If Libertas run for election will it harm their opposition to the Lisbon treaty?

Bob Z

I reckon it will. I dont know much(anything) about their policies but i think

1)people who previously voted against the treaty may vote for it if they dont agree with their policies eg IF Libertas emerge as a UKIP type party or Very Catholic People who voted
2)it will allow the other parties to attack libertas instead of defending the Lisbon Treaty.
3) People who may listened to Libertas before might not now if they see them as politicians and they might think their plan all along was to get elected

Eurosceptic2008

I don't really understand what you mean by "harm". Care to explain? If you mean will it damage the no campaign, then no. In fact, I would say their running for election has the potential to redress a lopsided pro-Lisbon bias in the composition of the Irish cohort of MEPs, of which less than 1/6th (2 out of 13) are anti-Lisbon, compared to 54% of the electorate. What I really want to see though is for that balance to be redressed at national level in Dail Eireann. So hopefully they will run there too. Yes - I know there was far more to the no campaign than just Libertas - there was also the Socialist Party, the Peoples Movement (McKenna and McGrath), the People before Profit Alliance, Cóir etc. But Libertas are the only folks with the real financial muscle to mount a viable electoral challenge to the Civil War parties and with the demise of the PDs, their wider message may have the nucleus to be what the PDs used to be on economic issues and what no other party other than SF is on EU issues. There is definitely a potential base for a Eurocritical party in this country but it has to step up to the plate. We can't go on with 94% of Dail Eireann being on the opposite side of the debate on the future of Europe to the side the people are on.

humanji

Eurosceptic2008 wrote: »

In fact, I would say their running for election has the potential to redress a lopsided pro-Lisbon bias in the composition of the Irish cohort of MEPs, of which less than 1/6th (2 out of 13) are anti-Lisbon, compared to 54% of the electorate.

Wasn't it 54% of those who voted, not of the total electorate, which would make it just over a quarter of the electorate? So if we're going down the road of warping statistics, it can be said that almost 3/4 of the electorate didn't say no to Lisbon.

Did Libertas state that they weren't going to run for any elections, before? I thought I read somewhere that they stated there only existed to ensure a no vote and had no other agenda. If this is true, I would of thought that people may come to believe that if they can U-turn on one promise, they can easily U-turn on any other promise. Then again, I suppose FF have been doing U-turns for years and people will still vote for them.

Eurosceptic2008

humanji wrote: »

Wasn't it 54% of those who voted, not of the total electorate, which would make it just over a quarter of the electorate? So if we're going down the road of warping statistics, it can be said that almost 3/4 of the electorate didn't say no to Lisbon.

And you can say even more of them didn't say yes to Lisbon. In a democracy, it's the decision of the people who vote that counts.

humanji

Eurosceptic2008 wrote: »

And you can say even more of them didn't say yes to Lisbon. In a democracy, it's the decision of the people who vote that counts.

Of course. But what would be a bold faced lie is to claim 54% of the electorate voted no. You see where I'm going with this?

turgon

Eurosceptic2008 wrote: »

I would say their running for election has the potential to redress a lopsided pro-Lisbon bias in the composition of the Irish cohort of MEPs, of which less than 1/6th (2 out of 13) are anti-Lisbon, compared to 54% of the electorate.

A lot of NO voters arenst anti-Lisbon. I voted NO, I am not anti-Lisbon. I felt that no Lisbon was better than a Lisbon, this however in no way makes me anti it. I would not be dissapointed it Lisbon passed, it would just be a different set of pros and cons to those under which we are currently under.

As well, a lot of my fellow No voters were ignorant and voting on non-issues such as abortion and neutrality. They were anti-abortion and anti-neutrality. This does not make them anti Lisbon either as they were clearly decieved as to what Lisbon is.

oscarBravo

turgon wrote: »

A lot of NO voters arenst anti-Lisbon. I voted NO, I am not anti-Lisbon. I felt that no Lisbon was better than a Lisbon, this however in no way makes me anti it.

I'm trying to follow your reasoning here, and failing miserably.

Why would you vote "no" if you're not anti-Lisbon?

Scofflaw

oscarBravo wrote: »

I'm trying to follow your reasoning here, and failing miserably.

Why would you vote "no" if you're not anti-Lisbon?

I think turgon means that while he doesn't regard Lisbon as worth voting Yes to, he doesn't object strongly to it.

To put it another way, presented with a choice between Nice and Lisbon, he prefers Nice, although he doesn't dislike Lisbon.

Obviously, I am open to correction!

cordially,
Scofflaw

oscarBravo

Scofflaw wrote: »

To put it another way, presented with a choice between Nice and Lisbon, he prefers Nice, although he doesn't dislike Lisbon.

Does anyone seriously think that's the choice on offer, beyond the extremely short term?

Scofflaw

Bob Z wrote: »

I reckon it will. I dont know much(anything) about their policies but i think

1)people who previously voted against the treaty may vote for it if they dont agree with their policies eg IF Libertas emerge as a UKIP type party or Very Catholic People who voted
2)it will allow the other parties to attack libertas instead of defending the Lisbon Treaty.
3) People who may listened to Libertas before might not now if they see them as politicians and they might think their plan all along was to get elected

I think that's why Ganley is so keen to make the elections about the Treaty. He doesn't then need to come out with policies any more than in the referendum.

Of course, if Lisbon is killed off, it will be dead about 6 months into Libertas' five year term as MEPs...
cordially,
Scofflaw

Scofflaw

oscarBravo wrote: »

Does anyone seriously think that's the choice on offer, beyond the extremely short term?

Well, if Lisbon doesn't get ratified, it does set the choice to be between Nice and something other than Lisbon, and which might appeal to turgon more than Lisbon. If it doesn't, he can always vote No again.

That seems reasonable to me - except, obviously, that whatever is produced is likely to be fundamentally the same again, because the issues haven't changed, and the countries involved haven't changed.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Eurosceptic2008

oscarBravo wrote: »

Does anyone seriously think that's the choice on offer, beyond the extremely short term?

Yes. There is no precedent for the principle of unanimity for EU treaties to come into force being breached.

oscarBravo

Eurosceptic2008 wrote: »

Yes. There is no precedent for the principle of unanimity for EU treaties to come into force being breached.

So as long as we keep dragging up red herrings about abortion and conscription, the other member states are permanently stuck with the Nice treaty?

Bob Z

Eurosceptic2008 wrote: »

I don't really understand what you mean by "harm". Care to explain? If you mean will it damage the no campaign, then no. In fact, I would say their running for election has the potential to redress a lopsided pro-Lisbon bias in the composition of the Irish cohort of MEPs, of which less than 1/6th (2 out of 13) are anti-Lisbon, compared to 54% of the electorate. What I really want to see though is for that balance to be redressed at national level in Dail Eireann. So hopefully they will run there too. Yes - I know there was far more to the no campaign than just Libertas - there was also the Socialist Party, the Peoples Movement (McKenna and McGrath), the People before Profit Alliance, Cóir etc. But Libertas are the only folks with the real financial muscle to mount a viable electoral challenge to the Civil War parties and with the demise of the PDs, their wider message may have the nucleus to be what the PDs used to be on economic issues and what no other party other than SF is on EU issues. There is definitely a potential base for a Eurocritical party in this country but it has to step up to the plate. We can't go on with 94% of Dail Eireann being on the opposite side of the debate on the future of Europe to the side the people are on.

What i mean is i think a lot of people voted against lisbon because they diddnt know anything about it. The parties didnt really campaign for it that much they just seemed to assume it would get passed. Also i think that they didnt trust the politicans on this issue. It seemed to me as if they didnt want to debate lisbon it was more like it was it was being sneaked into law.

Now if Libertas become politicians themselves wont it be possible that the public wont trust them either? Especially as i think the other parties arent going to debate this time either? i think they will attack libertas directly
So instead of the pros and cons of lisbon it will be ff+fg+labour+greens against libertas.

ShooterSF

Bob Z wrote: »

What i mean is i think a lot of people voted against lisbon because they diddnt know anything about it. The parties didnt really campaign for it that much they just seemed to assume it would get passed. Also i think that they didnt trust the politicans on this issue. It seemed to me as if they didnt want to debate lisbon it was more like it was it was being sneaked into law.

Now if Libertas become politicians themselves wont it be possible that the public wont trust them either? Especially as i think the other parties arent going to debate this time either? i think they will attack libertas directly
So instead of the pros and cons of lisbon it will be ff+fg+labour+greens against libertas + SF.

I think people forget SF's addition to the no vote. The two compliment each other very well with Libertas' huge finances and media blitz and SF's ground level skills e.g offering people lifts to polling stations and canvasing door to door.

On-topic I think maybe down the road it could harm them. As is they were a fresh opposition to stuffy condescending civil war parties and were a nice break. However their ability to twist the truth in a similar fashion as the current parties would, though some would argue lying is necessary to make it in politics, expose them more as just as bad but with an alternate opinion.

If they run and a re-vote in 6 months I'd expect them to do just aswell because like last time they'll lie about the treaty while FF/FG will ignore the treaty (other than their "independent commission") and attack Libertas again. So basically a carbon copy of last time...

ejmaztec

It seems to be spreading............................



http://www.radio.cz/en/news/110749#2
New pro-Klaus Eurosceptic party may be on horizon

Lively discussions are underway with regards to the creation of a new Eurosceptic political party, reports the daily Lidové Noviny. According to the paper, the new party could be ready to field candidates in elections to the European Parliament next June. The party would reportedly be comprised of allies and supporters of the Czech president Václav Klaus, and would be called Libertas.cz. This name would effectively make the party a wing of the Irish lobby group of the same name that campaigned successfully for a “no” vote in a referendum in June on whether to accept the Lisbon Treaty. The Civic Democrat-led Czech government supports the treaty and would like to see it passed during its upcoming EU presidency. Speaking to Lidové Noviny, the Civic Democrat leader and Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolánek conceded that the formation of such a party – essentially a Civic Democrat splinter faction, was inevitable. The Civic Democrats were formed by President Klaus, who is the party’s honorary chairman.