Another system?

rynners

Ok this could be balderdash and don't slate me if it is but I've always had a stinky feeling about this..

I always felt that short priced favourites in the first race of any meeting are always shorter than they should be. My thinking behind this is as follows:

Bookies are smart fellas, they know a lot of punters have little patience when it comes to walking into a bookies and making money. Say a fella has €10 to wager (could be 100, 1000 doesn't matter) well he goes in and sees what will be his likely winners for the day. Along comes the first race and it's a short priced fav (usually a maiden) and the fella is thinking "geez if i throw everything on this fella I can have decent stakes on the likely ones later on", as usual the short priced fav has lost in the 1st and the bookie has taken everything in one swoop.

Key: were he playing a similar priced favourite in the middle of the day with the same amount to wager he probably would have bet €2, €4, €5 but not the ten. So you really fancy istabraq at 6/4 in the 3.10? and denman in the 3.40? well if i put my 10 on donkeyface at evens in the 2 o clock I'll have 20 to wager on istabraq a sure winner and then i'll stick 30 on denman from the winnings to make it a sweet day! In other words is the mug punter caught early by having the first race fav go off shorter than it really should be? (when it's a relative shorty anyway)..

what are your thoughts on this drivvel I've just written?
Stats man (wp) is there any way of running this scenario on your mega softwear? say the rules are: fav in 1st, less than 6/4 does it come out mindbendingly negative per €1 stake?

If anyone gets where I'm going with this and can expand on it better please do..

wb

rynners wrote: »

Ok this could be balderdash and don't slate me if it is but I've always had a stinky feeling about this..

I always felt that short priced favourites in the first race of any meeting are always shorter than they should be. My thinking behind this is as follows:

Bookies are smart fellas, they know a lot of punters have little patience when it comes to walking into a bookies and making money. Say a fella has €10 to wager (could be 100, 1000 doesn't matter) well he goes in and sees what will be his likely winners for the day. Along comes the first race and it's a short priced fav (usually a maiden) and the fella is thinking "geez if i throw everything on this fella I can have decent stakes on the likely ones later on", as usual the short priced fav has lost in the 1st and the bookie has taken everything in one swoop.

Key: were he playing a similar priced favourite in the middle of the day with the same amount to wager he probably would have bet €2, €4, €5 but not the ten. So you really fancy istabraq at 6/4 in the 3.10? and denman in the 3.40? well if i put my 10 on donkeyface at evens in the 2 o clock I'll have 20 to wager on istabraq a sure winner and then i'll stick 30 on denman from the winnings to make it a sweet day! In other words is the mug punter caught early by having the first race fav go off shorter than it really should be? (when it's a relative shorty anyway)..

what are your thoughts on this drivvel I've just written?
Stats man (wp) is there any way of running this scenario on your mega softwear? say the rules are: fav in 1st, less than 6/4 does it come out mindbendingly negative per €1 stake?

If anyone gets where I'm going with this and can expand on it better please do..

Hi mate, I don't spend much time here these days so if you're looking for data, it's best to post on www.letsbet.ie/forum - my username is Hill16 over there.

Unfortunately, one of the things the mega software cant do is look at race times (I wish it could!) - so I've no real way of looking that one up.

rynners

yeah it's kind of an awkward one... and in any case I maybe completely off with my post..thanks anyways.

ziggy

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rynners

ziggy wrote: »

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nah,. am talking about prices of the fav in the first being shorter than it should be..

ok, you could look at it like this, is a 5/4 shot in the first winning with the same consistancy as a 5/4 in the 3rd or 4th? if a 5/4 in the first is say showing 15% strike rate on blind betting and a 5/4 in the 4th is running at 25% strike rate to a blind bet then is are the favs in the first going off shorter (consistantly) than in the later races? You could mention that the earlier races are always lesser quality races than the later ones (most meeting start off with a maiden) but then 5/4 is a reflection of a horse's chance and not of the type of race...

Have short price favs in later races a better strike race than similar priced favs in the first? If so, by how much? and is it worthy of a "leave alone" system?

Morgans

I know what you are saying but to be honest, i dont think the tenner punters in the bookies affect the prices that much - those who want to make their money early rather than anytime during the day. Would be interesting to compare their effect against the money on the exchanges.

I know yesterdays first winner was 7/4f Spic n Span who was backed from 11/4 in. I think there is a neglible or no effect.

A far larger effect is a jockey or trainer who has won two or three earlier on the day and has a horse running later on.

ziggy

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rynners

ziggy wrote: »

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yeah, but are these favs turned over more than the later ones at the same prices? and if they are is it significant and is there a system to be had as a result?

Frankie Lee

rynners wrote: »

yeah, but are these favs turned over more than the later ones at the same prices? and if they are is it significant and is there a system to be had as a result?

I'd say you are spot on.
I think you are right about them being turned over more often and the reason is mainly because they are maidens.
In your typical maiden the favourite is usually a horse that has had a couple of runs and gone close while there is usually a horse in the field who will improve from a moderate first outing or a horse with the ability to win first time out.

While in the later races be they graded or handicaps you are dealing mainly with horses who have good form to analyise and favourites are easier to back.

rynners

Frankie Lee wrote: »

and the reason is mainly because they are maidens.
QUOTE]

ok, now does the price it's laid at reflect the chance of the horse, and if it does then surely the strike percentages should be similar. If not then are they being cut again in the first races of the day?

There could be an element here that could scupper this idea.. that the price reflects the bookies exposure to a loss and not reflecting the chance of the horse...

rynners

question,
does the price of a horse reflect the exposure to risk of the bookies in the race or does it reflect the chances of the horse? I think the former. If that's the case though is the only true reflection of the chance of the horse the opening show?