Do you think online and live poker

Paul Spillane

will suffer during the recession and if you do, in what way will it effect both ? Lot of debate at where i work as to which way things will go, very interested in your views.

jack90210

Two ways of looking at it:

1. People have less money so less poker.
2. People have more time on their hands from being unemployed so more poker.

Either way I think it means less fish as the people in 1. would have been casual players and the players in 2. will get better as they play more.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

hotspur

The literature is clear - gambling is an elastic product. I don't think there is any research on the elasticity of poker specifically. If I had my guessing hat on...[gets guessing hat from the wardrobe]...I would suggest that live poker will suffer more than online poker.

All forms of going out will pretty much suffer in these end of days, but it affects staying in activities less. Pubs will suffer but off-licences will be fine. Since we all know online poker isn't *real* money, and people will be staying in more and thus have more time to play I think it will affect online poker considerably less.

However we can look forward to more problematic play from certain individuals. Financial trouble is positively correlated with increase problematic gambling from those who are prone to it. Unfortunately for the poker industry as far as this is concerned it will not help ease their plight as it will with problematic gamblers of other games as they are not the beneficiaries of the money lost. They still just get the rake as other players mop up the few people on life tilt.

The economy has already hit places like Vegas very hard this year and has had massive repercussions. You know things are dire when Las Vegas Sands nearly filed for bankruptcy a few weeks ago. Atlantic City is going to be one big bankruptcy resort - the Tropican has already filed for it, Trump's three casinos are screwed after they failed to make interest repayments this month, and two other Atlantic City casinos missed repayments last month. And most of the casino giants are not going ahead with planned projects there or in Macau.

As for online poker players, liquidity so good good now on the major sites at the levels most of us play that even a significant reduction in it will likely not produce much of an effect on game availability. As for the online poker industry itself it will probably mean further mergers and acquisitions though I imagine the main factor there would be due to aspects of the credit crunch rather than falling player yield.

But the huge gambling boom is over for the time being, no question about it. The only thing is that we don't really have any history with which to predict just how large the effect will be on the online gambling industry. Likely come 2010 we will be smashing each other's heads open with rocks, and rudimentary abacuses will be viewed with huge suspicion following the overwhelming success of the great Luddite worldwide revolt of June 2009 which laid waste to all technology. Hang on I better take off this guessing hat it's overheating my head.

phantom_lord

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

It always seemed to me that a lot of the live value was twenty somethings with more money than sense - the kind that would drop in after a night out and lose €50 - €500 without having a clue what was going on. But hey, maybe I'm wrong.

maybe it's because i've never played in the jackpot, but i always thought it was middle aged/old guy types with a large disposable income, everything paid etc, who have either managed to embed themselves in their place of employment (and get overpaid for their skills!) or own their own solid business, basically the type that are less likely to be affected by all this doom and gloom stuff?

mocata

Those guys too are affected by the CC, whether from their suppliers,customers banks,pension funds etc. Only takes one link in the chain to falter to seize up cashflow entirely. One good parallel for poker might be the stock market, as it has had numerous boom cycles. As a bull market is reaching its peak , everyone and their dog become stock brokers/market experts.
For punters, prob mean a slight reduction in volume, and certainly game selection is gonna be more important than ever. For the industry, consolidation is gonna be the buzzword. Keep the customers they already have being a priority, and looking for under-promoted areas to focus their marketing on.
I believe poland is in for a bit of a windfall over the next 2-3, as numerous emigrants are gonna be returning home and spending the money they have saved over the past decade. Plus they have been cleaning out bins for 10 years, so know nothing about the pokersz :P

The Tourist

IMO:

Mortgage payments way down + pressies bought = Bags of poker for Christmas.

moreover,

probability of live poker vs online = function of amount of turkey & wine consumed.

See you there.

pocketdooz

hotspur wrote: »

The economy has already hit places like Vegas very hard this year and has had massive repercussions. You know things are dire when Las Vegas Sands nearly filed for bankruptcy a few weeks ago. Atlantic City is going to be one big bankruptcy resort - the Tropican has already filed for it, Trump's three casinos are screwed after they failed to make interest repayments this month, and two other Atlantic City casinos missed repayments last month. And most of the casino giants are not going ahead with planned projects there or in Macau.

As for online poker players, liquidity so good good now on the major sites at the levels most of us play that even a significant reduction in it will likely not produce much of an effect on game availability. As for the online poker industry itself it will probably mean further mergers and acquisitions though I imagine the main factor there would be due to aspects of the credit crunch rather than falling player yield.

But the huge gambling boom is over for the time being, no question about it. .

Very nice post mate. I've seen in my job over the past 4 weeks all of what you refer to above. Debt payments being missed, covenants being breached, refinancings being arranged, the Treasure Island casino on the strip being sold for v.low price. Vegas is suffering BIG time at the moment, as is AC as stated above.

People used to say that gambling is recession-proof. This is not true. Simply over the past 9 months this has been proved. However - all of these companies were very highly levered and that is the main reason for their problems.

As you said, the industry will come back big time when credit expands again and the economy starts to tick back around. (2010 - 2011 imo)






.

WECpoker

pocketdooz wrote: »

People used to say that gambling is recession-proof. This is not true. Simply over the past 9 months this has been proved.

I have to agree. I'm not sure where these so-called economic "experts" come from who make these statements.

If gambling were recession-proof all the stocks would be down LESS than the market as a whole..not WAY MORE

Anyway, not sure where these economists hang out...but I have been to Vegas durng many of the US economic slowdowns of the past (early 80s - late 80s after market crash and savings and loan debacle- etc) and it is visably less busy even to the naked eye.

SO I think anymore deepening of bad economic times can only be hurtful to Online and Live Poker. Several poker rooms that opened during the poker boom in Vegas have now started closing.

Paul Spillane

hotspur wrote: »

The literature is clear - gambling is an elastic product. I don't think there is any research on the elasticity of poker specifically. If I had my guessing hat on...[gets guessing hat from the wardrobe]...I would suggest that live poker will suffer more than online poker.

All forms of going out will pretty much suffer in these end of days, but it affects staying in activities less. Pubs will suffer but off-licences will be fine. Since we all know online poker isn't *real* money, and people will be staying in more and thus have more time to play I think it will affect online poker considerably less.

However we can look forward to more problematic play from certain individuals. Financial trouble is positively correlated with increase problematic gambling from those who are prone to it. Unfortunately for the poker industry as far as this is concerned it will not help ease their plight as it will with problematic gamblers of other games as they are not the beneficiaries of the money lost. They still just get the rake as other players mop up the few people on life tilt.

The economy has already hit places like Vegas very hard this year and has had massive repercussions. You know things are dire when Las Vegas Sands nearly filed for bankruptcy a few weeks ago. Atlantic City is going to be one big bankruptcy resort - the Tropican has already filed for it, Trump's three casinos are screwed after they failed to make interest repayments this month, and two other Atlantic City casinos missed repayments last month. And most of the casino giants are not going ahead with planned projects there or in Macau.

As for online poker players, liquidity so good good now on the major sites at the levels most of us play that even a significant reduction in it will likely not produce much of an effect on game availability. As for the online poker industry itself it will probably mean further mergers and acquisitions though I imagine the main factor there would be due to aspects of the credit crunch rather than falling player yield.

But the huge gambling boom is over for the time being, no question about it. The only thing is that we don't really have any history with which to predict just how large the effect will be on the online gambling industry. Likely come 2010 we will be smashing each other's heads open with rocks, and rudimentary abacuses will be viewed with huge suspicion following the overwhelming success of the great Luddite worldwide revolt of June 2009 which laid waste to all technology. Hang on I better take off this guessing hat it's overheating my head.

totally agree with everything you say, i wouldnt mind borrowing your exceptionally wise hat.

YULETIRED

hotspur wrote: »

The literature is clear - gambling is an elastic product. I don't think there is any research on the elasticity of poker specifically. If I had my guessing hat on...[gets guessing hat from the wardrobe]...I would suggest that live poker will suffer more than online poker.

All forms of going out will pretty much suffer in these end of days, but it affects staying in activities less. Pubs will suffer but off-licences will be fine. Since we all know online poker isn't *real* money, and people will be staying in more and thus have more time to play I think it will affect online poker considerably less.

However we can look forward to more problematic play from certain individuals. Financial trouble is positively correlated with increase problematic gambling from those who are prone to it. Unfortunately for the poker industry as far as this is concerned it will not help ease their plight as it will with problematic gamblers of other games as they are not the beneficiaries of the money lost. They still just get the rake as other players mop up the few people on life tilt.

The economy has already hit places like Vegas very hard this year and has had massive repercussions. You know things are dire when Las Vegas Sands nearly filed for bankruptcy a few weeks ago. Atlantic City is going to be one big bankruptcy resort - the Tropican has already filed for it, Trump's three casinos are screwed after they failed to make interest repayments this month, and two other Atlantic City casinos missed repayments last month. And most of the casino giants are not going ahead with planned projects there or in Macau.

As for online poker players, liquidity so good good now on the major sites at the levels most of us play that even a significant reduction in it will likely not produce much of an effect on game availability. As for the online poker industry itself it will probably mean further mergers and acquisitions though I imagine the main factor there would be due to aspects of the credit crunch rather than falling player yield.

But the huge gambling boom is over for the time being, no question about it. The only thing is that we don't really have any history with which to predict just how large the effect will be on the online gambling industry. Likely come 2010 we will be smashing each other's heads open with rocks, and rudimentary abacuses will be viewed with huge suspicion following the overwhelming success of the great Luddite worldwide revolt of June 2009 which laid waste to all technology. Hang on I better take off this guessing hat it's overheating my head.

Hotspur, I do hope you are suitably equipped to defend yourself come the great revolution. I also hope the expected 2009 revolt does not happen as it will totally scupper my own planned revolution. You of course shall be spared but ALL chimps will die the ancient Drimnagh death of one thousand kicks in the bollox.

we don't know what is around the corner but i expect some genius to pop his head up with an alternative solution to our dark future. (without the great Ronnie Drew:()

The irish will singlehandedly save the gambling institutions.

Flipz4Rollz

The Thursday night pub tourneys where I live get big numbers and its mostly the people recently unemployed that play with a chunk of their dole money(70euro)

bohsman

I figure loads of Irish casinos will close but when the dust settles the remaining casinos will be busier than they were early in the poker boom 5-6 years ago.