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Why Not Banks & what you SHOULD Look at - please contribute

  • 17-12-2008 11:40am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭


    I'm posting some of my thoughts on this as there have been too many uninformed posts on bank shares and short term trading in this forum and it really is dangerous unless you know what you are doing.

    I don't claim to know everything and anything about trading, but I have a background in day trading and have been monitoring events reasonably closely since 2006. I won't go into too much detail, but this post should give those who don't have a clue enough incentive to investigate things further before they risk their money.

    All contributions & additional ideas are appreciated. Hopefully it will save some people some money.

    Here it goes:

    I don't know what will happen the banks in the future & that's why I wouldn't touch them.

    Sure, there will be banks in the future, that's a given. But, in what form?
    1.Will they be nationalised?
    2.Will they be recapitalised?
    3.Will there be mergers?
    4.Will they just start lending out at the rate they were?
    Or,
    5.Will they start lending again, but be more prudent and require 20% deposit and the like (more security)?

    These are the only option I can think of off hand.
    1,2 & 5 are unlikelly to lead to a reversion to their previous stock high any time soon. You could be talking 20 years or so, and there are better investments out there.
    3 would lead to one side of the merger having a strong share price, but not as high as the previous highs.
    4 may lead to a recovery, but they really can't lend at those rates again, it's what got us in this mess in the first place. Research mergers & acquisitions.
    5. would take a long long time, given there has to be some major corrections in house prices and productivity in the country.

    There are opportunities to make a quick buck on the banks, but I think it's so risky and uncertain, I just wouldn't touch it.

    I wouldn't touch an individual stock either, unless I had insider information. It's too risky in this climate.

    If you think the economy will recover and stocks are cheap (i don't), buy and ISEQ index tracker. I think there is a way to fall still, but putting some money in now wouldn't be the worst decision in the world. This would spread your risk leaving you less vulnerable to an individual share. if I was doing this, I'd go one further than the ISEQ and look at the Eurostoxx, DAX or CAC.

    Try and understand why government bonds are being bought now? Hint - deflation
    why might gold be worth holding? - inflation, non-fiat currency
    Why is the japanese currency getting stronger against other currencies? - deflation, it's interest rates have been at almost 0 for a long time while others are just heading that way now.
    Why is oil getting cheaper? - deflation, supply & demand
    Why are commodities getting cheaper? - deflation, demand & supply
    Why might the treasury bonds bubble burst and what would happen if it did? - supply & demand, confidence in governments ability to repay debt, return on investment

    Events to study:
    Great Depression
    Weimar Republic
    Japanese Depression

    There really is so much out there that an individual needs to have some knowledge of before they put there money to work.

    There are a couple of regular posters here who know their stuff, I'd appreciate some of your own ideas/analysis.

    All the best!

    Ixus


Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭ixus


    I just thought I'd add some resources I use.

    Websites:

    www.thepropertypin.com
    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/
    www.greenenergyinvestors.com
    http://tickerforum.org/
    http://www.acrossthecurve.com/
    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
    http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/

    Books:

    1.Reminisence of a Stock Operator
    2.Market Wizards
    3.Traders guns & Money
    4.Trend Following

    There are more, but this should suffice.

    Ixus


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 365 ✭✭DJDC


    There are opportunities to make a quick buck on the banks, but I think it's so risky and uncertain, I just wouldn't touch it.

    I wouldn't touch an individual stock either, unless I had insider information. It's too risky in this climate.

    If you think the economy will recover and stocks are cheap (i don't), buy and ISEQ index tracker. I think there is a way to fall still, but putting some money in now wouldn't be the worst decision in the world. This would spread your risk leaving you less vulnerable to an individual share. if I was doing this, I'd go one further than the ISEQ and look at the Eurostoxx, DAX or CAC.

    Idiots take note, some good advice there before you plunge your hard earned savings into and Irish bank share purely because its "so cheappp!".


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7 TheShin


    This was written a couple of weeks ago, looking at reasons to be bullish or bearish on the Irish banks.

    Most of what is in it is still relevant now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,559 ✭✭✭pocketdooz


    You want to be in steady, lowly-levered, cash-generative companies with strong market share, low fixed costs and a focus on the emerging markets of South America, Eastern Europe and the Middle and Far East.

    Ones to look at if you have time and the inclinatation are Fresenius Medical Care - they are the dominant world providers of dialysis machines needed by people with kidney probelms, have annual sales of €7 billion, are the number one or two player in every market in which they operate and have very high (30-40%) and growing margins.

    Solera (audatex) are the number one global provider of software and services which auto insurance companies use to process accident claims. They are present in 50 markets and are growing rapidly in massive highly populated countries whose govt's are only currently bringing in legislation legally requiring their citizens to hold auto-insurance (india and china = 2.5 billion people buying cars and getting insured) They have huge margins, low debt, generate a ton of cash and are expanding around the world on the back of the global insurance companies.

    Liberty Global (UPC in Europe / NTL in Ireland) are the global leader in the provision of broadband, digital TV and on-demand video in some of the most reliable markets in the world (US/Japan/Netherlands) - their business model is utility-like - it is extremly hard for customers to turnoff these services once they have them and are used to them (like electricity/gas etc). Their CEO is on of the best in the business, they generate a TON of cash every quarter and their only problem is what to do with it. Look for expanding margins, more offerings of triple play (internet/phone and tv in one), higher prices due to faster internet speeds etc.

    these are the types of co's that will prosper on the next 1 - 3 years


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 260 ✭✭Baird


    ixus wrote: »
    Try and understand why government bonds are being bought now? Hint - deflation
    why might gold be worth holding? - inflation, non-fiat currency
    Why is the japanese currency getting stronger against other currencies? - deflation, it's interest rates have been at almost 0 for a long time while others are just heading that way now.
    Why is oil getting cheaper? - deflation, supply & demand
    Why are commodities getting cheaper? - deflation, demand & supply
    Why might the treasury bonds bubble burst and what would happen if it did? - supply & demand, confidence in governments ability to repay debt, return on investment

    Just a quick point on some of these
    Agree with the gold idea, it will be at worst a good hedge.
    However on oil and commodities i dont agree that it has anything to do with
    deflation or supply.
    Look at today OPEC cut supply by 2million barrels, the biggest cut in 10
    years and oil falls 6% on the back of the news. To be honest it has nothing
    to do with supply, it is to do with speculation and demand. Demand is
    collapsing around the world and as such liquidity in commodity markets is
    drying up. This means there is less room for speculators to work and volume
    is leaving these markets. Combine this with demand evaporating and you get
    very illiquid markets.
    A look at the baltic dry index (global shipping index) shows a 95% collapse
    inside 6 months. Global shipping of commodities and goods has ground to a
    hault and the declines are only starting to slow recently. Merrills called $25
    a barrel oil yesterday and its looking a distinct possibility. There is only so
    much supply OPEC can remove before they start hurting their own economies.

    As for stock picks going forward i would be looking towards alternative energy or stocks that have been beaten badly recently but which supply aggregates or concrete products in the US. Obama's electoral promises include a huge infrastructure programme and work on alternative energy.
    Also worth a look are highly cash rich companies with low debt levels who
    are market leaders in their sectors such as Microsoft, Cisco etc


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13 Sharehunter


    Hi all,

    A very good thread and quite relevent to me.

    I am waiting to start day trading - some time in the next week- therefore I take onboard what you are saying and also take note of the fact that you are at this for the last 2 years so are 100% up on experience compared to me.

    From what I gather the uptake in online trading accounts in the last 3 months has increased dramatically, presumably because people like myself feel that it is a good time to get in. I have been reading up and reading up to arm myself with as much info as possible but find a lot of contradictory reports out there.

    I suppose my main question / confusion is that being a day trader is it not that important how a share will perform in the long term future but more important how it behave in the very short term ?

    In my 'fantasy' trading that I have been doing in the last 3 weeks I am up €923 with a €10,000 investment. Sounds great I know but I am aware that as soon as you start for real then Murphy starts applying his laws.

    Although all in sundry are saying to stay clear of the Irish banks my aim is to profit on the smaller rise/falls of them. For instance my biggest gain 2 weeks ago was getting Anglo (ya I know) at 0.45 x 10,000 and about an hour later @ 0.42 x 10,000 and sold the lot later in the day @ 0.48.

    Mind you I got stuck with BOI on Wednesday last at 1.04 and didn't shed them till Monday @ 1.09 but still got €296 out of it.

    Now if I ever see something that is too good to be true I know it usually is so with that in mind I try to be as negative as possible with it and poke holes in the scenario assuming the worst. The worst in fairness is that the price goes down so much that it will not recover and throw in a merger or consolidation just to really crucify it and a crappy proposal from the government and bye bye money.

    Am I still missing the point ? .............. Probably but for the life of me I can't see it.

    I look forward to contributing to this forum and also hearing accounts from others.

    Hunter.
    PS. Please dont read this as a contradiction of the original post. It is not, and I am certainly not in a position to do so given my lack of experience.
    I am just throwing my thoughts out there.
    Thanks.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭ixus


    Baird wrote: »
    However on oil and commodities i dont agree that it has anything to do with
    deflation or supply.
    Look at today OPEC cut supply by 2million barrels, the biggest cut in 10
    years and oil falls 6% on the back of the news. To be honest it has nothing
    to do with supply, it is to do with speculation and demand. Demand is
    collapsing around the world and as such liquidity in commodity markets is
    drying up.

    Baird, I agree with you on it being a demand side issue (should have put demand & supply rather than supply & demand?)

    Deflation is a demand issue.

    A post I wrote on the pin at beginning of the month:

    "Oil was at $25 back in '03, hit €17 after Sept 11th, given the heightened level of noise on deflation and the economic data €25 is an easy number to think of.

    I would not be surprised to see it hit the teens next year and single digits if deflation is the scenario that plays out.

    I'm not saying I can predict anything and everything, but the level of mispricing by oil analysts, in the main, has been shocking."


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭ixus


    For instance my biggest gain 2 weeks ago was getting Anglo (ya I know) at 0.45 x 10,000 and about an hour later @ 0.42 x 10,000 and sold the lot later in the day @ 0.48.

    Mind you I got stuck with BOI on Wednesday last at 1.04 and didn't shed them till Monday @ 1.09 but still got €296 out of it.

    Hi Sharehunter, I'm going to pick apart those trades for you. I assume it's a spread betting account.

    When trading, you shouold have a stop loss, or a point at which you will exit no matter what. You can be in a trade for seconds to the whole day.

    With Anglo, I think you got the trade wrong. you thought it was a buy, but clearly it was originally a sell. If you had a 3 tick stop loss, you would have got out of that trade. You held onto the trade, therefore holding onto a loser and resulted in only a gain of 3 ticks.

    Another way to look at it is; if you had entered at 0.42, you could have made 6 ticks. So, either you got your timing to entry wrong, or you bought when you should have sold.

    Day trading generally involves being flat at the end of the day, letting you sleep easy :P.
    You held onto BOI from Wednesday to Monday.

    What this says to me is you have a loss aversion. This is a bad thing. it means you're not willing to take small losses.
    The theory is, cut your losses short and let your profits run. It's counterintuitive I know, but that's the game of a trader.

    I'd urge you to read Market Wizards and Reminiscence of a Stock Operator before you trade live.
    Also, trade small initially, even when you're making money.
    Get used to taking losses.
    Learn a bit about chart analysis.
    Don't risk more than you can afford to lose etc.

    Be confident in your ability to be right (and wrong).

    Ixus


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,152 ✭✭✭Idu


    I suppose my main question / confusion is that being a day trader is it not that important how a share will perform in the long term future but more important how it behave in the very short term ?

    Do you know why certain stocks will react the way they do. What is bullish news and what is bearish?
    In my 'fantasy' trading that I have been doing in the last 3 weeks I am up €923 with a €10,000 investment. Sounds great I know but I am aware that as soon as you start for real then Murphy starts applying his laws.

    Doesnt sound great to me considering the volatility of the stocks you traded and their massive downside risk
    Although all in sundry are saying to stay clear of the Irish banks my aim is to profit on the smaller rise/falls of them. For instance my biggest gain 2 weeks ago was getting Anglo (ya I know) at 0.45 x 10,000 and about an hour later @ 0.42 x 10,000 and sold the lot later in the day @ 0.48.

    Mind you I got stuck with BOI on Wednesday last at 1.04 and didn't shed them till Monday @ 1.09 but still got €296 out of it.

    And today they are trading at 0.84 - you were lucky
    Now if I ever see something that is too good to be true I know it usually is so with that in mind I try to be as negative as possible with it and poke holes in the scenario assuming the worst. The worst in fairness is that the price goes down so much that it will not recover and throw in a merger or consolidation just to really crucify it and a crappy proposal from the government and bye bye money.

    Am I still missing the point ? .............. Probably but for the life of me I can't see it.

    Day trading is extremely difficult at the best of times but especially lately when the moves are so extreme and unforgiving. The BOI trade you list, from my reading, was based on pure luck, ie you were holding it till you turned a profit(no matter how small) which goes against the basics of day trading. Cutting losers is the key to successful day trading IMO and turning a day trade into a long term trade because you are on the wrong side is a recipe for disaster


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13 Sharehunter


    Firstly thank you for the reply Ixus.

    My 'fantasy' trading is just straight share trading and not spread betting. I had a look at spread betting but i'm not too keen on it as the losses seem to have greater potential than regular trading.

    With Anglo my trades were as if I bought at the prices I mentioned and sold at 0.48. This was based on live prices - or as live as Livecharts are but they seem to be bang on.

    I have to admit that yes I have an aversion to losses and while I understand your point I don't see what's wrong in holding out for a better result. Is it not better to wait and try for a better price than just to quit and suffer a definite loss. I am willing to take small losses as I see this as an inevitable part of trading and indeed that I may at some stage get completely stuck on a price or lose everything.
    I'm under no illusions that this may end in a zero balance.

    If I have to wait and not be flat at the end of the day then so be it. OK this may not be the definition of a day trader but I'd rather give myself a chance.
    I should point out that a lot of my thinking is based on a period when I worked in a casino and I have seen the carefull gamblers and the downright reckless. Both may leave the tables with no money but at least the carefull one has tried and usually leaves last.

    Thanks for the advice regarding the reading material I will get onto that.

    Thanks again,
    Sharehunter.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13 Sharehunter


    Janets on clubs

    Thanks for your reply also.

    I 'think' I know how some stocks move and what makes them move but I also have noticed how some seemingly important events seem to be ignored by the stock in question. As for this mornings collapse I can only presume that was mainly as a result of the governments Smart Economy statement. I wont get political here it doesn't do much for the situation we find ourselves in right now. Unless it is a bit of a smokescreen for what will be disclosed about the banks and that is what caused the plunge downwards.
    I realise I am being the bull in the bear market in that I see potential for profit but I would not consider myself bullish about the markets in general.

    "Doesnt sound great to me considering the volatility of the stocks you traded and their massive downside risk"

    Considering where this money has been sitting for the last 5 years €923 is a hell of a lot better than I was getting on a yearly basis. Even considering the fact that at least it was safe as opposed to the markets.

    "And today they are trading at 0.84 - you were lucky"
    I agree and then down to 0.76 but must be honest I would have bought in at 0.76 even though they may not cross the €1 barrier again for a while.

    My aim is not to make a fortune nor is it to lose all but just take a few points here and there. A bit like the spread betting people who just take the one point a day but do it every day.

    I really appreciate the criticism it's better to get a slap in the face here than a whack up the arse out there.

    Thanks again,
    Sharehunter.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭ixus


    ixus wrote: »

    I don't know what will happen the banks in the future & that's why I wouldn't touch them.

    The Anglo news from last night is exactly the reason why i (and the sensible people on here) wouldn't have traded shares in an Irish bank anytime soon.

    There will be more of this sh!t.

    I do hope people will learn (something) from this.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭ixus


    Sharehunter, I haven't the time at the moment to go into the psychology of loss aversion but, it's safe to say you're out of your depth when thinking the way you do.

    Check out the chapter about Van Tharp in Market Wizards. It will give you a better understanding.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,553 ✭✭✭Dubh Geannain


    Hey Ixus, you said you done some day trading for sa while. It wasn't with a company called Reminisence by any chance?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,559 ✭✭✭pocketdooz


    ixus wrote: »
    Sharehunter, I haven't the time at the moment to go into the psychology of loss aversion but, it's safe to say you're out of your depth when thinking the way you do.

    Check out the chapter about Van Tharp in Market Wizards. It will give you a better understanding.

    Also read 'Fortune's Formula' by William Poundstone

    Explains this very well and is an easy read


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 21,981 ✭✭✭✭Hanley


    Why to avoid bank stocks...??

    The banking business!! C'mon like... It's not sexy, it's not hi-tech and it's not exactly innovative (in other words the things that tend to drive capital appreciation).

    When bank gains are accelerating wildly it's probably a good sign that something has fundamentally changed within the business... but it's banking. And it hasn't.

    That should probably set the alarm bells ringing about them being overvalued. Right??

    And now, with no dividends, and no idea what's going to happen in the coming months, it's nothing more than a gamble.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭ixus


    Hey Ixus, you said you done some day trading for sa while. It wasn't with a company called Reminisence by any chance?

    Hi DG. Nope, not there, and would prefer not to say as I don't really want to be identified. It was in the prop trading side of things alright.

    I do know someone who worked there, but don't know much about the place other than it's gone.

    What makes you ask?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,553 ✭✭✭Dubh Geannain


    Just a wild guess. I was familiar with 2-3 day trading companies a couple of years ago. TBH, couldn't recall their names off hand but when I saw "Reminiscence of a Stock Operator" mentioned in your to-read list I just had to ask :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 66 ✭✭Danimalito


    I have to admit that yes I have an aversion to losses and while I understand your point I don't see what's wrong in holding out for a better result. Is it not better to wait and try for a better price than just to quit and suffer a definite loss. I am willing to take small losses as I see this as an inevitable part of trading and indeed that I may at some stage get completely stuck on a price or lose everything.
    I'm under no illusions that this may end in a zero balance.

    Money management as well as setting reasonable stops are /vital/ to being successful at day trading, just imagine you bought Anglo at €18 and kept holding out for a gain :eek:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13 Sharehunter


    Thanks all for the replies it's very appreciated as a newbie to this forum.

    Where do I start.
    I get the impression I have not explained my objective properly or maybe I have but still don't see the problem.....better be the former.

    My concern is not whether a company is doing well or not, either now or in the future, but whether or not it's price will rise from a low purchase price in a very short time. If I only get a +5 then fine. I am not so greedy or stupid that I would be waiting for +20 or +30 although it is attainable.
    C&C would have been nice today but don't know where it came from, morning notes didn't give any leaning to it but obviously it would be an example of a nice days work if you got on it.

    Mine is not to make millions or thousands but a couple of hundred here and there will do rightly thanks. Do this 2 or 3 times a week and I'm happy.

    It doesn't seem logical to me to be flat at the end of the day regardless of the consequences as I would sleep better knowing I am in with a chance the next day or even the following knowing that that particular trade might come good. ( I bold the word 'might' as I know it may turn sour) If I settle for the best price of the day then I may have cut my losses but I have also guaranteed that I have no chance of making good.
    An important point here is that I also believe that one should never chase a loser to the end if it requires you to reinvest .

    ie. buy @ 1.00 hoping for a 1.35 result and when it reaches 1.10 and doesn't look like going further doubling or trebling your investment to get the original result. Bad move.

    Re Anglo at €18 - Fair example Danimalito but I would not have bought at the top. OK who knows where the top is ??? But also if we are at €1 we have only a drop of 100 to zero but at 1800 I get vertigo.

    Funny, a pal of mine has BOI at €17 (long term in fairness) and is telling me I'm mad doing this. I don't think he will see a profit for the next God knows when....10 years anyone ?

    I'm looking at weak stock that has potential to increase in an hour or a day or a week....but not much longer.
    I still have the day job ( I can hear you already) and will be sticking to it but this is my vehicle to either getting a good turn out of my investment or losing what has already been decided is the 'pot'.
    If it's gone that's it.

    I appreciate that this may not be how others do it but nothing is solid state in this game. Blue chips go wallop too.
    Is it not all a bit of a gamble?
    I wouldn't back a horse because it had a nice name.

    I'll keep ye posted and hope it goes well.
    I know the value of money. If I don't work I don't get any and I know what that's like.

    Good luck to everyone for next year.....hope I'm still here.

    Sharehunter.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 66 ✭✭Danimalito


    Sharehunter, if I understand you correctly you're expecting to make a profit by taking many small wins, with the occasional significant loss?

    That implies that you need to be right much more often than you're wrong , when guessing the direction of a share price. Unless you've got a crystal ball, that's not going to work, markets can be brutal and move in unexpected ways.

    Basically, with that system you're gonna win a large number of battles, but you will lose the war.

    I dont want to sound condescending, but I really really belive you need to rethink that strategy before you start trading with real money.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,559 ✭✭✭pocketdooz


    Thanks all for the replies it's very appreciated as a newbie to this forum.

    Where do I start.
    I get the impression I have not explained my objective properly or maybe I have but still don't see the problem.....better be the former.

    My concern is not whether a company is doing well or not, either now or in the future, but whether or not it's price will rise from a low purchase price in a very short time. If I only get a +5 then fine. I am not so greedy or stupid that I would be waiting for +20 or +30 although it is attainable.
    C&C would have been nice today but don't know where it came from, morning notes didn't give any leaning to it but obviously it would be an example of a nice days work if you got on it.

    Mine is not to make millions or thousands but a couple of hundred here and there will do rightly thanks. Do this 2 or 3 times a week and I'm happy.

    It doesn't seem logical to me to be flat at the end of the day regardless of the consequences as I would sleep better knowing I am in with a chance the next day or even the following knowing that that particular trade might come good. ( I bold the word 'might' as I know it may turn sour) If I settle for the best price of the day then I may have cut my losses but I have also guaranteed that I have no chance of making good.
    An important point here is that I also believe that one should never chase a loser to the end if it requires you to reinvest .

    ie. buy @ 1.00 hoping for a 1.35 result and when it reaches 1.10 and doesn't look like going further doubling or trebling your investment to get the original result. Bad move.

    Re Anglo at €18 - Fair example Danimalito but I would not have bought at the top. OK who knows where the top is ??? But also if we are at €1 we have only a drop of 100 to zero but at 1800 I get vertigo.

    Funny, a pal of mine has BOI at €17 (long term in fairness) and is telling me I'm mad doing this. I don't think he will see a profit for the next God knows when....10 years anyone ?

    I'm looking at weak stock that has potential to increase in an hour or a day or a week....but not much longer.
    I still have the day job ( I can hear you already) and will be sticking to it but this is my vehicle to either getting a good turn out of my investment or losing what has already been decided is the 'pot'.
    If it's gone that's it.

    I appreciate that this may not be how others do it but nothing is solid state in this game. Blue chips go wallop too.
    Is it not all a bit of a gamble?
    I wouldn't back a horse because it had a nice name.

    I'll keep ye posted and hope it goes well.
    I know the value of money. If I don't work I don't get any and I know what that's like.

    Good luck to everyone for next year.....hope I'm still here.

    Sharehunter.

    I think this strategy is fundamentally flawed.

    Sharehunter, there are a few things in this post that are underlined and bolded that are the main points that I would disagree with.

    It comes across that you are basically just guessing around and hoping to turn some kind of a profit through luck.

    Is this accurate?

    Where do you get your prices / trading volumes / holders / buyer / sellers etc info ?

    I wish you the best of luck but I think you're in for a rough ride if you carry it out as planned. Do yourself a favour - get William Poundstone's book - Fortune's Formula. At the very least, reading it will delay you going broke.

    Good luck with whatever you do though.




    .


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 863 ✭✭✭Mikel


    Re Anglo at €18 - Fair example Danimalito but I would not have bought at the top. OK who knows where the top is ??? But also if we are at €1 we have only a drop of 100 to zero but at 1800 I get vertigo.

    Heh, a 10% loss is a 10& loss, it doesn't matter if the price is 10 or 10,000 :rolleyes:
    If you succeed it will be pure dumb luck


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 110 ✭✭Bytheway


    pocketdooz wrote: »
    You want to be in steady, lowly-levered, cash-generative companies with strong market share, low fixed costs and a focus on the emerging markets of South America, Eastern Europe and the Middle and Far East.

    Ones to look at if you have time and the inclinatation are Fresenius Medical Care - they are the dominant world providers of dialysis machines needed by people with kidney probelms, have annual sales of €7 billion, are the number one or two player in every market in which they operate and have very high (30-40%) and growing margins.

    Solera (audatex) are the number one global provider of software and services which auto insurance companies use to process accident claims. They are present in 50 markets and are growing rapidly in massive highly populated countries whose govt's are only currently bringing in legislation legally requiring their citizens to hold auto-insurance (india and china = 2.5 billion people buying cars and getting insured) They have huge margins, low debt, generate a ton of cash and are expanding around the world on the back of the global insurance companies.

    Liberty Global (UPC in Europe / NTL in Ireland) are the global leader in the provision of broadband, digital TV and on-demand video in some of the most reliable markets in the world (US/Japan/Netherlands) - their business model is utility-like - it is extremly hard for customers to turnoff these services once they have them and are used to them (like electricity/gas etc). Their CEO is on of the best in the business, they generate a TON of cash every quarter and their only problem is what to do with it. Look for expanding margins, more offerings of triple play (internet/phone and tv in one), higher prices due to faster internet speeds etc.

    these are the types of co's that will prosper on the next 1 - 3 years

    Is that
    Fresenius FME.DE,
    Solera SLH on the NYSE
    Liberty Global Is Liberty Global LBTYA or LBTYK on the Nasdak


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,559 ✭✭✭pocketdooz


    Bytheway wrote: »
    Is that
    Fresenius FME.DE,
    Solera SLH on the NYSE
    Liberty Global Is Liberty Global LBTYA or LBTYK on the Nasdak

    Yes, FME and SLH (also FSE are worth a look too - Fresenius parent)

    But Liberty Global is LBTY and then whatever class of share suits you best is the next letter (A, etc)

    Solera is up 11% latest trading
    Liberty up over 10% since I posted this last week.
    FME holding steady - very good defensive, dividend paying stock.






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