Maiden favourites system.

rynners · 22-11-2008 5:56pm #1

If any of you listen to sportslive you'll know that the head fella (can't remember is name) advocates the following rule.

A horse that has shown promise first time out that is less than 2/1 in a maiden (on the current start) you leave them alone. I've been watching this and to be honest we've I've got bitten hard in the past by lumping on only to see the second fav go in.

Can we keep a watch on these favs for the next while until a clear pattern emerges? (it's only for flat racing).
start with spencer's mount miss beat in the 620 wolves tonight.. i think this is clear thinkers race despite the drift.
If you spot one and know the result please post it up..
on the same card in the 7.20 captainrisk is a bet as he's more than 2/1.

luckyjimbobs · 22-11-2008 6:11pm

quickest way to poor house is backing short price horses in maidens

Trust me i was an odds compiler for uk company and loved punters betting

on horses second or third time at short price in a maiden after its

unlucky/promising/green first or second run. (EXCUSE AS REQUIRED)

Stick to listed/group class on flat, handicap chases over jumps and believe

it or not a/w handicaps (4 yr olds and upwards) but remember on a/w

wolverhampton southwell kempton great leighs lingfield keep to horses who

have shown form on track they are racing VERY IMPORTANT

rynners · 22-11-2008 6:29pm

good thing miss beat beaten @ 8/13... good start.. money saved.

luckyjimbobs · 22-11-2008 6:34pm

Fill your boots on royal challenge

Anything over 3/1 is massive

GREAT PRICE FOR A CONSISTENT PERFORMER

corban · 22-11-2008 7:27pm

captainrisk was second... it'll be interesting to see how this works out

rynners · 22-11-2008 8:33pm

luckyjimbobs wrote: »

Fill your boots on royal challenge

Anything over 3/1 is massive

GREAT PRICE FOR A CONSISTENT PERFORMER

please take your tips elsewhere. this is a thread to follow a system. not "fill your boots because I say so"

rynners · 22-11-2008 8:36pm

corban wrote: »

captainrisk was second... it'll be interesting to see how this works out

corban, just to clarify. They don't suddenly become a bet if over 2/1 (i just fancied captainrisk at 4s). It's a case of you may bet if over 2/1 but anything under is a leave alone as it turns negative ev.

rynners · 22-11-2008 8:38pm

luckyjimbobs wrote: »

quickest way to poor house is backing short price horses in maidens

Trust me i was an odds compiler for uk company and loved punters betting

on horses second or third time at short price in a maiden after its

unlucky/promising/green first or second run. (EXCUSE AS REQUIRED)

Stick to listed/group class on flat, handicap chases over jumps and believe

it or not a/w handicaps (4 yr olds and upwards) but remember on a/w

wolverhampton southwell kempton great leighs lingfield keep to horses who

have shown form on track they are racing VERY IMPORTANT

been looking through your previous posts and if you were ever an odds compiler I swear I'll eat a sheeps brain.

luckyjimbobs · 22-11-2008 9:07pm

start eating then cos was one in liverpool for stanleys

rynners · 22-11-2008 9:13pm

pm me your name and surname and I promise I'll post a picture on here if you're telling the truth.. years?

rynners · 22-11-2008 9:14pm

a pic of me eating sheeps brain with the date and id confirmed by syndicate.

luckyjimbobs · 22-11-2008 9:18pm

Not putting name or anything on here.

Dont need to dont want to.

Anyway good luck punting

rynners · 22-11-2008 9:19pm

luckyjimbobs wrote: »

Not putting name or anything on here.

Dont need to dont want to.

Anyway good luck punting

pm me with it.... (click on my name and send me a person email/message).
It will not go public, i wouldn't do that.

rynners · 22-11-2008 9:21pm

I'm not trying to get at you or anything btw. Just if I can confirm I'll stick to my word. It'd be a lot of fun if I did have to post myself eating sheeps brain..

rynners · 22-11-2008 9:29pm

luckyjimbobs wrote: »

Fill your boots on royal challenge

Anything over 3/1 is massive

GREAT PRICE FOR A CONSISTENT PERFORMER

nowhere ... it was a 0-75... so didn't fill boots thankfully.

luckyjimbobs · 22-11-2008 9:29pm

Ah well just done my conkers on royal challenge

Have to tell the kids santa was killed by bin laden

rynners · 22-11-2008 9:32pm

ok. can we please have the thread back to the maiden favs system. feel free to post anything on that particular topic jimbob.. especially if you see one that fits the description and know the result.

luckyjimbobs · 22-11-2008 9:36pm

Here is a system for you to consider

Back second favourites against a GODOLPHIN newcomer

Godolphin have a policy of wanting to give horse easy first race and

jockeys are under instruction not to use whip on horse.

Rather lose race than subject horse to a tough fiirst race.

Value taking them on

rynners · 22-11-2008 9:41pm

err.. are you sure you're not just thinking of their under-performing horses of the first 3/4 of this season? seem to remember last year every newcomer bolting in..
and if you wish to discuss this system please start a new thread

luckyjimbobs · 22-11-2008 9:43pm

Go have a look over 5 years to get a proper assessment.

Nobody judges on just a season.

Anyway keep in mind for next season

rynners · 22-11-2008 9:46pm

luckyjimbobs wrote: »

Go have a look over 5 years to get a proper assessment.

Nobody judges on just a season.

Anyway keep in mind for next season

you have to judge Policy (you stated it was policy) on a season.

luckyjimbobs · 22-11-2008 9:50pm

Do you know how many winners godolphin had with their 2yr olds

over the last five years?

Total runners 541

Total winners?

Have a guess see how close you get

Bonus point for the returns to a £

luckyjimbobs · 22-11-2008 9:52pm

SAEED BIN SUROORNewmarket, Suffolk

Statistics

Current Form

Trainer Engagements

GB IRE All Races Flat Jumps Any Turf All Weather Last 5 Seasons 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 By Course Distance Month Horse RaceType Jockey AgeWINSRUNS%2nds3rds4thsWIN PRIZETOTAL PRIZE£1 STAKE
2yo135541251086740£959,937.33£1,343,204.88-34.063yo149634241077155£1,855,957.68£3,211,377.13-63.274yo+10953220805460£4,062,767.24£5,847,118.48-6.30TOTAL393170723295192155£6,878,662.25

luckyjimbobs · 22-11-2008 9:53pm

oops that didnt come as planned

135 winners 541 runners loss £34 to £1

rynners · 22-11-2008 10:02pm

luckyjimbobs wrote: »

SAEED BIN SUROORNewmarket, Suffolk

Statistics Current Form Trainer Engagements

GB IRE All Races Flat Jumps Any Turf All Weather Last 5 Seasons 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 By Course Distance Month Horse RaceType Jockey AgeWINSRUNS%2nds3rds4thsWIN PRIZETOTAL PRIZE£1 STAKE
2yo135541251086740£959,937.33£1,343,204.88-34.063yo149634241077155£1,855,957.68£3,211,377.13-63.274yo+10953220805460£4,062,767.24£5,847,118.48-6.30TOTAL393170723295192155£6,878,662.25

how the hell am i going to find out if they don't win first time out from this? go through every horse? ..

rynners · 22-11-2008 10:06pm

luckyjimbobs wrote: »

oops that didnt come as planned

135 winners 541 runners loss £34 to £1

assuming this is a statistic for their first time outers... 25% win rate...WOW great policy of not giving horses a hard time?.. loss rate to backing blindly has nothing to do with backing the 2nd fav...
i think you've lost the plot.

rynners · 22-11-2008 10:08pm

and you've either ruined this thread or made it.. can't decide. For sure though it has gone too far off topic.

corban · 23-11-2008 1:37am

rynners wrote: »

corban, just to clarify. They don't suddenly become a bet if over 2/1 (i just fancied captainrisk at 4s). It's a case of you may bet if over 2/1 but anything under is a leave alone as it turns negative ev.

i understand was just pointing out what happened.... we need to get this thread back to its objective.... jimbob needs to leave this thread to what its supposed to be..... start your own threads for any system you may have jimbob and we'll follow it....

rynners · 24-11-2008 9:33am

Lord chancellor Lingfield 12.30 might come into the system. Featherweight in the 2.35 would not come under the system as its for once raced maidens.

rynners · 24-11-2008 10:31pm

For the record. Neither of the 2 maiden races at lingfield today qualified for this system. Winner of the 1st maiden was over 2/1 and winner of 2nd maiden wasn't a once-raced maiden.

wb · 26-11-2008 2:12pm

Rynners, I have software that can back-test systems. If you give me a set of rules, I'll do it for you. (EG: Race is a flat maiden, horse was 2nd LTO etc).

rynners · 26-11-2008 2:21pm

the rules are simple. once raced before, in a maiden less than 2/1 leave alone. Thanks for offering to help.

rynners · 26-11-2008 2:22pm

once raced as in raced only one time before.

wb · 26-11-2008 2:33pm

Rynners, I ran a report using the following:

Horse is favourite
Race is a maiden
Price is less than 2/1
Horse ran only once before
UK and Ireland racing

The strike rate is good, but it shows a loss to SP.

Since 2003, there were 1496 bets, of which 697 horses won (46.59%) Had you placed €1 on each, you'd show a loss of €139.57.

If you break it down by odds, horses priced 1/2 almost break even and have a strike rate of over 73%:

rynners · 26-11-2008 2:39pm

wb wrote: »

Rynners, I ran a report using the following:
Horse is favourite

Race is a maiden

Price is less than 2/1

Horse ran only once before

UK and Ireland racing

The strike rate is good, but it shows a loss to SP.

Since 2003, there were 1496 bets, of which 697 horses won (46.59%) Had you placed €1 on each, you'd show a loss of €139.57.

If you break it down by odds, horses priced 1/2 almost break even and have a strike rate of over 73%:

great! just to make sure though is this for flat only? I forgot to mention that but did mention it earlier in my thread.. thanks a million for carrying this out.

wb · 26-11-2008 2:40pm

rynners wrote: »

great! just to make sure though is this for flat only? I forgot to mention that but did mention it earlier in my thread.. thanks a million for carrying this out.

Yep, that's flat only (excludes All Weather however).

rynners · 26-11-2008 3:53pm

I suppose it is minus ev then, by about 10%. Any chance you can run the same scenario for 6/4 or less? I think this should show a bigger loss..

rynners · 26-11-2008 4:06pm

ah right.. i see the image now..
i can work it out from this i think

wb · 26-11-2008 4:06pm

rynners wrote: »

I suppose it is minus ev then, by about 10%. Any chance you can run the same scenario for 6/4 or less? I think this should show a bigger loss..

Since 2003:

Bets: 1235
Wins: 617
Strike Rate: 49.96
Loss to €1 stake: €98.42
Place strike rate: 79.92%

I find maiden favourites most interesting when broken down by course. Some show way higher win rates than others. The below is simply flat maiden favs, broken down by course:

(course must have had at least 25 bets to qualify, data is from 2003 to the present)

Track ... Bets ... Wins ... WinStrike ... Profit/Loss to €1

Chester ... 70 ... 43 ... 61.43% ... 20.16
Carlisle ... 78 ... 40 ... 51.28% ... 5.75
Tipperary ... 115 ... 58 ... 50.43% ... 2.01
Warwick ... 163 ... 82 ... 50.31% ... 25.82
Tramore ... 38 ... 19 ... 50.00% ... 7.22
Hamilton ... 135 ... 66 ... 48.89% ... 3.35
Lingfield ... 146 ... 71 ... 48.63% ... 2.96
Ayr ... 108 ... 52 ... 48.15% ... 0.98
Haydock ... 180 ... 83 ... 46.11% ... 12.79
Galway ... 63 ... 29 ... 46.03% ... 2.74
Leicester ... 190 ... 87 ... 45.79% ... 0.66
Windsor ... 264 ... 120 ... 45.45% ... 52.63
Thirsk ... 168 ... 74 ... 44.05% ... -9.19
Pontefract ... 162 ... 71 ... 43.83% ... -3.57
Musselburgh ... 121 ... 52 ... 42.98% ... -8.32
Sandown ... 128 ... 55 ... 42.97% ... 9.07
Brighton ... 156 ... 67 ... 42.95% ... -20.98
Folkestone ... 170 ... 73 ... 42.94% ... -4.54
Beverley ... 165 ... 70 ... 42.42% ... -0.41
Kempton ... 66 ... 28 ... 42.42% ... -0.08
Newcastle ... 170 ... 72 ... 42.35% ... -7.91
Ballinrobe ... 45 ... 19 ... 42.22% ... 7.73
Bath ... 210 ... 88 ... 41.90% ... -5.51
Limerick ... 60 ... 25 ... 41.67% ... -0.1
Catterick ... 159 ... 66 ... 41.51% ... -8.56
Wexford ... 29 ... 12 ... 41.38% ... -2.24
Navan ... 82 ... 33 ... 40.24% ... 4.96
Bellewstown ... 40 ... 16 ... 40.00% ... 0.68
Newmarket ... 347 ... 137 ... 39.48% ... -0.31
Down Royal ... 33 ... 13 ... 39.39% ... -2.01
Leopardstown ... 161 ... 63 ... 39.13% ... -14.12
Epsom ... 46 ... 18 ... 39.13% ... -6.38
Yarmouth ... 197 ... 77 ... 39.09% ... -29.63
Nottingham ... 248 ... 96 ... 38.71% ... -32.73
Redcar ... 189 ... 73 ... 38.62% ... -23.13
Ripon ... 151 ... 58 ... 38.41% ... -28.45
Naas ... 96 ... 36 ... 37.50% ... -10.42
Cork ... 91 ... 34 ... 37.36% ... -21.72
Goodwood ... 187 ... 69 ... 36.90% ... -9.44
Salisbury ... 165 ... 60 ... 36.36% ... -9.93
Newbury ... 207 ... 75 ... 36.23% ... -1.24
Doncaster ... 114 ... 41 ... 35.96% ... -19.09
York ... 89 ... 32 ... 35.96% ... -4.38
Chepstow ... 119 ... 42 ... 35.29% ... -30.28
Roscommon ... 85 ... 30 ... 35.29% ... -8.33
Gowran Park ... 120 ... 42 ... 35.00% ... -21.47
Curragh ... 175 ... 61 ... 34.86% ... -18.79
Sligo ... 26 ... 9 ... 34.62% ... -1.17
Tralee ... 29 ... 10 ... 34.48% ... -7.14
Fairyhouse ... 67 ... 22 ... 32.84% ... -13.14
Listowel ... 47 ... 15 ... 31.91% ... -10.2
Killarney ... 34 ... 10 ... 29.41% ... -9.48
Ascot ... 29 ... 8 ... 27.59% ... -11.34

rynners · 26-11-2008 4:10pm

wb wrote: »

Since 2003:

Bets: 1235
Wins: 617
Strike Rate: 49.96
Loss to €1 stake: €98.42
Place strike rate: 79.92%

I find maiden favourites most interesting when broken down by course. Some show way higher win rates than others. The below is simply flat maiden favs, broken down by course:

(course must have had at least 25 bets to qualify, data is from 2003 to the present)

Track ... Bets ... Wins ... WinStrike ... Profit/Loss to €1

Chester ... 70 ... 43 ... 61.43% ... 20.16
Carlisle ... 78 ... 40 ... 51.28% ... 5.75
Tipperary ... 115 ... 58 ... 50.43% ... 2.01
Warwick ... 163 ... 82 ... 50.31% ... 25.82
Tramore ... 38 ... 19 ... 50.00% ... 7.22
Hamilton ... 135 ... 66 ... 48.89% ... 3.35
Lingfield ... 146 ... 71 ... 48.63% ... 2.96
Ayr ... 108 ... 52 ... 48.15% ... 0.98
Haydock ... 180 ... 83 ... 46.11% ... 12.79
Galway ... 63 ... 29 ... 46.03% ... 2.74
Leicester ... 190 ... 87 ... 45.79% ... 0.66
Windsor ... 264 ... 120 ... 45.45% ... 52.63
Thirsk ... 168 ... 74 ... 44.05% ... -9.19
Pontefract ... 162 ... 71 ... 43.83% ... -3.57
Musselburgh ... 121 ... 52 ... 42.98% ... -8.32
Sandown ... 128 ... 55 ... 42.97% ... 9.07
Brighton ... 156 ... 67 ... 42.95% ... -20.98
Folkestone ... 170 ... 73 ... 42.94% ... -4.54
Beverley ... 165 ... 70 ... 42.42% ... -0.41
Kempton ... 66 ... 28 ... 42.42% ... -0.08
Newcastle ... 170 ... 72 ... 42.35% ... -7.91
Ballinrobe ... 45 ... 19 ... 42.22% ... 7.73
Bath ... 210 ... 88 ... 41.90% ... -5.51
Limerick ... 60 ... 25 ... 41.67% ... -0.1
Catterick ... 159 ... 66 ... 41.51% ... -8.56
Wexford ... 29 ... 12 ... 41.38% ... -2.24
Navan ... 82 ... 33 ... 40.24% ... 4.96
Bellewstown ... 40 ... 16 ... 40.00% ... 0.68
Newmarket ... 347 ... 137 ... 39.48% ... -0.31
Down Royal ... 33 ... 13 ... 39.39% ... -2.01
Leopardstown ... 161 ... 63 ... 39.13% ... -14.12
Epsom ... 46 ... 18 ... 39.13% ... -6.38
Yarmouth ... 197 ... 77 ... 39.09% ... -29.63
Nottingham ... 248 ... 96 ... 38.71% ... -32.73
Redcar ... 189 ... 73 ... 38.62% ... -23.13
Ripon ... 151 ... 58 ... 38.41% ... -28.45
Naas ... 96 ... 36 ... 37.50% ... -10.42
Cork ... 91 ... 34 ... 37.36% ... -21.72
Goodwood ... 187 ... 69 ... 36.90% ... -9.44
Salisbury ... 165 ... 60 ... 36.36% ... -9.93
Newbury ... 207 ... 75 ... 36.23% ... -1.24
Doncaster ... 114 ... 41 ... 35.96% ... -19.09
York ... 89 ... 32 ... 35.96% ... -4.38
Chepstow ... 119 ... 42 ... 35.29% ... -30.28
Roscommon ... 85 ... 30 ... 35.29% ... -8.33
Gowran Park ... 120 ... 42 ... 35.00% ... -21.47
Curragh ... 175 ... 61 ... 34.86% ... -18.79
Sligo ... 26 ... 9 ... 34.62% ... -1.17
Tralee ... 29 ... 10 ... 34.48% ... -7.14
Fairyhouse ... 67 ... 22 ... 32.84% ... -13.14
Listowel ... 47 ... 15 ... 31.91% ... -10.2
Killarney ... 34 ... 10 ... 29.41% ... -9.48
Ascot ... 29 ... 8 ... 27.59% ... -11.34

can i vote you single most impressive post of the year somewhere? well done and thanks..

wb · 26-11-2008 4:45pm

rynners wrote: »

can i vote you single most impressive post of the year somewhere? well done and thanks..

Lol, cheers Rynners. I've a section on Let's Bet for people with data requests, so if you want any more systems ran, just shout over there (my username is Hill16 over there):

http://www.letsbet.ie/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=43

franny1 · 30-11-2008 10:52pm

rynners , i dont think yourself and jimbob would get on so well if he was in the syndicate

rynners · 30-11-2008 10:56pm

franny1 wrote: »

rynners , i dont think yourself and jimbob would get on so well if he was in the syndicate

he's not.. but ah no.. I don't mind the fella. Think he's a bit of a dreamer that's all..

Maiden favourites system.

Jimbob an odds compiler? 3 votes

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