOSTIN (FR) 12-10-12 Philip Hobbs

OLLIE MAGERN 11-10-12 Nigel Twiston-Davies

STAN (NZ) 10-10-12 VenetiaWilliams

BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 10-10-11 Dessie Hughes IRE

HEAR THE ECHO (IRE) 8-10-11 Mouse Morris IRE

ONE COOL COOKIE (IRE) 8-10-11 Charlie Swan IRE

PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 9-10-11 Tom O'Leary IRE

BALLYFITZ 9-10-10 Nigel Twiston-Davies

KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 10-10-10 Arthur Moore IRE

MIKO DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 9-10-10 Robert & Sally Alner

MY WILL (FR) 9-10-10 Paul Nicholls

EUROTREK (IRE) 13-10-09 Paul Nicholls

L'ANTARTIQUE (FR) 9-10-09 Ferdy Murphy

STATE OF PLAY 9-10-08 Evan Williams

BIG FELLA THANKS 7-10-07 Nicholls

MON MOME (FR) 9-10-06 VenetiaWilliams

OPERA MUNDI (FR) 7-10-06 Paul Nicholls

SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-06 Gordon Elliott IRE

BUTLER'S CABIN (FR) 9-10-05 Jonjo O'Neill

HOBBSHILL 10-10-05 Charles Egerton

OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 9-10-05 Charlie Swan IRE

PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-04 Philip Hobbs

REVEILLEZ 10-10-04 Jonjo O'Neill

ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 8-10-03 Howard Johnson

ENDLESS POWER (IRE) 9-10-03 Jim Goldie

FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 11-10-03 Nigel Twiston-Davies

GOLDEN FLIGHT (FR) 10-10-03 Nicky Henderson

L'AMI (FR) 10-10-03 Enda Bolger IRE

SIMON 10-10-03 John Spearing

BATTLECRY 8-10-02 Nigel Twiston-Davies

CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-02 Paul Nicholls

FLEET STREET 10-10-02 Nicky Henderson

MUSICA BELLA (FR) 9-10-02 Francois Cottin FR

CAN'T BUY TIME (IRE) 7-10-01 Jonjo O'Neill

DARKNESS 10-10-01 Charles Egerton

IRISH INVADER (IRE) 8-10-01 Willie Mullins IRE

RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01 Keith Reveley

SILVERBURN (IRE) 8-10-01 Paul Nicholls

SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-01 Ted Walsh IRE

TRABOLGAN (IRE) 11-10-01 Nicky Henderson

ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-00 Peter Bowen

GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00 J Enda Bolger IRE

OEDIPE (FR) 7-10-00 Nicky Henderson

HOT WELD 10-9-13 Ferdy Murphy

KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-9-13 Tom George

BROOKLYNBROWNIE (IRE) 10-9-12 Malcolm Jefferson

CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 9-9-12 John Quinn

CONNA CASTLE (IRE) 10-9-12 Jimmy Mangan IRE

HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12 Jimmy Mangan IRE

PIRAYA (FR) 6-9-12 David Pipe

TUMBLING DICE (IRE) 10-9-12 Tom Taaffe IRE

ARTEEA (IRE) 10-9-11 David Pipe

CERIUM (FR) 8-9-11 Paul Murphy

IDLE TALK (IRE) 10-9-11 Donald McCain Jnr

KELAMI (FR) 11-9-11 Lisa Williamson

ZABENZ (NZ) 12-9-11 Philip Hobbs

ICE TEA (IRE) 9-9-10 Donald McCain Jnr

MALJIMAR (IRE) 9-9-10 Nick Williams

COMPANERO (IRE) 9-9-09 Johnson Howard Johnson

IRON MAN (FR) 8-9-09 Peter Bowen

MATTOCK RANGER (IRE) 9-9-09 Noel Meade IRE

NICHE MARKET (IRE) 8-9-09 Bob Buckler

POMME TIEPY (FR) 6-9-09 Willie Mullins IRE

BAGAN (FR) 10-9-08 Martin Todhunter

BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 8-9-08 Nigel Twiston-Davies

BIBLE LORD (IRE) 8-9-08 Andrew Turnell

D'ARGENT (IRE) 12-9-08 Alan King

DIX VILLEZ (FR) 10-9-08 Paul Nolan IRE

FLINTOFF (USA) 8-9-08 VenetiaWilliams

PATSY HALL (IRE) 9-9-08 Tony Martin IRE

HOMER WELLS (IRE) 11-9-07 Willie Mullins IRE

IN THE LOOP(IRE) 11-9-07 Roy Wilson IRE

KING HARALD (IRE) 11-9-07 Pie Mark Bradstock

LOTHIAN FALCON 10-9-07 Peter Maddison

NADOVER (FR) 8-9-07 Charlie Mann

OULART 10-9-07 Dessie Hughes IRE

PAK JACK (FR) 9-9-07 Richard Phillips

SEYMOURWELD 9-9-07 Charles Pogson

GALLANT APPROACH (IRE) 10-9-06 Charles Egerton

HOOPY (IRE) 7-9-06 Gordon Elliott IRE

NINE DE SIVOLA (FR) 8-9-06 Ferdy Murphy

TOM SAYERS (IRE) 11-9-06 Philip Hobbs

OODACHEE 10-9-04 Charlie Swan IRE

KINGS ADVOCATE (IRE) 9-9-03 Tom Taaffe IRE

DUN DOIRE (IRE) 10-9-02 Tony Martin IRE

LE TOSCAN (FR) 9-9-02 David Pipe

OUT THE BLACK (IRE) 11-9-02 Philip Hobbs

PUNTAL (FR) 13-9-02 David Pipe

SEA DIVA (IRE) 9-9-02 Dessie Hughes IRE

WITHOUT A DOUBT 10-9-02 Carl Llewellyn

YOU'RE SPECIAL (USA) 12-9-01 Ferdy Murphy

ALEXANDERTHEGREAT (IRE) 11-9-00 VenetiaWilliams

EMMA JANE (IRE) 9-9-00 Willie Mullins IRE

MILANDEUX MILLE (FR) 7-9-00 David Pipe

BALLYTRIM (IRE) 8-8-11 Willie Mullins IRE

ROYAL ROSA (FR) 10-8-11 Howard Johnson

SANDHURST(IRE) 9-8-11 Edgar Byrne IRE

LORD KILLESHANRA (IRE) 10-8-10 Colin Tizzard

LYSANDER (GER) 10-8-10 Ian Williams

MALKO DE BEAUMONT (FR) 9-8-10 Alan Brown

PASS ME BY 10-8-08 Suzy Smith

MONTMISERE (FR) 13-8-07 Paul Murphy

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/home.sd?story=91429