IRB ranking points & next weekend

TarfHead

Can anyone here provide a dummy's guide to the possible scenarios ? I tried following the guide on www.irb.com, and had to have a lie-down

If we assume both home sides win, then the ranking are unchanged ? Correct ?

If IRE win by <15 and SCO win by >15, then SCO could overtake IRE. Correct ?

If IRE lose, and SCO win, then they overtake IRE. Correct ?

The one thing I took from the IRB guide was that the fact IRE are playing ARG, and SCO play CAN, aside from the potential margin of victory, is immaterial for ranking points purposes.

Noopti

Not sure, the IRB ranking system is a mystery. I think the best way to look at it is that we should win. If we win we are safe.

jprender

Noopti wrote: »

Not sure, the IRB ranking system is a mystery. I think the best way to look at it is that we should win. If we win we are safe.

That's how we should be approaching this anyway.

RuggieBear

If we win the scotland result is meaningless. if we lose we need scotland to lose.

crisco10

RuggieBear wrote: »

If we win the scotland result is meaningless. if we lose we need scotland to lose.

i was just coming on to ask about this! What if, as mentioned above, we win by less than 15 but scotland by more than 15?

I don't understand the rankings at all but it seems wierd that SCO could overtake us when both teams have very simliar results (lose to two teams ranked above, beat canada). Obv this is only the case if we lose to the Argies...

twenty8

Ok - it is lunchtime so I have tried to make some calculations. I can't read the graph properly - so I might be a few decimal points out. But have a look

Current ratings

Ireland (77.18) v Arg (82.82)

Home rating taken into account
80.18 v 82.82 = +2.64

Scotland (76.76) v Canada (69.12)
Home rating (+3)
79.76 v 69.12 = -10.64


According to the rough graphs on the IRB website I worked out that this means:

Ireland win - +1.3
Ireland draw - +0.3
Ireland lose - -0.75

Ireland win by 15 points - +1.95
Ireland lose by 15 points - -1.125

Scotland win - 0
Scotland draw - -1
Scotland lose - -2.0

Scotland win by 15 points +0
Scotland lose by 15 points - -3

So - what the hell does this all mean?? Well, I am presuming that Scotland win.

Ireland win - regardless of by how much Ireland will finish ahead of Scotland
Ireland draw then Ireland will finish ahead of Scotland
Ireland lose by less than 15 will mean Ireland on 76.43 and therefore Ireland finish behind Scotland (76.76)
and of course if Ireland lose by more than 15 points it is curtains!!

So, it looks like we have to pray for an Irish win or draw.

TarfHead

crisco10 wrote: »

I don't understand the rankings at all but it seems wierd that SCO could overtake us when both teams have very simliar results (lose to two teams ranked above, beat canada). Obv this is only the case if we lose to the Argies...

That's the scenario I am most unclear about. If SCO win by 15 or more, could they overtake IRE, assuming IRE don't win by 15 or more ?

The 15 or more piece is significant, according to the IRB system. SCO would get 50% more rating points for a win by more than 15, that IRE would for a win by less than 15. ARG being ranked higher than CAN is, I think, irrelevant.

twenty8

No. If Scotland win by 15 they still gain 0 points as they are too far ahead of Canada to gain any ranking points.

Scotland can only lose points - If they draw they lose 1 and if the lose they lose 2.0 or 3 if they lose by more than 15.

crisco10

twenty8 wrote: »

Ok - it is lunchtime so I have tried to make some calculations. I can't read the graph properly - so I might be a few decimal points out. But have a look

Current ratings

Ireland (77.18) v Arg (82.82)

Home rating taken into account
80.18 v 82.82 = +2.64

Scotland (76.76) v Canada (69.12)
Home rating (+3)
79.76 v 69.12 = -10.64


According to the rough graphs on the IRB website I worked out that this means:

Ireland win - +1.3
Ireland draw - +0.3
Ireland lose - -0.75

Ireland win by 15 points - +1.95
Ireland lose by 15 points - -1.125

Scotland win - 0
Scotland draw - -1
Scotland lose - -2.0

Scotland win by 15 points +0
Scotland lose by 15 points - -3

So - what the hell does this all mean?? Well, I am presuming that Scotland win.

Ireland win - regardless of by how much Ireland will finish ahead of Scotland
Ireland draw then Ireland will finish ahead of Scotland
Ireland lose by less than 15 will mean Ireland on 76.43 and therefore Ireland finish behind Scotland (76.76)
and of course if Ireland lose by more than 15 points it is curtains!!

So, it looks like we have to pray for an Irish win or draw.

well that looks good to me.

So its a win/draw or bust for ireland realistically.

It still annoys me slightly about the similarity of our results and they gain more on us. This seems to be because the ranking points difference between Sco and NZ when they played was bigger than the difference between Ire and NZ when we played. Ditto SA and Argentina. So does that mean they are getting rewarded for having less ranking points at the start of the AI's?

tres annoying if so....

simple task for the lads though, win.

TarfHead

twenty8 wrote: »

No. If Scotland win by 15 they still gain 0 points as they are too far ahead of Canada to gain any ranking points.

Are you sure ?

Copied from www.irb.com

Q. Do sides earn credit for losing narrowly to higher rated opponents?

No they don't. In this system, you can't win points for losing, or lose points for winning. While it may be attractive to award points for heroic defeats, it is less appealing to deduct points from a team that has won. If the close match was an indication of a genuine shift in relative strength, this would be reflected in other results.

Q. Are all matches treated as equally important?

We have added a weighting for matches in the World Cup Finals, to recognise the unique importance and prestige of this event. All other full international matches between member unions, where players earn caps for playing for their country, currently count the same.


So, surely SCO must gain more than 0 ranking points for walloping CAN ?

twenty8

I am pretty sure - The total points awarded is 0. So the match between Canada and Scotland would only count for points if Scot lost. ie if Canada won then they would get 2 points and Scot would lose 2 points.

According to what I have calculated if Canada lost by 1 point they would still get nothing (which would tally with the IRB note)

jprender

Well I suppose that can be answered quite quickly.

Did we gain any ranking points for beating Canada ?

That'll answer the question !!:)


(I don't know!!)

twenty8

Just checked and the Answer is no. We have been 77.18 since March. Also - NZ got no points for beating us.