Would you buy??

Miss Tequila

a house or a land to build a house?

AARRRGH

Not now. Maybe in 18 months.

johnnyskeleton

Are you asking would you buy a house OR land? or are you asking would you BUY a house or land?

In either case, it depends on the circumstances. I'd buy for the right price.

The_Conductor

Depends what your personal circumstances are, and why you feel the need to buy a house or land on which to build........

Personally- if I needed accommodation, had access to funds, could see myself living in the property indefinitely (i.e. greater than 20 years), could see myself raising children there and being happy there in my old age- totally irrespective of my current circumstances- I'd say go for it.

Personally I'd rather build than buy ready built- particularly in light of the hoardes of builders screaming for work at the moment- but also because you get to build a house to your own personal liking and design. Then again- I've been messing with design software on the Mac for the past 10 years and have a clear idea of what I'd like to build- most sane people might be thrilled to get something in a walk-in state.

A big problem in the market at the moment is the bleak economic outlook. Even public sector jobs look exceptionally dodgy- is it safe to borrow to buy or build, if you can't be sure you'll have a job in 3-6 months time? It probably wouldn't be the prudent thing to do. On the other hand- no-one is buying- so its a buyers market- but prices are falling 1.2-1.4% month on month (already in some places down ~35-40% on their peak late summer '06 prices.

I don't think you'll get a definitive answer one way or the other- other than "it depends".........

S.

Trampas

If you find the house you really want and regret if you don't get it then buy it.

Wouldn't buy for the sake of it.

jetski

What he said. as ive said before, It depends on the house itself or piece of land. There really are some gems begining to show trought the country

With house prices down a third in many cases, plummeting interest rates and the new 5% increase in mortgage interest relief its really quite affordable now to buy a house as everything is in the buyers favour.

I guarantee you here and now when sellers get a whif of the bottom and that could actually be here already you can forget about them taking a further hit on the asking price.


Having said that, there are some terrible little dog boxes being sold for mental money and should be avoided like the clap... if your lucky and your in a good financial situation nows never been a better time to buy

EnoughSaid

Why buy now? What is the point in buying now when property will be much cheaper in a year or 18 months time?

Yes, interest rates are falling but banks will not give out big mortgages like they did in the past and they will ask for a large deposit from now on. Without big mortgages property will not sell at high prices so vendors will have to reduce prices further.

We are also entering a very big recession (perhaps a depression), probably the worst since the 1930's. Who in their right mind would want to take on large debts (mortgage) in a recession? People loose jobs in recessions and this reduces demand, confidence and general economic activity so it is best to steer clear of debt if you possible can.

zeus faber

I am in similar situation,had sale agreed on a property a few months ago, I was advised not to buy but hold out and see what happens,with rent coming down and seeing the amount of available property on the market heading into what could be a long recession,hold on to your capital thats what i have been advised. I think I will wait and see what happens.

321654

Im giving it serious thought now too. Im sick of not being able to do home improvements of my own. Magnolia sucks. And i want to put up some pictures and some bookshelves, - to name but a few things that i have on my mind, stuck inside with a broken leg. And i wouldnt mind being able to do something with the garden either.

I could buy the place im living in and pay a seriously significant amount less on the mortgage than i am paying renting it. And do with it what i like.

And thats based on what interest rates were about 3 months ago. I havent checked lately but will look into it again soon.

DJDC

if your lucky and your in a good financial situation nows never been a better time to buy

Nice one. I refer you to this:

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/the-smart-ballsy-guys-are-buying-up-property-right-now-1047118.html

Unemployment set to break double figures, strong euro killing our export business, a clueless government etc etc. Dont be stupid and get into some serious negative equity, hold your cash and wait for clear signs of a global recovery.

jetski

Right, the general buzz seems to be sit on the fence/hide behind it type thing....

6 months from now well see a bounce of some description. it will be on the horizon or will have began to happen. if you want to get the ultimate bargin you need to be ready...

If you have money and a secure job and want to buy a house.... pick one out make sure it ticks every box imaginable, put in an offer a nice bit below the asking and wait for it to be declined, increase your offer by 5k every 2/3 weeks.

The house you buy might go down a percent or so in the next 6 months but if your thinking smart your getting a house which will be standing in 50 or 100 years.

collectivley people are doing themselfs and everybody more damage by holding out.

depression..... cop on have yea any idea what your on about.

jetski

DJDC wrote: »

Nice one. I refer you to this:

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/the-smart-ballsy-guys-are-buying-up-property-right-now-1047118.html

Unemployment set to break double figures, strong euro killing our export business, a clueless government etc etc. Dont be stupid and get into some serious negative equity, hold your cash and wait for clear signs of a global recovery.

Brendan oconnor is a jackass and that was 2 years ago in case you didnt notice.

jetski

ive been monitoring these type of reports for nearly two full years now and on average there were roughly 180 drops per day, often went over 200......

goto the site today and its down to 52.

http://www.irishpropertywatch.com/index.php

ionapaul

jetski wrote: »

ive been monitoring these type of reports for nearly two full years now and on average there were roughly 180 drops per day, often went over 200......

goto the site today and its down to 52.

http://www.irishpropertywatch.com/index.php

What exactly are you trying to say - that we've reached the bottom? Is this a 'gut feel' kind of thing or do you think that the deepening of the recession will not adversely affect our instinctive love of both owning property and getting into debt?

EnoughSaid

DJDC wrote: »

Nice one. I refer you to this:

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/the-smart-ballsy-guys-are-buying-up-property-right-now-1047118.html

Unemployment set to break double figures, strong euro killing our export business, a clueless government etc etc. Dont be stupid and get into some serious negative equity, hold your cash and wait for clear signs of a global recovery.

Yes, I agree with you. Those "smart ballsy guys" look very stupid now, and anybody who took notice of that will have big losses by now. We are in the same situation now, anyone who buys now will be in negative equity straight away so what is the point in getting into serious debt when we are in a recession?

The asset bubble that was caused by easy credit has burst so there are thousands of unsold empty properties that there is no demand for. Exports are falling, immigrants are emigrating, unemployment is increasing and the national debt is increasing! This is not the time to be borrowing!

krugerrand

EnoughSaid wrote: »

We are also entering a very big recession (perhaps a depression), probably the worst since the 1930's.

What's the source of your prediction?

jetski

ionapaul wrote: »

What exactly are you trying to say - that we've reached the bottom? Is this a 'gut feel' kind of thing or do you think that the deepening of the recession will not adversely affect our instinctive love of both owning property and getting into debt?

Go out onto the m50 or the m1 the roads are till jammers each and every morning... the world hasent ended yet. the point im making is that there are a couple of really nice houses that for sale at great prices. there is value showing at this stage... were over 3 years since the peak dont foget.

EnoughSaid

krugerrand wrote: »

What's the source of your prediction?

1) Ireland is already officially in a recession.
2) Many economists expect the recession to worsen
3) Most economies in the world have now been affected by the downturn
4) Ireland will be affected more than most other countries due to:
a) An over dependence on the construction sector
b) Our biggest trading partners (USA and UK) are also entering a recession which reduces demand for Irish products.
5) Recent currency fluctuations (€ v $ and € v £) make Irish exports more expensive and uncompetitive
6) There is a danger that mulitinationals could pull out of Ireland because it is no longer cost effective to produce in Ireland
7) The public finances in Ireland are worsening so the Government has to increase borrowing. However, as Ireland is in the Euro, it cannot increase it's money supply by simply printing more money to allow inflation to eat away at the debts, like some other countries are doing.

For reference try the following:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jan/01/europe-creditcrunch

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5j9uch9QDg5jtnuh1jLjatAYpER6A

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/our-recession-will-give-way-to-depression-as-leaders-flounder-1574439.html

http://www.forexpros.com/news/interest-rates-news/poll-ireland's-recession-set-to-deepen-in-2009-2405

http://investment-blog.net/2008-2009-depression-is-worse-than-1929-we-cant-create-demand-like-what-we-did-in-wwii/

http://investment-blog.net/a-great-2008-2009-depression/

http://blogs.ft.com/wolfforum/2008/12/how-to-prevent-the-great-depression-of-2009/

johndaman66

smccarrick wrote: »

Personally I'd rather build than buy ready built- particularly in light of the hoardes of builders screaming for work at the moment

In real terms when you get down to brass tax about it would you really get your house built a hell of a lot cheaper smccarick? I don't think so myself and would be of the opinion that overall what you save would be negliable for the same build compared to when prices/ demand peaked in 2005/06. Perhaps I could be wrong in saying this and I do stand to be corrected. Also it goes without saying that your house is the one thing you do want built properly (being the probable single biggest investment you will ever make) and no doubt there are still many cowboys out there. I would think you may get better co-operation from builders now but serious monetary savings? I doubted. I also don't think you should discount the fact that there is probably good deals to be had out there on newly built estates where builders badly need immediate cashflow.

To answer the OP's original question and this is just what I am personally doing. I am holding off for the moment and plan to buy towards the end of 2009 or early on in 2010. The one thing the past few years have thought me is that in general I dont think its very wise to try and predict the bottom/top of the market as a hell of a lot of people loose money/ are left in a situation of negative equity from making such half baked predictions. But all the same I think its mad to buy in a falling market if you can hold off. If we are now at the bottom of the market (which I don't think we are yet) I dont think we will see an significant price gains in the next year if unemployment and emigration are to rise as predicted (call this contradicting my previous statement if you will) In the meantime I will continue to save as much as possible for my buy and hope my job is not going anywhere. All the same late 2009/ 2010 may not be the bottom of the market but we are all experts in hindsight when it is too late. The most important thing for me is that I will only buy when I can reasonably afford to do so given prices/ my savings/ job prospects.

However, as many others have pointed out on the thread it will depend vastly on individuals circumstances as to whether they buy now/ later/ never. One answer will not be the right answer for all.

johndaman66

jetski wrote: »

I guarantee you here and now when sellers get a whif of the bottom and that could actually be here already you can forget about them taking a further hit on the asking price.

I think this may hold true for a certain proportion of sellers jetski but definately not for all. Particularly sellers who have being made redundant and find it difficult to find jobs and with little savings or people who have bought houses in recent years to enter the buy to let market. For many their hands may be forced irrespective of their wishes. Cruel and all as that may seem it may be the reality of the situation.

The_Conductor

It depends really.

There is a shocking amount of property for sale at the moment- and its falling between 1 and 1.5% per month in price. If you factor this into the equation- you probably wouldn't buy at all- as you have a realistic expectation that you could purchase the property down the road for a significant amount less (its a version of the economic paradox of thrift). If you weigh this against the possibility of purchasing your own site, and designing your house from the ground up- versus a purchase that will cost you less down the road- its a difficult call. Do you want to look at the bottom line- what it costs you- or are you willing to put an intrinsic value on the possibility of building your own property- and if so- how do you put a value on it? Different people will obviously value the possibility of building their own property differently.

I do agree with you though- its entirely subjective, and what suits one person- will not suit someone else.......

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

gamer

prices are going down, you are unlikely to save any money by building,unless some1 s offering you a site with outline planning permission in a posh area rathmines ,or your friend has offered you a garden site to build on at a good price.

The_Conductor

daveirl wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Punch Home Design...... Its an old version and very basic- akin to the CAD version- but it does output blueprint equivalents.

Fighting Irish

jetski wrote: »

Right, the general buzz seems to be sit on the fence/hide behind it type thing....

6 months from now well see a bounce of some description. it will be on the horizon or will have began to happen. if you want to get the ultimate bargin you need to be ready...

If you have money and a secure job and want to buy a house.... pick one out make sure it ticks every box imaginable, put in an offer a nice bit below the asking and wait for it to be declined, increase your offer by 5k every 2/3 weeks.

The house you buy might go down a percent or so in the next 6 months but if your thinking smart your getting a house which will be standing in 50 or 100 years.

collectivley people are doing themselfs and everybody more damage by holding out.

depression..... cop on have yea any idea what your on about.

house prices in this country for what you get are still unbelievabily balls

johndaman66

smccarrick wrote: »

It depends really.

There is a shocking amount of property for sale at the moment- and its falling between 1 and 1.5% per month in price. If you factor this into the equation- you probably wouldn't buy at all- as you have a realistic expectation that you could purchase the property down the road for a significant amount less (its a version of the economic paradox of thrift). If you weigh this against the possibility of purchasing your own site, and designing your house from the ground up- versus a purchase that will cost you less down the road- its a difficult call. Do you want to look at the bottom line- what it costs you- or are you willing to put an intrinsic value on the possibility of building your own property- and if so- how do you put a value on it? Different people will obviously value the possibility of building their own property differently.

Speaking from my own point of view, I live in the country with my folks presently and commute to work in the city on a daily basis (circa 2 hours driving daily). Although I would ideally rather live in the country and enjoy the associated relative privacy it wouldn't bother me so much either way, countryside or city. However when you take out the two hours spent commuting on a daily basis you could immediately argue that I will be enjoying a better standard of living. Also as I work in a relatively densely populated area with much industry so there is a much better possibility of renting out a room or two as may be needed if I buy in the city. As such I don't think self build would be a realistic proposition if I wanted to live in close proximity to work/ rent out rooms (which I may have to). For these reasons I would place little emphasis on intrinsic value in my immediate case and need to take a more realistic approach. Thats not to say that intrinsic value would not be of more importance to the next man (or woman). I am relatively young yet but as I get older (assuming I will buy and am still alive and kicking!) and have paid of a good deal of my mortgage I may be in a better position to make a move with more emphasis based on intrinsic value. The personal value I immediately would put on a self built home (or any other home for that matter) is one that I can reasonably afford while maintaining a reasonable living standard and that is adequately comfortable and spacious for my needs, within reasonable distance of work and in a good neighbourhood. Again thats just my own take on it and as you point out the next person may have different expectations or place different levels of emphasis on the afore mentioned values.

On a side note to this I will also mention that I had a cousin who went down the self build road in recent years based on a friends recommendation. It would now appear that there are structural defects with the house. There are still cowboy builders out there and you can be unlucky so sometimes self build is not a very safe option no doubt.

Miss Tequila

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Are you asking would you buy a house OR land? or are you asking would you BUY a house or land?

In either case, it depends on the circumstances. I'd buy for the right price.

i meant OR

Raskolnikov

Only buy what you can afford. That means you should have at least a 10% deposit. The term of the mortgage should not exceed 30 years. The repayments should not exceed 35% of a single income. You should be satisfied that you could live in the property for at least five years.

gamer

prices are going down, you are unlikely to save any money by building,unless some1 s offering you a site with outline planning permission in a posh area rathmines ,or your friend has offered you a garden site to build on at a good price.you could do a self build,ie hire a blocklayer team,plasterers,sparks etc if you have time to project manage building a house.

jetski

smccarrick wrote: »

There is a shocking amount of property for sale at the moment- and its falling between 1 and 1.5% per month in price.

How did you come up with 1 to 1.5% ?

Yous are all saying the price of houses is dropping like mad.... where are yous getting this from? have a look at irishpropertywatch.com ?

killbillvol2

jetski wrote: »

How did you come up with 1 to 1.5% ?

Yous are all saying the price of houses is dropping like mad.... where are yous getting this from? have a look at irishpropertywatch.com ?

According to that website average price for a 3 bedroom house has dropped by over 9% in the last 12 months. That's just a national average, I'm sure it's more and less pronounced in different counties.

Much more relevant is that 64% of properties have been on the market for over 6 months and the average time on the market is now 8 months.

Prices are irrelevant if nothing is selling.

jetski

That doesnt answer my question

The_Conductor

jetski wrote: »

That doesnt answer my question

Jim Power of Friends First has estimated falls at between 1.1 and 1.5% per month at present. This is contradicted by the Permanent/ESRI index which indicates a cumulative nationwide fall of just over 16% since September '06 (though it does acknowledge that the falls have been accelerating).
The Permanent/ESRI fall is based on asking prices, as opposed to sale prices. The IAVI does have the sale prices- however have refused to release them (as indeed they have also refused to release their report on the property sector which was completed in early September '08).

The data on which accurate reports could be made does exist- but is not in the public domain.

EnoughSaid

killbillvol2 wrote: »

According to that website average price for a 3 bedroom house has dropped by over 9% in the last 12 months. That's just a national average, I'm sure it's more and less pronounced in different counties.

Much more relevant is that 64% of properties have been on the market for over 6 months and the average time on the market is now 8 months.

Prices are irrelevant if nothing is selling.

The prices on that website are asking prices and they therefore only show reductions in asking prices. In reality the sales prices will have fallen much further because the prices that properties will have sold at will be much less than the asking prices. In this country the actual selling prices are not freely available, like they are in the UK.

Blackjack

EnoughSaid wrote: »

In this country the actual selling prices are now freely available, like they are in the UK.

where are the actual selling prices available, and is there a site such as http://www.nethouseprices.com which details the property and sale price?.

EnoughSaid

Blackjack wrote: »

where are the actual selling prices available, and is there a site such as http://www.nethouseprices.com which details the property and sale price?.

Sorry, that was a typo..."now" should have been "not". I have now corrected it. Sorry to raise your expectations! That information would be very useful but it seems that the VI's do not want this to be made public.

Blackjack

EnoughSaid wrote: »

Sorry, that was a typo..."now" should have been "not". I have now corrected it. Sorry to raise your expectations! That information would be very useful but it seems that the VI's do not want this to be made public.

That's a Bummer.

I wonder does the land registry or its equivalent hold or release this info?.

Firetrap

I don't think so. It seems to suit the powers that be to keep us all in the dark as to what houses are actually selling for (as opposed to the asking price)

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

The_Conductor

Blackjack wrote: »

That's a Bummer.

I wonder does the land registry or its equivalent hold or release this info?.

The IAVI have the data, but are unwilling to release it, as they feel it would cause further problems in the housing market.

spockety

smccarrick wrote: »

The IAVI have the data, but are unwilling to release it, as they feel it would cause further problems in the housing market.

"Jesus, if they're not releasing the report it must be shocking! No way am I gonna buy now!"

Yeah, way to help the market...

You would think that the IAVI would be thinking "a percentage of something is better than a percentage of nothing" at this stage....

johndaman66

Regarding making offers for houses and taking into account the current economic conditions/ outlook what would be considered reasonable/ unreasonable? For example I came across the below on Irish Property Watch

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=405053

The property was uploaded onto daft on the 14th of September, 2008 at 259,000. The price was dropped to 249,000 on the 21st of September and further dropped to 240,000 on the 16th of November. As such I am thinking the property is generating little interest or the seller although perhaps testing the market is eager for a quick sale. In this case would an offer of 200,000 be completely unacceptable and way too low or would it be a good starting point. On the other hand would an offer of 200,000 perhaps be too high? Not buying yet myself and just merely using this one as an example. What are yer thoughts on this folks?

Also does anyone find daft is not a fantastic site. It would appear to me that the same photos are used for different properties and incorrect photos are used. For example photos of semi detached houses are in for properties described as terraced. Are there any better sites out there?

The_Conductor

johndaman66 wrote: »

Also does anyone find daft is not a fantastic site. It would appear to me that the same photos are used for different properties and incorrect photos are used. For example photos of semi detached houses are in for properties described as terraced. Are there any better sites out there?

In all fairness to the folk in DAFT- the photos are those which are supplied by the estate agents/auctioneers/private sellers- if the incorrect photos are either uploaded or duplicated elsewhere- for the most the fault does not lie with DAFT. If you look at the likes of myhome.ie- duplication of photos for multiple properties seems to be rife (along with many examples of appalling photography )

Re: what to offer? Its already been reduced a few times- which indicates a lack of interest in the property. In such a context an offer 15-20% below the asking would appear to be a reasonable course of action. You may get it for less- but its as likely that the seller would tell you to take a flying leap.

It would be helpful prior to making an offer if you found out what the position of the seller is (e.g. if its an executor sale or a developer sale- they are far more likely to bite a low ball offer than someone who hopes to trade up and buy elsewhere).

S.

Blackjack

smccarrick wrote: »

In all fairness to the folk in DAFT- the photos are those which are supplied by the estate agents/auctioneers/private sellers- if the incorrect photos are either uploaded or duplicated elsewhere- for the most the fault does not lie with DAFT. If you look at the likes of myhome.ie- duplication of photos for multiple properties seems to be rife (along with many examples of appalling photography )

Have to say the quality of some photos is shocking - if you're interested in getting people in to look at your home that's for sale, then at the very least give the place a good tidy. How people expect to generate interest when the place is like a kip when the photo's are taken I'll never know.

CyrildoSquirrel

I was going to buy last year. Very glad I didn't now!

321654

Blackjack wrote: »

Have to say the quality of some photos is shocking - if you're interested in getting people in to look at your home that's for sale, then at the very least give the place a good tidy. How people expect to generate interest when the place is like a kip when the photo's are taken I'll never know.

Daft is the poor cousin when it comes to houses for sale. Myhome.ie is leagues ahead of them.

However, Daft cant be beaten for renting.

ntlbell

What are the totals for sale between myhome and daft?

how many are duplicates etc?

I never knew there was such a big difference

any stats?

johndaman66

321654 wrote: »

Daft is the poor cousin when it comes to houses for sale. Myhome.ie is leagues ahead of them.

Dunno would I agree. There certainly seems to be more houses on Daft...Well where I'd be looking to buy (in Limerick city). Perhaps this is not the case in other parts of the country though. Myhome.ie may well be better at not posting incorrect pictures (based on my quite narrow search).

Something tells me though that neither of them can compete with calling to the estate agents. I have drove past quite a few houses with for sale signs up in recent weeks and not a sign of them on either Daft of Myhome.ie. No doubt that may be simply due to the fact that estate agents don't provide either Daft or Myhome.ie with all properties for sales in their dealings

Blackjack

321654 wrote: »

Daft is the poor cousin when it comes to houses for sale. Myhome.ie is leagues ahead of them.

However, Daft cant be beaten for renting.

Not sure there is much of a difference with the Photos to be honest, you can often see the same on both.

Who normally takes these, is it the EA or the seller?.

In all fairness, they can be gash at times.

The_Conductor

Blackjack wrote: »

Not sure there is much of a difference with the Photos to be honest, you can often see the same on both.

Who normally takes these, is it the EA or the seller?.

In all fairness, they can be gash at times.

Myhome.ie tends to be estate agents, Daft tends to be private individuals (a generalisation- but a pretty good assumption).