Dollar/Euro exchange rate?

Calibos

I was just wondering guys and gals what the prognosis is for the dollar/euro exchange rate.

I was going to order stuff from the US last summer at the high of 1.60 but never got around to it and then despaired when the dollar strengthened to a much less favourable 1.22

Amazed to discover yesterday that in the space of a week the dollar had weakened back to 1.40 and even in the space of a day it has weakened to 1.43.

Is it going to weaken any further. Will it get to the summer peak/low (whatever its called ) of 1.60 again?

Thanks in advance.

ixus

It's more than likely the dollar will continue to weaken against the euro in the near term. It would strengthen should the ECB make a large interest rate cut in January.

The main reason it rose to 1.60 was that the FED cut rates while the ECB held off rate cuts. When it went down towards 1.20/30 range, it was because the ECB were cutting rates.

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=EUR%20A0-FX&o=&a=W&z=610x300&d=medium&b=bar&st=

The moves in the past few days have been extreme, representative of Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP). Bank of England (BOE) notes indicate that they contemplated cutting rates by more than they did last time, which in turn makes it likely they will cut rates again soon. This means the euro will strengthen further against the pound also.

In short, the euro should strengthen further against $ &£ while weakening against the Yen.

Ixus

NabyLadistheman

Where can I find what price the banks are Euro to the dollar. It's 1.43 now but will I get that tomorrow when I walk into the bank

Sorry if this is a bit of a silly question;)

Baird

Agree with IXUS completely
The dollar should continue to weaken against the Euro and Yen well into the new year.
Trichet is far too conservative it seems to do a 1-1.5% cut in the ECB rate so it will take
time for the Euroland to see rates low enough for the currency to strengthen again.
I see some economists are speculating about a rate of 1.80 in the near term which would
be fun for anyone heading to the States on holidays.

Torresistheman - best option is to use a credit card, rates are applied up to the minute
so further weakening would ensure you get a better price.

Calibos

Baird wrote: »

Agree with IXUS completely
The dollar should continue to weaken against the Euro and Yen well into the new year.
Trichet is far too conservative it seems to do a 1-1.5% cut in the ECB rate so it will take
time for the Euroland to see rates low enough for the currency to strengthen again.
I see some economists are speculating about a rate of 1.80 in the near term which would
be fun for anyone heading to the States on holidays.

Torresistheman - best option is to use a credit card, rates are applied up to the minute
so further weakening would ensure you get a better price.

Baird,

"The economists speculating about a rate of 1.80..." Are you talking about an interest rate % there or do you mean $1.80 to the euro !!!

I know its not good for EU exporters to the states but by golly would it be good for me ordering stuff from the states. I better start makin' a list so I don't miss out on any bargains like last Summer!!

Re: Credit card. Thats what I intend to do. Judge or find out from you guys when we are at the peak and get the US retailer to debit my card when I shout "NOW!" regardless of whether an item is in stock and ready to ship or 6 weeks away

Baird

Sorry mate i forgot the $ sign, ya i meant $1.80 to the euro.
Peak of the dollar is very very hard to call, whenever you are getting extremely good value
its best to just buy. Getting greedy and waiting an extra month to save €20-€30 could see
you miss out with the speed that currencies are moving these days.

Calibos

Dropping back from a high of 1.46 yesterday to 1.39 today

Baird

Calibos wrote: »

Dropping back from a high of 1.46 yesterday to 1.39 today

Biggest 6 day move in the dxy index ever.
It has to come back somewhat after selling off to the degree it did.
Still see it at 1.50 before we see 1.20 again to be honest.