Are IL&P shares really in Trouble?

Glacier

Do you think they will go back up in value much in the next couple of weeks?

Diarmuid

I don't think anyone has developed psychic powers since the last time you asked.

Glacier

Yeah ,but no they've fallen dramatically since last time, what's going on?

ranger4

Glacier wrote: »

Yeah ,but no they've fallen dramatically since last time, what's going on?

Will probably rally along with the banks this week before retesting near october lows.

Idu

ranger4 wrote: »

Will probably rally along with the banks this week before retesting near october lows.

why?

ranger4

janets_on_clubs wrote: »

why?

Up 4.5% on lse this morn, i feel the bear rally is runnning out of steam and stocks will retreat later in week.

Samson

Glacier wrote: »

Do you think they will go back up in value much in the next couple of weeks?

Depends on what you regard as "much".
Personally, I'd said not very likely.

How many shares do you have?
When did you buy?
What price did you buy at?

I have shares in AIB, BOI, Anglo Irish and IL&P.
These were worth a small fortune quite some time ago. Now...not so much.
However, any shares I hold are a long term investment for me, so I have no intention of panic selling. They will eventually rise again (not so sure about Anglo Irish though) - this just means that I'll have to wait 10 years or so before I buy that yacht I've been promising myself.

Idu

ranger4 wrote: »

Up 4.5% on lse this morn, i feel the bear rally is runnning out of steam and stocks will retreat later in week.

you know there's a 99% chance of a rate cut on Thursday right?

ranger4

janets_on_clubs wrote: »

you know there's a 99% chance of a rate cut on Thursday right?

yep, Good chance markets have allready priced in a 0.5 cut, If 0.75+ happens i feel stocks could rally further.

Baird

janets_on_clubs wrote: »

you know there's a 99% chance of a rate cut on Thursday right?

Unless its over 1% at this stage then it will not move the markets all that much.
Think whoever wins the election will cause the markets to rally for different reasons.
McCain would be much better for the economy and Obama will be better for international relations.
Either way can see the markets making more gains or moving sideways for the next week or so

pocketdooz

As for as I know, IL&P debenutures are due next year - IF (big IF) they are able to re-finance them , I'd imagine they will be at L + 4/5 - the only other option seems to be to raise equity on the open market (thus diluting the value of the shares) or find a buyer (who knows where this could lead).

If I held them i'd just sell, learn a lesson and move on - look at more defensive stocks like Liberty Global, Fresenius SE etc.

Forget about the banks for the moment






.

Glacier

30 shares. At one stage they were worth at 4.10 now they're 2.4, do you envision them going up to about 3-3.5 again?

pocketdooz

Glacier wrote: »

30 shares. At one stage they were worth at 4.10 now they're 2.4, do you envision them going up to about 3-3.5 again?

All I'll say is if I owned them today I would sell and buy something else.

Glacier

I'll be leaving the country in a few weeks I just want to get something for them. You'd have to pay 35-40euro sale charge so they're not really worth selling. Can anyone help?

Idu

Glacier wrote: »

I'll be leaving the country in a few weeks I just want to get something for them. You'd have to pay 35-40euro sale charge so they're not really worth selling. Can anyone help?

I'll give you 1.5 for them

Baird

pocketdooz why on earth would you sell a stock that is down 85% in a year?
We are in the middle of a bear market rally and you are advising this guy to sell his IL&P at 2.50

Idu

Baird wrote: »

pocketdooz why on earth would you sell a stock that is down 85% in a year?
We are in the middle of a bear market rally and you are advising this guy to sell his IL&P at 2.50

Shuuuuuuuuuuuuut up! I want them;)

pocketdooz

Baird wrote: »

pocketdooz why on earth would you sell a stock that is down 85% in a year?
We are in the middle of a bear market rally and you are advising this guy to sell his IL&P at 2.50

I said if I held them now I'd sell.

They present no value to me at the moment, relative to what else is available.

There is a reason they are down so much. You don't have to agree with me but at least think logically about it. They are a losing proposition - so sell. Use the money for something better






.

Diarmuid

pocketdooz wrote: »

I said if I held them now I'd sell.

They present no value to me at the moment, relative to what else is available.

There is a reason they are down so much. You don't have to agree with me but at least think logically about it. They are a losing proposition - so sell. Use the money for something better

Isn't that the "classic" amateur investor mistake. Get in when the market is good and out when it bottoms?

Onikage

Diarmuid wrote: »

Isn't that the "classic" amateur investor mistake. Get in when the market is good and out when it bottoms?

Surely the classic amateur mistake is to borrow money to invest, and then lose it when they realise they don't have as clue what they're doing?

pocketdooz

Diarmuid wrote: »

Isn't that the "classic" amateur investor mistake. Get in when the market is good and out when it bottoms?

He (She ?) already owns the shares.

I can hardly turn back time and make Glacier not buy the shares, can I ?

My opinion at the moment is that ILP shares are not the best place for your investment capital. I think it should be pretty clear to see why. There are much better places to invest at present. THAT is the fundamental question here. 'Where is the best place for my money at present?" . . . NOT "When will these crappy bank shares get back to where I bought them at (not even taking into account the opportunity cost and the time value of that money)

A classic amateur's mistake is to hold losers too long and not admit they made a mistake

(FWIW I think the first time I suggested to Glacier to sell his bank shares was about 6 months ago)

ranger4

pocketdooz wrote: »

He (She ?) already owns the shares.

I can hardly turn back time and make Glacier not buy the shares, can I ?

My opinion at the moment is that ILP shares are not the best place for your investment capital. I think it should be pretty clear to see why. There are much better places to invest at present. THAT is the fundamental question here. 'Where is the best place for my money at present?" . . . NOT "When will these crappy bank shares get back to where I bought them at (not even taking into account the opportunity cost and the time value of that money)

A classic amateur's mistake is to hold losers too long and not admit they made a mistake

(FWIW I think the first time I suggested to Glacier to sell his bank shares was about 6 months ago)

Which of the irish companies do you see best investment opportunities.

Diarmuid

pocketdooz wrote: »

My opinion at the moment is that ILP shares are not the best place for your investment capital. I think it should be pretty clear to see why.

Well time will tell if it was "pretty clear", for me that's not so clear. The OP shares are at €2.60, regardless of what they paid for them, the only consideration now is if it's that €2.60 is undervalued or not. I wouldn't be so confident of calling it either way.

pocketdooz

ranger4 wrote: »

Which of the irish companies do you see best investment opportunities.

I wouldn't bother with any Irish shares at present.

Possibly an ISEQ ETF for the long term, that's it.

pocketdooz

Diarmuid wrote: »

Well time will tell if it was "pretty clear", for me that's not so clear. The OP shares are at €2.60, regardless of what they paid for them, the only consideration now is if it's that €2.60 is undervalued or not. I wouldn't be so confident of calling it either way.

Fair enough. We'll agree to disagree.

Baird

Diarmuid wrote: »

Well time will tell if it was "pretty clear", for me that's not so clear. The OP shares are at €2.60, regardless of what they paid for them, the only consideration now is if it's that €2.60 is undervalued or not. I wouldn't be so confident of calling it either way.

I would most definitely be confident in calling €2.60 for IL&P undervalued.
€2.60 is not a fair value for the groups life division let alone its like and banking division.
pocketdooz you really need to back up such sweeping statements with something other than "if the market says so then it must be true"

Glacier

Do you think it will Rise again though in the next week or so?

Baird

In the next week or so im not sure.
But i definitely think we will see at least 3.50 in the stock in the next few weeks.
Fair value for Permo is at least E5, might take a while to get there but i still think it will